The Countdown

April 19, 2006
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By Dr. Alok K. Bohara

Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s special envoy Karan Singh’s message, as some vernaculars put it, “restore democracy or risk losing power” could not have come at a better time. Nothing is guaranteed in politics, but based on everything we know about the major actors involved, a resolution leading to an election to constituent assembly (CA) seems inevitable. With the whole world watching and the people awaken, the King Gyanendra has no option left.

In politics, timing is everything and the King had his moment a week ago. Now, the future course of Nepal, including that of the King’s, belongs to the people. It is time to think carefully about the constituent assembly (CA). This author believes that the election for CA needs to exclusively deal with the issues of restructuring of the state. Unless we separate the issue of monarchy from the rest of the state related agenda such as federal structure, proportional representation system, social justice, and the economic power sharing between the regions and the center, the election for the CA cannot be transparent and agenda oriented. The political parties and the Maoists need to present to the people their vision for new Nepal.

King Gyanendra’s cold and uncaring New Year message last week had just stunned everyone. The ambiguous and empty call for a dialogue without any clarity and focus was rejected immediately by the Seven Party Alliance (SPA), and the response of the agitating masses was equally forceful in size, intensity, and coverage. The long-standing demand for a constituent assembly (CA) is a forgone conclusion, and a creation of a new liberal democratic Nepal is simply inevitable. This author proposes a two-step approach to hold such elections: 1) referendum for monarchy and 2) CA election.

There are two possible mechanisms: 1) house revival, formation of an interim government, and an election for constituent assembly or 2) formation of an interim government and a direct election for constituent assembly.

Under both scenarios, the constituent assembly becomes a common denominator. To make it fair and free, the UN could be invited to conduct this election.

First, a direct national election is to be held to decide the question of monarchy. This gives everyone a chance to assess and evaluate the importance of monarchy within a context of a single issue. This direct election can also be used to decide the issue of the country’s religious status. The assertion that the institution of monarchy is somehow venerable must be put to test, and the timing could not have been more perfect.

Then in the second round of the election for constituent assembly, the voters can focus on arties and candidates. With the issue of monarchy settled one way or the other, the voters will have a better idea about the parties’ and the Maoists’ standing on important issues such as, regional federal structure, mixed proportional representation electoral system, and social justice.

If we were to hold just one election, the issue of monarchy will overshadow the entire election process for CA, and the people will have missed an opportunity to debate important agenda.

The special envoy of the Indian Prime Minister has his work cut out for him, and the trip has come at a time when King Gyanendra himself does not have too many moves left. It may well be too little too late. At the same time, a giant democracy like India, on its way to becoming a respectable super power and perhaps with a dream to be a permanent member of the Security Council of the UN, would not want to sit back ideally, and allow a friendly neighbor to disintegrate in chaos. With an unknown entity like the Maoists lurking behind the scene, the risk was too great for a country like India to risk a potential collapse of a neighbor.

Similarly, it becomes the duty of everyone involved in this movement to avoid bloodshed and killings. Rejecting extremism, violence, and deaths should be everyone’s business, and this peaceful movement has been exemplary in that regard. Against this backdrop, this mission of the Indian Prime Minister Singh should be welcomed by all of us. Finding a political solution is a noble cause, and there is nothing shameful about it. War weary Nepalis need a break. Without any prejudgment, we should let the Indian Prime Minister’s mission take its course with a hope that the proposed solution, to be agreed upon by the SPA, is fair, transparent, and rewarding to the liberal democrats. King’s autocracy must end once and for all.

(Dr. Bohara is a professor of Economics at the University of New Mexico, USA. Please send your comments to [email protected] or [email protected] )

(Editor’s Note: Nepalis, wherever they live, as well as friends of Nepal around the globe are requested to contribute their views/opinions/recollections etc. on issues concerning present day Nepal to the Guest Column of Nepalnews. Length of the article should not be more than 1,000 words and may be edited for the purpose of clarity and space. Relevant photos as well as photo of the author may also be sent along with the article. Please send your write-ups to [email protected])