Kathmandu: As discussions on the budget tabled Monday in parliament become nothing more than routine, several trends become clear. The Prime Minister is not going to resign. Even if he does so, his parliamentary party will reelect him. This is unless his party-men that oppose his leadership will vote with the UML in a motion of no confidence. The motion of no confidence is yet to be tabled in the parliament. Moreover, the UML whose boycott of parliament has already begun after the discussions on the government programs concluded, appears to have lost partners in the RPP and the Sadbhavana who refuse to join the boycott.

Girija babu thus appears to have gained allies in the RPP and Sadbhavana who will perhaps carry the budget session through with their attendance. The UML’s loss in their boycott program is the government’s, read, Girija babu’s gain. And so, another clear trend, the UML’s boycott in the parliament to have any meaning can only mean more street activities.

For the lay public, both the government and the UML credibility are at an all time low. No amount of assurance on the part of either the government or the opposition to appease a hard-pressed public is of much meaning. The budget discussions thus appear to be of little value to the public who by now are used to dismissing government claims as mere politics and unreal.

What is real however, is the increasing number of incidence of the Maoists action where government appears merely a spectator. That these incidences have come home to Kathmandu valley threatens the very foundations of the system. The point is that the UML in the opposition would seem as much a proxy partner of the government as the government itself to the general mass in dealing with this reality.

Yet another trend readily perceived by the public is the escape that politics seeks in the recent change in the Palace. If the Maoists have blatantly targeted the new King, parliament appears as guilty in flirting with the idea. Last week saw both the congress and the opposition attempt to play Palace vulnerabilities with discussions on the role of succession. This was moreover, accompanied by a carefully timed news item on Prince Paras later denied by the Army and the defense ministry.

The strategy in a hidden agenda presumably would seem sinister. It is the strength of the traditional institution of the monarchy that allowed the nation to ride the disaster of the past month in that very apex institution. The idea apparently is to erode it further. Pressures on the new monarchy have been subtly maintained thus. Regardless of the near paralysis of governance in the country, this serves to divert public attention as much as it serves to inhibit a possible source of correction. More importantly perhaps the possibility of an overall strategy to undermine the monarchy at this very highly sensitive stage has presumably designs yet to be fully assessed.

It is not for nothing that the Maoists deliberately attack the king and the congress as one. It is not for nothing again that the congress doesn’t deny King Gyanendra’s alleged linkages with the Maoists. The UML on the other hand has its role in precipitating a parliamentary crisis. Given these three poles-triangles, the drama being played is surely a dangerous one for the nation.