The Unspoken Voice – China

November 28, 2005
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By Dipta Shah

The audacity displayed by the current Nepali government on several fronts has raised the eyebrows of more than a few China observers. Why the Nepal government continues to take actions that inadvertently antagonize the international community is an enigma, the key to which may lie with Nepal’s northern neighbor.

Since China has remained silent on most issues it considers the “internal affairs” of Nepal, reading Chinese policy is extremely difficult.

However, what can be inferred from statements made by Nepali officials is that China has taken a friendly attitude toward the current setup in Nepal. And to be sure, Nepal has returned the favor beginning with the closure of the Dalai Lama’s offices and more recently by forcing the induction of China as an observer into the SAARC community.

It is rumored that China voiced its displeasure at having been neglected during the nineties by Nepal. Although the modus operandi during the democratic years was focused on dealing with India, China’s diminishing relations with Nepal appear not to have gone unnoticed.

Despite the socio-economic revolution that has taken hold of China, the old guard remains firmly in power and many of the overarching perceptions remain unchanged. While an emerging breed of Chinese beaurocrats have learned to sophisticatedly navigate international laws and alleviate international concerns, the conservative arm of the Chinese policy machine remains alive and well and highly suspicious of American designs. This suspicion is reciprocated by a significant segment of the American government also – especially those who reject the “near-peer” theory in favor of the “rising-competitor” argument.

China’s willingness to deal with regimes regarded unfavorably by the Americans (and its strategic procurement of energy deals with traditional US allies) does not sit well with conservative elements of the US Government. Recently, a Chinese bid to purchase an American energy company (Unocal) faced stiff opposition from the US Congress and resulted in the bid being dropped. This is one of a growing list of examples where conservative American politics have reigned over economic sense.

That the two most populous countries in the world (China and India) are in a dead heat competition to acquire energy assets around the globe is one of the most talked about trends in international affairs. That Nepal is sandwiched between these rising economic powers is inconsequential except in situations that involve the analysis of regional politics.

So what does this imply for political developments in Nepal? It implies intentional ambiguity. The same policy that the US traditionally used regarding Taiwan (vis-à-vis China) appears to have been adopted by China regarding Nepal (vis-à-vis India).

China may not have a fleet of ships patrolling the Indian Ocean, but it certainly has sufficient economic and political deterrents that would cause India to think twice (before making unilateral moves involving Nepal in the future). Nepal could well be to China, what Taiwan was for the US – a symbolic stand.

If the Chinese were to issue a statement that ignored the seven party – Maoist alliance and instead, supported the upcoming municipal polls, the Indian reaction would probably be far from a “cautionary welcome.” Alternatively, if China pushes through weapons to Nepal (as reported last week), Nepal may use the Maoists’ hesitation at extending their unilateral ceasefire as justification for the arms transfer. What then?

By fostering the worst-case scenario for the Nepali monarch, these are some of the risks that Indian policy makers have inherited. With Natwar Singh’s implication in the UN’s oil-for-food scandal and swelling discontent within the opposition (to the ruling Indian government’s conduct of foreign policy), nothing can be discounted.

The Indian decision to force the Maoists to concede to an agreement with the seven-party alliance has the potential for very beneficial outcomes to Nepal. This decision also has fringe benefits extending as far north as Beijing. What the decision truly accomplishes for India (aside from a cheap shot at the King) will likely become clearer in the weeks and months ahead.

(Dipta Shah is a consultant with a US-based global advisory services firm. This is the second in a series of five articles on recent political developments (in Nepal) that Shah contributed to Nepalnews. Please send your comments/suggestions to [email protected])

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