Kathmandu: Unsubstantiated reports have it that UML leader, Madhav Kumar Nepal, is yet to decide as to whether his association with the Congress and the smaller communist parties in the coalition against regression would benefit him and his party politically or would boomerang his prospects for the post for which he has been presumably struggling since a year or so.
Mr. Nepal naturally got a jerk when his Commander of the coalition, President Koirala of the split congress, suddenly appealed for a unity bid with the other half led by Sher Bahadur Deuba. Thanks that Deuba forwarded certain harsh conditions that put Koirala in the dock. The conditions were such that neither Koirala could afford to accept it nor dare to ignore.
Sources preferring anonymity say that the conditions put forth by Deuba were the brain child of Madhav Nepal. They hasten to add that if the unity move initiated by Koirala materialized, it would have been Madhav Nepal and his party the loser at time of the elections. Moreover, Madhav Nepal knew in advance that if Koirala is told to recommend for the restoration of Deuba’s government, he would summarily reject the offer and this rejection would mean much to Madhav Nepal and his party for varied reasons.
Whether Madhav offered his suggestions to Deuba or not is not that important. What is significant is that the two congress parties have yet to reconcile on so many counts. This means that the UML is still the largest party and will continue to be so till the congress unification efforts take a formal shape.
Naturally the UML has upper hand in today’s Nepali politics.
Informed sources claim that Madhav Nepal is not wholeheartedly in favor of taking the agitation to a new height for his own reasons. However, the fact is also that he is with the agitation partners for fear of being sidelined if he exhibited his reluctance in favor of the agitation.
“The UML leader is experiencing pressure from his own party comrades to make the agitation a grand success. If he does not act as per the party’s dictates, he might be taken as a leader possessing some soft-corner for the Palace”, said one non-UML communist leader.
It is not for nothing Comrade Rohit suspects that he was not sure of the bigger parties intents if they were provided with the “power lolly-pop” in the mid of the impending agitation.
Moreover, the UML party understands that if the King yielded upon pressure this time, he would certainly invite either its leader Madhav Nepal to take up the post of the Prime Minister or at best could invite Deuba. The presumption is that even if Deuba is made the country’s prime minister, Mr. Nepal can fair smoothly because of their continuing close friendship. The same is true for Deuba. He too hopes that if Mr. Nepal is elevated to that rank, he too can extract political benefits by forging a sort of alliance at time of the election.
President Koirala is a seasoned political creature. He understands about this possibility and hence appears alert on how the coalition partners perform during the agitation that is to begin from tomorrow.
On a different plain, there is a rumor that hints that there were three good names who are being tipped as next prime minister.
For a free and fair election, the name of a retired SC judge, Mr. Keshav Upadhyaya, is in the rumor. For healing the wounds of the “incompetent” prime minister, the King might think elevating Deuba.
Now that the elections have been announced, even if it were in a vague manner, how the major political actors take up or reject the election challenge will have to be watched.
The ground reality, say analysts, is that all the major forces, the King and the political parties must reconcile and arrive at a sort of compromise and run the country. Such a compromise, if at all that becomes a reality, will have to chart out a plan on how to address the Maoists concerns.
The fact is that the nation can’t afford to remain in a politically stagnant situation as is is today.