Will Deuba regime collapse if UML supports Koirala?

November 21, 2001
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Kathmandu: Nepali Congress party president Girija Prasad Koirala appears to have vowed to oust his nearest political rival-Sher Bahadur Deuba.

His fresh utterances made in his home town Biratnagar amply hint that he will spare no efforts unturned for bringing about a premature collapse of Deuba government.

If one carefully analyses the statements emanating of late from UML quarters and the Girija faction of the congress, one would naturally find striking similarities in between the statements made by two separate political parties. What is common in both is that both possess satirical remarks about the incumbent Prime Minister. While President Koirala is passing on his negative comments, at times implied as well, onto the Prime Minister’s awarding extra concessions to what he prefers yet to call the “terrorists”, the UML camp summarily describes Deuba tenure in government as a total “failure”.

The UML says so because it is one of the hardest hit party by the continuing violent activities of the Maoists despite the fact that there had been, we were told, a tacit understanding in between the UML and the Maoists that they will remain friendly to each other till a solution to the Maoists imbroglio is arrived at. However, the UML allegation is that the Maoists cadres have unilaterally broken the “peace-accord” and have in the process attacked several of the UML cadres in the districts.

The sum total is that the UML at this juncture is totally annoyed with the Maoists overtures and with government’s inability in containing the ongoing threats of the insurgents more so on its party cadres.

Koirala’s anger with the government is threefold. Firstly, Koirala feels that it was time already for Deuba’s ouster. When he feels and arrives at a firm conclusion that becomes final or at least should be considered by his party men as final and binding too.

Secondly, Koirala considers that should Deuba bag success, his fate in Nepal’s politics would come to a grinding halt and hence he should keep on talking things that harass Deuba or at best spoil the entire process of the dialogue that the latter is continuing.

Thirdly, in Koirala’s opinion, the Maoists should be treated at par with the terrorists and hence no need for lingering the talks. This implies that Koirala wishes for the abrupt failure of the talks which in effect would discredit Deuba to the extent that he would, read Deuba, voluntarily resign from the chair. This sudden event will facilitate Girija to bounce back to power, which is what he wishes from the very core of his heart.

Now looking at UML leader Madhav Nepal’s political utterances, which were all against Sher Bahadur Deuba, one could fairly conclude that should party president Girija babu seek the former’s tacit support in bringing about a sudden collapse of Deuba set up, he could do so and Madhav Nepal will be more than willing to extend his political help. Whether or not Madhav is supporting Koirala will become amply clear at time of the beginning of the winter session of the parliament.

There is one more factor that brings Koirala closer with Madhav Nepal. The fact is that both the political creatures are dead against the elections to the constituent assembly as demanded by the Maoists insurgents. If Deuba exhibited his bend for Maoists’ fresh demand, it would be this bend which will cause Deuba government to collapse. Telegraph adds: The UML central Committee Tuesday afternoon said that the Government-Maoists talks must not be lengthened. The fresh UML statement indeed fully matches with what president Koirala is airing these days. Could be a mere coincidence!

However, Deuba is not a fool. He should have already calculated measures on how to counter those Koirala-Madhav overtures.

At best what Deuba could do is to give continuation to the talks with the Maoists in order to shield himself from the wrath of both the national population and his political enemies within and without his party.

This means that the present day tensed atmosphere will continue for long in the country.

However, what course the national politics will take will be best decided by the winter session of the parliament. It is for sure that president Koirala enjoys the support of 72 NC lawmakers. This means that Koirala could engineer any move to discredit Deuba should he preferred to do so.