Kathmandu: For good or bad, the agitation sponsored by the five agitating parties is continuing and appears that it would continue ad infinitum.

Of the all comprising the five major parliamentary parties, the hardest hit is the UML. More candidly speaking, it is the UML leader Madhav Nepal who had been the consensus candidate of the agitating parties for the post of the prime minister. But he was denied for reasons best known to the Palace only.

However, informed sources say that Madhav Nepal too was a preferred candidate for the Palace but could not elevate his ranks to the post of the prime minister for the following reasons.

The first, analysts say, could be that the Palace concluded that if Madhav is allowed to function as the prime minister, he will certainly push his common agenda of reviving the dead parliament which would have been a bitter pill for the Palace for the latter considered it not fit to go against the verdict of the nation’s apex court. The court had upheld, to recall, the Deuba’s dissolution of the last parliament. If the King would have complied to Madhav’s agenda, it would have set a very bad precedent. This would have again meant that an active monarchy were in the offing. Perhaps keeping all these considerations, the Palace preferred S.B.Thapa instead of Madhav Nepal.

Second reason could be that neighboring India had in her mind that Thapa could be the better candidate in Nepal as prime minister who could take proper care of her never ending “political interests” which appears to have prompted India to manuever Nepali politics around the time of the making of the prime minister in Nepal.

Third reason, analysts say, could be that the Western democracies too preferred Thapa over Madhav Nepal for understandable reasons. Its corollary would be that the West choose a “liberal” democrat though of the Panchayat era in place of a fire brand communist apparently fearing that the elevation of Mr. Nepal might make the entire country all RED. The West presumably prefers the growth of the democrats in lieu of the communists. They could have also concluded that the elevation of Mr. Nepal to the ranks of the Premier of the country might time permitting allow the Maoists to forge an alliance with the UML and voice for the installation of republicanism in the country. The Indian establishment too appears to have been guided by this theory which if true would mean that both India and the Western democracies would very much wish to see Nepal going all and all democratic with no signs of RED.

Fourth reason could be that the Palace got the hint that even if Madhav Nepal is chosen as the prime minister, he would not severe his relations with the rest of the political parties now in opposition. This meant that the Palace concluded that it is better not to invite Madhav Nepal who can’t shield the interets of the Royal Palace that is the King.

Be that as it may, Thapa is the prime minister. His first round of talks with the agitating-5 has miserably failed. He has been unable to seduce them to enter into his cabinet. In these circumstances, what he would do then? How he would steer the nation? Is a common question that is being asked every where and is a valid question indeed.

Those who understand Thapa better say that his conspiratorial brain will not allow the agitation to go on indefinitely. But how he would bring about a rift in between the agitating parties will have to be carefully watched. This he can do provided he prefers to go on that line. But the fact is that he has vowed not to toe the ugly line.

However, there remains one possibility which can save Thapa’s face. He will, under frustration, convince the King to declare the general elections which if announced will surely distract the attention of the agitating parties from agitation and will presumably concentrate their attention towards the elections. A sort of hint has come from President Koirala. Koirala reportedly told Thapa to try either the restoration of the house or manage to declare the elections.

But how the Maoists would react to the announcement of the elections prior to the conclusion of the talks with them? This is a big question indeed.

Whether the Maoists like it or not, the elections could bring back to the rails the already derailed democratic system and the constitution. And this is what the international community too wishes.

But the Maoists remain adamant and been demanding the rewriting of an altogether new constitution that takes care of their demands. Convening of elections under this constitution is what they reject.

How the politics proceeds will have to be watched. How the government convinces the Maoists will also have to be watched.

By all means, the country’s politics appears to be more than interesting in the impending days.