Kathmandu: Both Prime Minister Deuba and UML chief Madhav Kumar Nepal promise that the much-postponed cabinet will materialize this week. Indeed, the Congress-Democratic, the UML, the RPP and even the Sadbhawana have all gone through the formalities of formulating their individual “common minimum program”, CMP, for which they account to the delay. Nepal, moreover, charges Deuba for contributing to the delay. There are also hints that much behind the scene activities have taken place to ensure that the programs don’t clash and that there will be agreement for the commonalities in the individual programs to allow the parties to participate in government.

But this is not enough. The issue of forming government has longstanding practicalities that have impeded the King’s desire for a national government for over twenty months now. Indeed, it has been the pursuit of crass political power and the very matter of political survival that has prevented constitutional forces to come together to take up the challenge of a united approach to the threat posed to the constitution by the Maoist insurgency. Whatever the public posture the rhetoric of unity in the formation of government has been threatened at the very outset by “realpolitiks”.

Deuba himself is shaken by demands from party seniors for cabinet berths that must be sacrificed to competitors. It is after all these seniors that provided the organization clout for Deuba to demonstrate separately with demands for reinstatement after he was sacked by the King for attempting to prolong his tenure on the rues that he was unable to hold the elections. Having ensured that too “clean” party members Prakash Man Singh and Bimlendra Nidhi come aboard his cabinet, Deuba must face pressures for more party representation from within his own party.

The issue of common minimum program and the programs themselves remain a stumble block in Deuba-UML talks regardless of the public posture to the contrary. Key organizational questions such as the resuscitation, of the local elected posts, the matter of constituent assembly and the likes have shown glaring schisms that may only temporarily be papered over for the sake of the matter is that, just as Deuba has critical internal party compulsions, Madhav Nepal has even more glaring ones.

UML leadership competition to Madhav Nepal from stalwarts K.P.Woli and Bam Dev Gautam are well-recognized compulsions that will shape the fate of this national government. Nepal has ensured that this section must be edged out from the advantage of an electoral government. It is not for nothing that Bam Dev Gautam comes public for the demand for experienced ministerial appointees, it is not or nothing that Woli demands a representational cabinet. In this light the delay in cabinet formation is understandable as is the expectation of doom.

Already the fractious RPP sees divisional strains. Deuba apparently must now see to it that participation from the RPP contains both the P. Rana and S.B. Thapa factions. Evidently, unity in, the RPP is to depend on this but Deuba is aware of Thapa’s eleven month long alliance with competitor Girija Koirala that put Thapa in power to the disadvantage of Deuba. There is then the Sadbhawana sections to be represented one of which remains in the agitation led by competitor Koirala. The congress nexus is yet another factor in the woes of government.

Girija Koirala takes his political ride to Delhi avowing a rejuvenation of his India contacts. While denying the possibility that his medical trip will lead to underground talks with the Maoists, his public statement that underground talks with the Maoists, his public statement that his agitation will also keep an eye on resolving the Maoist problems will mean much to Deuba. Already a section of his party leaders chose to threaten Deuba with a slide back to Koirala if they are ignored in the cabinet. That the Maoists can play with the Koirala pole to seek advantage at talks with Deuba is very much a threat to the success of the Deuba government prior to its making itself.

It thus remains to be seen really whether the cabinet will have materialized this week if it has not by time of this publication one dead-line will have passed. If it does not by Friday the week will have exhausted and both Deuba and Madhav Nepal will have been proved wrong. Of course, postponements will then be accounted to remaining formalities but us watchers will have been given grounds for that added dose of skepticism that invariably speaks of doom for the Deuba cabinet prior to its making.