Kathmandu: The stalemate continues.

The political parties appear yet energetic in sustaining their ongoing agitation aimed mainly against the monarchy and in all likelihood remain in the battlefield until the King yields to their demands. In the process, the parliamentary parties have already entered into their sixth phase of agitation which they claim was to control the “regression” initiated by the constitutional monarch with the dismissal of the then Sher Bahadur Deuba’s elected government on October 4 last year.

The monarch is watching the events but yet appears reluctant in exhibiting his sagacity and graciousness towards the agaitation waged by the political parties.

On the other, Girija Prasad Koirala, the supposed commander of the movement, despite his falling health and age is determined to what he says “bring the monarchy to its real and the stipulated role”. He says to the press that his anger is not towards the monarchy as an institution but is aimed against the monarch who, according to Koirala, has exceeded his clearly defined and stipulated limits. But the fact is that Koirala’s recent political overtones appear becoming more and more personal against the King. How the King is taking his vitriolic statements is not known to any one because the Kings in Nepal have a tradition of controlling their feelings, however bitter it might be, to the hilt.

Madhav Nepal, the supposed second man leading the agitation, has reasons to be annoyed with the King who denied him the prime ministerial post despite the fact that the agitating parties pushed his name as their “consensus” candidate for the said post.

Though Mr. Nepal expressed his deep anger against the King in the immediate days when he was denied the post, but these days not very surprisingly he has been ventilating his anger not towards the monarch but against the Prime Minister who replaced him. It is the incumbent Prime Minister Thapa on whom Mr. Nepal is pouring in his internal outbursts. Mr. Nepal’s anxiety has grown to the extent that he has already predicted that Thapa’s tenure in government is matter of days not even weeks.

Madhav’s prediction comes at a time when Prime Minister Thapa has failed in all fronts after his assuming the post of the chief of the executive. Thapa while has miserably failed in bagging the support of the agitating parties, he has also been unable to bring the rebels to the talks. Unconfirmed reports in the form of rumors say that the King had allowed two months time to Mr. Thapa to arrest the deteriorating trends in the country and the time frame provided him by the monarch is about to come to an end or has even exceeded. This means that Thapa is left with only two options.

Either to declare the elections or quit the post.

That Thapa could prefer the first option becomes evident from the fact that the budget just presented by Dr. Lohani has allocated amounts for the general elections. The budget even has allocated Rs.20 each vote to the political parties and the parties will be paid the money according to the votes they received during the last general elections. However, the ground reality is that the Maoists fear persists in the villages which does not allow the politicians to even visit their own constituencies. In the existing scheme of things, politicians’ say holding of the elections were simply unthinkable.

“Had there been good rapport in between the government and the rebels, the idea of going to the elections could be thought of”, said a leader of the NC. According to him, given the widening rift in between the State and the rebels and the resumption of the talks remaining yet uncertain, going to the elections would be simply a dangerous bet.

The fact is that unless the talks with the Maoists get settled and that too takes a positive landing, holding of the elections is simply impossible.

But, question analysts, what is the basis for the government’s allocating the budget for the election purposes? Should this mean that the government is confident that the Maoists will come to the table soon and both will arrive at a happy conclusion? Does this mean that the Maoists too hinted the State that they wouldn’t mind if the former allocated budget for the elections?

Then yet another question arises: Will the mainstream political parties accept the government’s decision to go in for elections even if the talks were continuing?

Be that as it may, the second option is Thapa’s quitting the chair advancing his failure. Is it that Madhav Nepal’s outbursts against Thapa is guided by the idea that if Thapa is gone, he is the next Prime Minister? Is it that the King himself assured Mr. Nepal that if by chance Thapa quits or is forced to quit, he would be his next choice? Is this possible?

Perhaps yes!

Let’s wait and see how Thapa moves. Nevertheless, what is for sure is that if he could bring the rebels to the talk, his tenure in government is ensured. If he fails, not only the political parties but the king also could advise him to tender his resignation.

But how Thapa will react if he is forced to resign will have to be watched.

This means that if Madhav is the Prime Minister, the agitation will lose its steam instantly. If not, then the agitation will take a new height as Madhav has declared recently.