By C. Raja Mohan
C. Raja Mohan (File Photo)
C. Raja Mohan (File Photo)
By serenading the Nepalese Maoist leader Baburam Bhattarai in New Delhi a few days ago, sections of the government have presented (Indian) Prime Minister Manmohan Singh with his first major foreign policy embarrassment.
At a time when Manmohan Singh has done the impossible by simultaneously improving relations with the US, China and Pakistan, the wild policy swings on Nepal remain inexplicable and could turn out to be costly.
Delhi’s flip-flops on Nepal have cast a shadow over India’s standing as a major power, its positions on the global war on terrorism, the unity of the international coalition in favour of restoration of democracy in Nepal Kingdom, and exposed the profound differences within the government on Nepal.
Great powers are expected to bear the consequences of an announced policy and stay the course—right or wrong.
But within a fortnight, India has allowed itself to be seen as playing all sides in the internal struggle in Nepal. The flip was revealed at Jakarta in the first half of this month, when India unexpectedly announced a reversal of policy on denying arms supplies to the Royal Nepal Army.
It is widely assumed that pressure from the Army, the Defence Ministry and the Indian feudal friends of the Nepalese royalty engineered the change. Within days, the security agencies and opposition from the Left have provided the flop by appearing to play footsy with the Maoists.
The official Indian policy remains one of promoting greater cooperation between King Gyanendra and the political parties to offer a credible fight against the Maoists. In Jakarta, the fine balance in the Indian policy between King Gyanendra and the political parties was seen as tilting towards the former.
By hosting Bhattarai a few days later, India has made itself vulnerable to the accusation that it was trying to bring the political parties and the Maoists together against the Monarchy. India is now seen as playing all sides with no real core to its Nepal policy.
Engagement of the Maoists has always been an option for India. But it was kept in abeyance in search of an appropriate timing and a significant change in Maoist policies.
Nor is it clear that India has done any favour to Bhattarai, who is believed to be fighting an ideological argument within the Maoist movement in favour of a democratic movement rather than continuing the armed struggle.
Thanks to the dalliance with the Maoists, India, which has never hesitated to point out the double standards of other nations in the global war against terrorism, now stands liable to the same charge.
In normal circumstances, the Government of India would be expected to arrest Bhattarai, against whom there is an Interpol red corner notice. Remember the Indian railing against Pakistan on Dawood Ibrahim.
The Indian policy vacillations come at a time when the major Nepalese political parties have got their act together and have begun to mobilise against King Gyanendra. They hope to follow up on their impressive demonstrations all across Nepal over the weekend with even bigger ones on Friday.
But mixed signals from India have given enough ammunition to the royalists in Nepal to order counter-demonstrations on the same day against “Indian interference in the internal affairs of Nepal”.
The lack of consistency in New Delhi’s Nepal policy threatens to weaken the international coalition.
For the first time in the recent history of the subcontinent, the US, UK and the European Union have backed India’s leadership in resolving a major regional crisis.
As the coalition begins to develop doubts about the credibility of Indian policy, it is only natural that King Gyanendra would want to exploit the cleavages between India and her international partners.