Talks have resumed; possibility of resurrection of war remains

August 20, 2003
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Kathmandu: The resumption of the government-Maoist talks have not at all averted the dangers of the resumption of yet another war in between the two warring sides who though reluctantly sat for the third round of talks.

The crisis continues. Both the sides appear determined to push their declared agenda come what may.

Analysts opine that it is not the government but the Maoists who appear adamant on their agenda. On the contrary, the government in an unprecedented and unbelievable manner announced plans and policies to be undertaken to accommodate the Maoists agenda should the talks come to an end positively.

The Maoists have summarily rejected the government political agenda stating that they wish to listen from the government side its position and stand on the following: the King; the army and the constituent assembly.

“If these are not brought into the picture, why for we created a havoc for all along these seven years”, said a Bhattarai—the Maoist negotiator immediately after the government announced its broader plans and policies in order to appease the Maoists side.

Visibly, the Maoists side will not settle for less unless it is assured by the establishment side that the role of the King and the Army will be cut down from what it is today.

The Maoists wish a reduced role of the Nepali monarchy—the government will perhaps not agree to it. The Maoists prefer the army’s role substantially reduced and the security organ being put under the broad umbrella of the parliament—the government apparently reject this demand for obvious reasons. The Maoists wish elections to the constituent assembly to which the government says that if the Maoists demands could be met with by incorporating and effecting certain substantial changes in the existing constitution, there is no need to go in for a constituent assembly as strongly and very forcefully demanded by the other camp.

If this is so then what is evident is that the Maoists and the government will agree to disagree with each other and will in all probability work out another date for yet another round of discussion.

That they will not agree this time around becomes clear from the expressions emanating from the two camps: the Maoists wish that the government comes forward with some more tangible concessions and rewrites the already declared government political agenda that suits to their political interests and the struggle that they waged for all along these seven years.

The government wishes to buy time and prefers to linger the issue stating that let the members of the civil society, the lay men , the political parties and the intellectuals debate on the political agenda just released by the establishment side prior to the happening of the talks in Nepalganj, Sunday. The government in doing so apparently wishes that the broader reform and the political package it has released will have a wide ranging impact, albeit a positive one, on the population including the political parties which in turn could be used to “press” the adamant Maoists to comply with. In other words, the government expects that the majority of the population will support its programs just released which time permitting will act as a handy-popular tool to press the Maoists to compromise on the lines charted by the government. The fact is that the government’’ political agenda released Sunday, fortunately, addresses most of the demands of the Maoists which they have been aspiring for. Analysts maintain that the Maoists side must not have even thought that the government would go to this extent in addressing their agenda and that too in such an elaborate manner that the released agenda looks like as if the government wishes to turn Nepal into a Ram Rajya.

The government talks of the Dalits, the women folks, and the oppressed class and assures that a certain percentage of the seats in the affairs of the state, including the parliament and the upper house, for these neglected and hated class will be kept reserved. This means that the government is now ready to address the issues raised by the Maoists since long. A number of Dalits and the men from the oppressed class have welcomed the government’s plan to the utter dismay and perhaps displeasure of the Maoists.

Nevertheless, the mood of the Maoists is to extract good amount of concessions from the other camp. This they apparently are doing to either appease their own cadres or to justify their seven years old struggle-violence.

Reports have it that the Maoists side have already been assured by the government side that their demand of an interim arrangement and the round table conference could easily be met. Sources in Nepalganj reveal that the government is ready to invite Maoists leaders in an interim arrangement at a later stage. Not very surprisingly the Maoists expect or have been seducing the government side that they should be allowed to head the interim cabinet if at all it comes into existence. However, who will head such an interim arrangement is not yet decided.

Be that as it may, of the three important demands of the Maoists—interim arrangement, round-table conference and a constituent assembly—two have already been tentatively met with. What remains is the election to the constituent assembly, which the government appears to ignore at least for the time being.

Thus what comes to the fore is that the government will bank on the support of the civil society and of the political parties and the lay men, the Maoists will continue to extract extra mileage and in the process of achieving their goals they might use both the tactics of terror and negotiations. This gets reflected from the fact that they are in the negotiations and they are fighting with the state security organs.

The political parties have turned down the government plans summarily for their own understandable reasons.

By the way, countries like United States, and the United Kingdom have gleefully appreciated the government’s broader and all pervasive plans just announced to address the major issues put forth by the Maoists. Neighboring India too has welcomed the government plans. To recall, India continues to dub the Nepali Maoists as terrorists. Nepali Maoists supposedly hide in India, which the establishment knows. India is simply great.

All in all, the dark clouds are still hovering over Nepali sky. The talks might fail. Not very surprising therefore the army’s from both the camps have been kept on RED ALERT.