By Bhagirath Yogi As reports of unprecedented death and destruction continue to pour in from nine countries affected by the devastating undersea earthquake that hit off the Sumatra coast in Indonesia early Sunday, experts and scientists says landlocked Nepal must learn lessons from the latest natural disaster.
“It’s a wake-up call for Nepal.”
Amod Mani Dixit, NSET
“It’s a wake-up call for us,” Amod Mani Dixit, general secretary of the National Society for Earthquake Technology (NSET), a non-governmental organisation promoting awareness and innovating technologies to reduce harm from the earthquake, told Nepalnews Monday.
According to scientists, Nepal lies in the high seismic zone. Four major quakes have already hit the Himalayan region over the last 107 years (see: map) and scientists say a major quake is most likely anytime in the Himalayas.
“Nations in the Himalayan region are at risk of a massive earthquake that could devastate large urban areas in Nepal, India, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Bhutan,” said a study published three years ago (in August 2001) in the renowned American scientific journal, Science.
Authors of the study, geologist Roger Bilham and Peter Molnar of the University of Colorado, and Vinod K. Gaur of the Indian Institute of Astrophysics at Bangalore, warned that at least one earthquake of 8.1 to 8.3 Richter scale in magnitude is `overdue’ along the 2010-km seismically active front of the Himalaya mountains. Such an earthquake could affect up to 50 million people in the densely populated region, the scientists said.
Unfortunately, despite latest technological innovations , scientists can’t predict exactly when and where the quake would hit. “We can not precisely predict when a massive earthquake would occur, but that it could be ‘very soon’ in geologic terms. This means it could occur anytime between now and the next 50 years,” the authors of the study said.
In 1905, an earthquake struck Kangra, a northern Indian town, and caused about 19,000 deaths. If a similar earthquake hit the same town now, the death toll could be 200,000 or more because of the increase in population, say experts.
The massive earthquake (measured 8.4 on the Richter scale) that hit in 1934 (popularly known as `Nabbe Saalko Bhuichalo’) cost lives of over 8,500 people in the Kathmandu valley alone and destroyed over 200,000 structures. The quake even caused destructions in West Bengal and Bihar states of India.
According to a recent study conducted by NSET, if an earthquake of the magnitude of 1934 were to occur again, up to 30,000 people could die and up to 80,000 people could be seriously injured in the Kathmandu valley alone.
Up to 60 percent of the houses in the valley could be destroyed and all kinds of public services including medical, drinking water, transportation, communications and electricity would be badly affected.
“Even our only international airport could be ruptured thereby posing difficulties in getting international relief and other types of assistance,” said Ramesh Kumar Aryal, chief of the National Earthquake Measurement Centre at the Department of Mines and Geology.
Experts say quakes don’t kill people unsafe buildings do. “There is a need to enforce the building code strictly to reduce huge losses of lives and property that could take place in the aftermath of a big earthquake,” says Dixit.
Four years after the 6.5 Richter scale earthquake that hit Nepal (with its epicenter in the eastern hilly district of Udaypur that caused over 700 deaths and destruction of property over Rs five billion), National Building Code Development Project was launched. But it was only after 12 years (in early 2004) that the government finally adopted the code.
Municipal officials, however, admit that the code – that adheres to international norms — is very strict and that it would be very difficult to implement it in accordance with its letter and spirit.
“The building code has set a number of criteria. In the first phase, we are going to implement it (within the next fortnight) for the big government and commercial buildings. The residential buildings would be brought under the purview of the code only in the second phase,” said Devendra Dangol, chief of the Urban Development Department of the Kathmandu Metropolitan city.
According to an estimate, up to 10,000 houses are built in the Kathmandu valley every year but majority of them are not safe from disasters like earthquake. “By enforcing the building could, we could save at least 60,000 lives every year,” said Dixit.
Officials, on their part, insist that the government is aware of the associated risks and that a mechanism is in place to deal with the natural disaster. “We have got Natural Disaster Rescue Committees under the chairmanship of Chief District Officers in all 75 districts, regional level committees under the chairmanship of regional administrators in all five development regions and a committee headed by the Home Minister at the central level,” said Durga Raj Sharma, under secretary at the Natural Disaster Management division of the Home Ministry.
“We also work in close coordination with NGOs like Nepal Red Cross Society and are in a position to mobilise security forces at a short notice as per the need,” he added.
But the question is: is Nepal in a position to launch and coordinate rescue and rehabilitation programmes at the massive level if, unfortunately, an earthquake of say over 8 Richter scale hit any part of the country.
“Western region of Nepal is more earthquake prone and we need to make special arrangements to mobilise rescue team and resources in time,” said Ramesh Kumar Aryal of the National Earthquake Measurement Centre. In fact, a number of districts in western Nepal are yet to be touched by the road network and it is also the region, which is most affected from the on-going Maoist insurgency.
Reports say after the devastating earthquake and tidal waves of Dec. 26, Indonesian authorities have been facing difficulties in launching rescue programmes in insurgency-hit Aceh province while international aid agencies are said to be coordinating with the Tamil Tiger guerrillas of Sri Lanka to launch relief works in the region under their control.
It may seem to many a far-fetched scenario, but the ground reality is that the government would require to urge the rebels to allow rescue and rehabilitation works in the areas affected from natural disaster. Nobody knows if the rebels would respond in positive. A few months back, the rebels ambushed a vehicle carrying security personnel from Butwal that was on its way to rescue passengers who had met with an accident in western Nepal.
Experts say mobilizing community is the first and most reliable tool to launch the rescue and rehabilitation works in the situation of disaster. And, the communities can be best mobilized only when there are popularly elected local leaders. But Nepal is without popularly elected local bodies and a legislature for more than the last two years.
In such a scenario, can we afford talk about a credible disaster management plan?
Of course, we should, say experts. “Disaster risk management is best done if we integrate it into the on-going programme for development. It should not be taken as a stand-alone initiative,” insists Amod Mani Dixit.
According to Dixit, there is a need to educate general public without creating a panic. “Nepal should exhibit its solidarity with the people who are suffering from Tsunami waves and the government can learn lessons at no cost from this latest disaster,” said Dixit. “We should also assess our capacity and study how rescue and rehabilitation works would be implemented in our neighbourhood,” he added.
Of course, Nepal must learn lessons before it is too late. And, the initiative must come from the civil society—including all of us. nepalnews.com Dec 28 04