Kathmandu: The streets are heating up. Opposition parties outside the parliament have been paralyzing Kathmandu traffic on the ruse of opposing government’s ban on twenty-year-old public vehicles. Bhaktapur’s NMKP has imposed a virtual traffic ban there. The party has only one member in the parliament. The ML particularly has been drawing UML cadres in the streets and the general consensus is that the Maoists have already jumped into the fray. Expectation is that they await a spark carry the movement by next week. Parliament is paralyzed. Parliamentary opposition concentrates on government’s Lauda affair and the opposition parties there have coalesced to disrupt the sessions. The government party is itself at a crossroad. Whether to support an anticipated no confidence motion by abstaining from vote and risk disciplinary action or toe the Girija line is a major make or break decision.
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These choices are not easy for both the Girija congress and their Deuba rivals. Both are aware of the disadvantages in precipitating a permanent break in the party. Both are equally aware of the costs of inaction as well. The Prime Minister’s advantage from government is reflected in the ultimate capitulation of Dr. Ram Saran Mahat whose “sickness”‘ has apparently been overcome to allow himself the ultimate assumption of the post of the Finance Minister in Girija babu’s cabinet. Minister designate Khum Bahadur Khadka has yet to bend.
It is these indicators that provide adequate glimpse into the contradictions in the congress. The Deuba lobby says that they are intact. Girija babu’s supporters say that they are not. Verification will be possible only in parliament. One speculation is that ample indicators will be provided in the role of the congress parliamentary party when government introduces the Ordinance bill for parliamentary approval. The UML, which has control of the Upper House and opposes these bills, is sure to return them to the Lower House. What the Lower House will do then will determine the role of the Girija opposition in the parliamentary congress.
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This, of course, is if the UML no confidence move is not introduced earlier to the bills, the manner with which parliamentary sessions are being disrupted suggest possibilities otherwise. If the UML motion is introduced, the Deuba lobby will have a different role to play. It is this section that reminds others of the manner with which the absence of certain congressmen in parliament made possible the toppling of Prime Minister Deuba. Reminders are purposively made of the absence of any disciplinary action then. The Girija lobby on the other hand insists that congress Chairman and Prime Minister Girija Koirala is in no mood for leniency. They cite the fact that disciplinary action was taken on rebel congress candidates in the last election. They also insist that Girija babu has secured for himself a decisive mandate at the Pokhara convention in both the party general assembly and the central committee to deter any independent action on part of the Deuba lobby. The Deuba lobby however, openly speculates whether the Prime Minister would risk the handicap of taking action on as many as forty members of parliament and virtually emasculate himself and his party majority.
It is these speculations that will unfold into reality in the coming weeks or else render the winter session of parliament meaningless.
Meanwhile, politics is increasingly being diverted from parliament. Much meaning is being given to His Majesty the King’s China visit. Also former Prime Minister Kirti Nidhi Bista leaves for China next week. Incidentally, former Prime Minister Marich Man Singh-Shrestha was received well at Nepali gatherings in the United States. All things put together these are considered ominous signal indeed.