Kathmandu: Talks could be held by the end of this Nepali month. Talks might not be held in between the rebels and the government.

A sort of military confrontation in between the two warring sides is imminent. The two confronting sides might not opt for a war.

Peace will prevail. Peace remains remote in the given scheme of things in the country.

The facilitators would use their good offices and avert the sort of crisis that appears to have unknowingly crept into the proposed third round of dialogue in between the government and the Maoists.

The facilitators apparently were themselves playing foul and might mar the possibility of the talks.

The government is serious and is not. The Maoist rebels too appear serious for the talks and were not.

These are some of the contradictory views emanating from the Nepal’s academic quarters regarding the government-Maoists talks that is presumably scheduled at the fag end of this Nepali month.

The government is sure that the talks will resume. So say the Maoists. However, the ground reality is that both have stepped up their violent activities on one pretext or the other.

The Maoists’ acts of violence continues unabated. The government security forces too have begun retaliating with full force. Both push their lame excuse: in self-defense. In the process, lay men are being killed and at times the military men or the Maoists rebels.

The fight is on though in a subtle manner.

All put together, the political scenario is that a sort of war could erupt any time should the RNA and the Maoists rebels in the jungles so desire.

Nevertheless, rumors are agog in the capital that says that the Maoists high command either has lost its control over its grassroots cadres or the cadres have themselves decided not to obey the dictates of their own respected high command. The logic behind this justification is that the Maoists high command in principle remains committed not to commit any acts of violence as per the agreed code of ethics. However, the fact is that acts of sporadic violence from the quarters of the rebels remains intact. Does this indicate that there is already a sort of cleavage in the Maoists camp?

The same could be said itself of the Maoists supreme command. Rumors have it that Comrade Prachanda is very much in favor of talks that lead to a permanent peace in the country. This is what he hinted in his last statement which was taken very positively by the majority of the population.

However, things have become up side down.

Only the other day, yet another top-hat of the Maoist insurgency, Dr. Babu Ram Bhattarai has straight away put a precondition that is not only hard enough but possesses the potential of even damaging the prospects of the happening of the third round of talks scheduled mid August.

“Either the King sees us in person and expresses his total committal that whatever is agreed in between the Maoists and his government would be binding on him or else at best the King must reiterate explicitly his word of committal through national media”, this is what said Dr. Bhattarai.

Now the question arises whether the King should meet the Maoists and satisfy their demands or should he empower the government and through the government he makes a sort of avowal that he would implement what has been agreed in between the two contesting parties.

“All that the Maoists wish is a direct communication with the King and the King shouldn’t mind their modest requests”, opines one school of thought.

Yet another thought is that the King can’t meet the rebels for so many technical reasons and that it would be best that the King reiterates his total committal for the condensed version of the conclusions arrived at after the talks in between the two.

The government has its own theory. The Thapa establishment would wish to gain peace their own way. The Maoists would prefer the same their own manner. Here lies the hitch.

And unfortunately, the parties in agitation exhibit their longing to exploit this hitch on their favor.

Understandably, the political parties currently in agitation feel that they have been totally sidelined in the country’s affairs. The fact is that they themselves have opted for that. To recall, the government is reiterating that it would wish the parties to join the talks. The Maoists too have reiterated the same. However, the ground reality is that thew parties remain adamant and say that they would not participate in any parley conducted by the unconstitutional establishment of Thapa.

But then yet one shocking opinion to the parties in agitation has come from one United States academician, Dr. David Scott Palmer who the other day told an academic gathering that the peace parley/negotiations could go smoothly even in the absence of the agitating political parties.

” It would be nice if they participate but would not make any substantial difference even if they prefer to remain out from the talks”, opined Dr. Palmer.

In effect, Dr. Palmer told the gathering that negotiations of such sorts always take place in between the establishment of the day and the rebels and hence there is no need for the inclusion of any third party at the peace talks.

The US scholar’s blunt remarks must have come as a bolt from the blue to the agitating five parties.

All put together again, the stage for the talks is set and the talks will proceed provided the agitating five and their foreign backers push yet another conditions in order to dampen the prospects of peace in this beleaguered Kingdom.

It would be interesting to know as to which force on earth is backing the agitating five that they dare to bring heaven down to earth come September.

Wisdom prevails on all the sides, analysts hope.