Thapa will resign; Thapa will not resign!

November 26, 2003
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Kathmandu: The UML leader Madhav Kumar Nepal is in action.

President Koirala must act accordingly. So should do the men handling the troubled RPP now.

Sacked Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba could in no way be an exception to the rule and thus his activities suggest that he too is in the race much the same way as his colleagues in other parties are.

The smaller parties now housed in the five party coalitions have been forced to watch the politics initiated suddenly by their partners in the agitation. Frustrated as they are, the leaders of the smaller parties, however, were no fools. They understand that the bigger parties were in a race to catch bigger fish should the emerging politics allow.

Prime Minister Thapa too is not unaware of the conspiratorial politics initiated by his colleagues inside his own party or for that matter by those who aspire now the prime ministerial post by unseating him.

The donor community too has hinted that Thapa’s government was not a “representative one” and thus they surely wish the formation of an all-party government which later takes initiatives for the stalled talks with the Maoists and conducts elections.

Prime Minister Thapa, a known conspiratorial brain of the highest order, must be active to counter the sudden spurt of activities that have been initiated of late all aimed at unseating him from his current post.

That he is more than active comparatively speaking becomes clear from this news which reads in part: “Prime Minister Thapa and Indian Prime Minister Bajpayee met privately for ten minutes”.

This news coming as it does from Delhi is bound to have its political impact in Kathmandu for obvious political reasons. President Koirala and General Secretary Madhav Nepal better understand as to what it means when Nepal’s Prime Minister meets his Indian counterpart and that too for ten exclusive minutes without any assistants.

The King is thus visibly pressed. He must act now. Failing to act at this opportune moment will instead of easing the issues confronting the nation will compound to the extent that he might not be able to bring things under control.

Does this all hint that Nepal awaits for a major political change for the better? Interpretations may vary but what is for sure is that the country is poised for a change and the change must bring positive results.

President Koirala needs a change. In seeking a change to the current status quo, all that he now needs the restoration of the dissolved parliament and if that is so he wouldn’t mind even his arch rival Deuba is elevated to the ranks of the country’s prime minister. Definitely this is a change in Koirala’s perception of the things vis-à-vis Deuba.

There is yet another change in Koirala of late. He now wishes to see Comrade Prachanda “officially” some time later. This change in him is apparently the result of the fact that Madhav Nepal, who now apparently differs with him on so many counts, accomplished what in essence he should have done. Koirala upon listening that Madhav Nepal already met with Prachanda and could have struck some political deals favoring the UML, is all tempted to see the leader in exile so that he too could extract from the Maoists supremo for his party’s favor. However, Koirala’s men appear not that enthusiastic in their leaders’ wish to have a chit-chat with Maoist leader for some in the congress say that “to strike a deal with the Maoists in favor of the ongoing agitation would tantamount to committing a suicide for the congress”.

It is however, not yet clear whether Koirala is meeting Prachanda to win his hearts in favor of the agitation or seducing the leader in exile for the restoration of peace? Could be both. Could be not.

This notwithstanding, the fact is that both Koirala and Madhav Nepal have been meeting Comrade Prachanda on a regular basis. Madhav Nepal officially met Prachanda twice. Koirala met once through the king courtesy of George Fernandes. Koirala’s aide de camph, Chakra Bastola, is talked to be in regular contact with Prachanda and his colleagues. Hopefully, other leaders too have their own channels and could have been meeting the Maoist leader in private from time to time. However, their meetings do not hit the media headlines for obvious reasons.

Needless to say, the venue each and every time is thus Indian territory which stretches from Siliguri, Delhi and now to Lucknow.Kathmandu will begin, hopefully, boiling politically speaking, the moment Prime Minister Thapa lands here. He is sure to be greeted negatively by his detractors in his own party and the political enemies from other contending forces. For example, Madhav Nepal has his own schemes to unseat Thapa. Koirala, for the time being is in his favor hoping that Thapa upon his return will save his dwindling prestige by appealing the King for the restoration of the parliament. Deuba too is hoping that should the King restore the parliament and should Madhav Nepal support his candidature, he is once again the Prime Minister. Madhav Nepal, reportedly, enjoys the support of Deuba and a sizeable chunk of the agitating RPP stalwarts.

Undoubtedly, RPP chairman Mr. Rana, too is a contender to the Premier post should the King instead of selecting Madhav and Deuba preferred him. Some quarters find meaning in Mr. Rana’s sudden seeking resignation from Prime Minister Thapa. Others say, resignation and Thapa never go together.

The open million-dollar question is: Will Thapa resign under pressure? Will he be sacked by the King upon his return from SAARC trip? What if Thapa goes against King’s sacking him unceremoniously citing that he is a prime minister who enjoyed executive powers? Will that exclusive “ten minutes” in Delhi be able to shield Thapa from the barrage of political onslaughts that eagerly awaits him in Kathmandu? These are some pertinent questions that will apparently rock the country for a while if the change we are talking is round the corner.