– Dipta Shah
Although a statement of the obvious, sufficient stress cannot be placed on the need to emulate the Americans’ cautionary welcome of the seven party – Maoist alliance.
The desperate situation Nepal finds itself in tends to produce euphoric responses to any political development that has prospects for peace. However, an exhilarated reaction to the recent development in Nepal must not be permitted to overshadow realistic challenges that have yet to be navigated. For the proposed prospect (of bringing the Maoists into the mainstream) to be kept alive, public expectations must be carefully managed.
The key objective of the agreement reached in Delhi is to entice the Maoists to join the political mainstream (by undermining the monarchy). In order to accomplish this objective, one must begin with the explicit understanding that “selling” this proposition is probably the most challenging task the Maoist leadership has faced to date – assuming they are acting in good faith.
As if obtaining “buy-in” from multiple levels of the Maoist hierarchy was insufficient, the Maoist leadership must also demonstrate its commitment to disarmament and must take concrete steps to gain international legitimacy in this regard. The question of how to proceed should the results of the constituent assembly not be in line with Maoist expectations needs to be addressed explicitly and immediately.
Additional clarity is also required on which armed force is to maintain law and order during the proposed elections to a constituent assembly (and also during the interim). No room can be left to interpretation where the unacceptability of a future return to hostilities is concerned.
The guiding principle for concerned parties should be to move forward swiftly and decisively and take full advantage of the opportunity to compel the Maoists down an irreversible path of re-integration into legitimate Nepali politics. If lost, opportunities like this are unlikely to re-emerge.
All parties’ whose ultimate goal is the restoration of peace and democracy in Nepal must pressurize the Maoist leadership to act in unflinching and good faith – an indication of which could be the indefinite extension of the unilateral ceasefire and a continued cessation of hostilities.
Furthermore, if the seven-party alliance is to encourage Maoist participation in “peaceful” demonstrations, the leaders of this movement must remain accountable. Armed Maoists should not be permitted in protest programs and at no cost should the security forces be given excuses to engage “peaceful” demonstrators. Should any hint of instigation become evident, it would be to the ultimate detriment of the entire alliance.
The pressure that the agreement with the seven-parties puts on the Maoist organisation is insurmountable. Having filled their cadre with revolutionary dreams for over a decade, the Maoist leadership is now faced with the enormous task of shifting its operating paradigm in favor of a negotiated settlement. All out victory was never a realistic option so despite what the Maoists term this envisioned end-state, for everyone else, it is a negotiated settlement (if matters proceed as planned).
For the Maoists, the re-emergence of existing fissures within its ranks is a highly probable occurrence. While the political faction (led by Baburam Bhattarai) has always been more inclined to join the mainstream, the military faction (overwhelmingly controlled by Pushpa Dahal and company) may not be as forthcoming. Recent statements made by Pushpa Dahal already show signs of divergence from the 12-point agreement (and not even a full week has passed).
If the seven-party -Maoist alliance is to pose a credible challenge to the status quo, even the slightest hint of a vertical split cannot be permitted to pass.
The same is true of all other political parties. The exodus of well-known personalities from any of the seven-parties (as a consequence of the agreement with the Maoists) will be to the detriment of the 12-point understanding and to the goal of integrating the Maoists into mainstream politics.
Attrition rates will continue to be the key indicator regarding the success (or failure) of the seven-party-Maoist understanding. And this will not be an easy metric for party leaders to manage. Convincing party cadres across political boundaries to look beyond previous Maoist atrocities will not be simple. Many psychological (and physical) wounds are fresh in the minds of Maoist victims.
The perception that the UML stands to gain the most is widely held. By political calculation, this perception is accurate because the likelihood of disgruntled Nepali Congress leaders departing from the mother party is now heightened.
To add to this trend, the reintegration of Maoists into the political mainstream will definitely swell the ranks of the UML. Should the Baburam faction choose to work from within the bounds of legitimate politics and (disassociate with the militant wing of the Maoists), a significant augmentation of the UML support-base is a foregone conclusion.
These scenarios of “churn” combined with a gradual rise in nationalist sentiments could prove fatal to the initiative at hand. Leaders of the seven-party alliance bear the burden of preserving the composition of their parties while discussions with the Maoists progress.
As for the current government and the royal palace, it must be understood that over the long run, what is good for the country has to be good for the monarchy. Although executed at India’s behest, the Nepal government should embrace the outcome of the seven-party-Maoist understanding and proceed to offer flexible negotiating terms with expanded political participation.
Whether through the seven-party-Maoist understanding or otherwise, the goal is to re-establish peace and functional democratic polity in the Himalayan Kingdom. The opportunity for the Maoists to play the seven-parties against the monarchy should be immediately curtailed by accepting in principle, the 12-point agreement.
Since the thrust of the agreement is to end autocratic monarchy (which the King has stated to be his own intent), cause for fundamental disagreement does not exist. In fact, the required time-frame to transition from where Nepal is now, through re-enactment of the House, formation of an all-party government and finally, the holding of elections to a constituent assembly is likely to take at least three more years.
To the probable credit of the Americans, nowhere in the 12-point understanding is it stated that the propositions put forth are non-negotiable or final. If the seven-party alliance and the Maoists have entered into this agreement with Nepal’s best interest in mind, it would be incumbent upon the remaining power centers to oblige with at least a conditional offer to further dialogue.
Should the seven-party-Maoist alliance fail to accept an offer of good faith from the current government, all bets will be off.
As a precautionary measure, preparations for municipal polls should proceed as scheduled as should the day-to-day activities of Nepal’s security forces (unless negotiated otherwise).
The guiding principle for concerned parties should be to move forward swiftly and decisively and take full advantage of the opportunity to compel the Maoists down an irreversible path of re-integration into legitimate Nepali politics. If lost, opportunities like this are unlikely to re-emerge.
(Dipta Shah is a consultant with a US-based global advisory services firm. This is the second in a series of five articles on recent political developments (in Nepal) that Shah contributed to Nepalnews. Please send your comments/suggestions to [email protected])
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