Kathmandu:; The Surkhet ambush from which the country’s Chief Justice managed a narrow escape has messages galore. Firstly, it demonstrates Maoists reach. Secondly, it is as yet the most outstanding example of Maoist information and attacking capabilities. Thirdly, although the Maoists are said to have denied the judicial target, the fact is that much of the Nepali countryside now affected by the Maoists movement is said to have been enthused with Maoists dictats on the judicial system. The fact is that parallel governments are in place and the slow arm of Nepali justice has been attracting the Maoists options. The fact is that, where the Maoists are present, even the civil and judicial offices of HMG/N are said to be under Maoists dictats. Clearly, whether or not intentional, the message of the attack is not altogether hidden from the public’s point of view, particularly, from Surkhet.
Emerging Maoists capabilities apart, emerging government response also becomes highly significant. Firstly, the institution of the Armed Police Force gives a message that is clearly confrontational. Secondly, the new provision for regional “commissioners” make out that administrative strategies appear underway. Thirdly, the virtual absence of a political solution from points of view of government makes certain the understanding in government the lack of political solution. As a result and the public are very much aware of it, the country faces a virtual civil war. How the government is to capacitate itself financially to conduct an anti insurgency campaign given the Nepali terrain and the negative economic performance of the past years is now anybody’s guess.
Adding to the confusion along with such government response is the virtual absence of any directional systemic response. Infighting in the ruling party prompts opponents of the Prime Minister to reject his attemmpts at expanding his cabinet reach. A united congress is certainly not the Nepalese reality. And then there is the role of the opposition outside the congress. The UML continues to court congress reaction by introducing yet another ‘no confidence motion’. It is certain that they lack the required numbers on their own. Moreover, Lauda or no Lauda the general sentiment is that it is neither the UML nor the congress that is determining their place in government. Extra national forces now have the major say in determining the roles of major Nepali actors in Nepali politics. In essence, thus, the winter session is likely to be rowdy as promised by the UML. But the public is wary on whether it will affect the much-needed change demanded by the public.
Yet another aspect that adds a curious tinge in the pace of Nepali politics is growing donor disenchantment on Nepali performance. It is, if nothing, amusing to watch none less than American Ambassador Ralph Frank ventilating his disappointment on the matter in front of the Prime Minister G.P.Koirala following which he entertains none less than King Birendra and consort. That Royalty should be so feted and government derided makes for some thinking indeed.