All eyes on HM’s India visit

November 10, 2004
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Kathmandu: A month long festival reprieve sees political jostling likely to achieve fruition after the Tihar season ends this week.

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Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba’s faltering coalition will most likely be challenged soon from his UML partners who are taking an increasingly belligerent position on the need for government to demonstrate initiatives for talks prior to elections. This is in contrast to the standard Deuba position that he will go for the elections if the Maoists do not convincingly come forth for talks.

Sensing imminent political vacuum, Surya Bahadur Thapa emerged from a pre-Dashain audience with the King with a flurry of talks with the Nepali Congress and other parties after which his propaganda machine worked fulltime to declare that he was on the verge of forming a national government with even the Nepali Congress and the UML contributing. So far, however, his attempts to make his strategy convincing by distancing himself from the RPP has resulted merely in his RPP coterie supporting his call for a national democratic convention with resignations from the RPP.

Much is expected after the King’s much postponed visit that seems to be much anticipated in New Delhi that adds to the expectations.

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What is for sure is that the cabinet is troubled. This is largely on account of the nonchalance of the Maoists and the shaky nature of the coalition with the UML, which must be more determined for elections if it is to prolong its existence in government.

Deuba’s firm strategy regarding the Maoists appears to have paid, however, it was the Maoists and not the government that come forth with an undeclared ceasefire this Dashain. This, despite the intense lobbying for an initiative by government. Government in fact gestured with a corresponding assurance that it would hold fire if the Maoists refrain held. Again, the security forces were ready to respond immediately after the Maoists went on the offensive as Deuba predicted. As of the moment, it does appear that the Deuba strategy has paid. Typically, the opposition clamor refuses to recognize this pressing the government still for a gesture on government’s behalf. Strangely, the UML continues to play both ways.

The coming days thus are likely to test Deuba’s adamant position that he will conduct elections if the Maoists are not so make convincing gestures that they are for lasting peace. Perhaps His Majesty’s New Delhi visit will break ice.