Kathmandu: The Maoist rebels have of late acquired a two-pronged strategy, it is presumed.
While they have kept their option for talks open, equally true is that they have been continuing their violent activities that include mass abduction of innocent civilians as well.
The first option is attached with some conditions. The rebels have made it clear that they were ready for talks provided the United nations mediated their affair with the government. The government in the beginning of the Maoists proposal for the UN dismissed the idea forwarding certain geographical reasons. However, the government when pressed by intellectuals and the likes, both within and without, slightly revised its former rejection. Still, the government has yet to formally accept the idea of the UN mediation as pushed by the other camp.
Whether the government goes in for the UN mediation or not is not clear. However, what is clear is that the Maoists have bagged success in dividing the Nepali population into two halves: the first favoring UN as mediator, and the other summarily rejecting the idea forwarding UN’s past failures in scores of cases in the past.
Be that as it may, the Bhojpur and Myagdi attacks sponsored by the Maoists did provide a befitting reply to the government when it calculated that the rebels were a weakened force. However, that was not which they proved in Bhojpur and Myagdi. What is also equally true is that the Maoists too have apparently calculated that they can’s exterminate the RNA and hence the war could not be brought in their favor. This means that the Maoists own conclusion could have been that talks could provide them with a face-saving formulae and hence they could have pushed the idea of the UN mediation.
That the Maoists were ready for talks got reflected from the modest manner the insurgency released scores of abducted prisoners of war under the aegis of the International reed Cross Committee hinting that they were not a savage lot but had the knowledge on how to treat POWs at times of war under the stipulations of the Geneva Convention. This did hint that they not only abided by the rules of the game but were equally serious to the concerns of the vast population which was for the restoration of peace.
On the other side, the Maoists concurrently ventilated that while the talks for the talks could go on, they were no less concerned about on how to increase their internal strength in order to fight with the main army. In the process, some killings, some abductions and some destructions continued which could have been to press the State to hasten for the talks.
Unfortunately enough, Mathew Kahane, the UNDP Res.Rep in Nepal bluntly told that the UN could come to the scene only when approached by the two contending forces or else they will not step in. Kahane’s message must have come as a disappointment for the Maoists, at least for now.
That the Maoists still have plans to demonstrate their muscle gets reflected from the media reportings that they were all set to attack some more places in the near future. The districts targeted, as per the media reports, were located in three different locations. Reports have it that they have targeted districts in the Eastern, Central and the Western sectors. The idea is to attack at a time those three district headquarters much the same way they did in Bhojpur and Myagdi.
Taplejung, Khotang, Ramechhap and Sindhuli are some of the districts which apparently have become the next target of the Maoists. The other places, according to media reports, where the Maoists could attack could be Lamjung and Tanahun.
In sum, what is clear from all these media presumptions is that the Maoists will concurrently carry the resumption of the talks and the attacks on strategically vulnerable districts. This they would presumably do to exhibit the other camp that they were not at all a spent force and that they were still kicking and alive to take up the challenges coming from the other camp.
This could be a strategy to extract greater concessions at times of the talks, if held in the near future.
Informed sources claim that the Thapa government has already initiated contacts with the Maoists through its own channels. Sources close to Thapa camp say that talks would be resumed soon and that the difference lay only in who should first declare the ceasefire?
Government sources say that if the other camp does not declare ceasefire prior to the government, the latter might herself do it for the Maoists and the Maoists might follow the suit.
However, what the government sources do not reveal is that whether the UN will be invited or the talks will resume as usual with “highly incompetent” Nepali facilitators?
Media reports have it that Thapa might declare a ceasefire by the end of April.
The Maoists will hopefully endorse Thapa’s ceasefire announcement.
Non-partisan observers say that the Maoists will agree for the talks given the changed attitude of neighboring India which has acquired a tough stance vis-à-vis the Maoists of late. The Indian side now links the Maoists with the Kamta Pur Liberation Organization-an outfit that is creating havoc in India enjoying close cooperation supposedly with Nepal’s Maoists. The Indian assumption is that the KLO men sneak into Nepalese territories upon creating troubles in India and the Maoists hide in Indian territory after creating troubles in Nepal.
Is it that the Maoists really afraid of Indian wrath? Could be. Could be not.
However, looking at Mahara’s somewhat apologetic statement that henceforth their cadres will not damage the Indian vehicles plying in Nepal provides some food for thought to those who say that the Maoists can’t afford to annoy India for varied explainable and unexplainable reasons.
All said and done, the majority of the population believes that wisdom will prevail on both the sides and the talks will resume at the earliest.