After the grand inauguration of Qinghai- Tibet Railway, the geo-strategic position of Himalayan region has undergone a profound change as this miracle of technology has opened a new vista of opportunity for close cooperation for the development among the countries of this region. The coming response from the largest and powerful country south of Himalaya would determine if this new change in strategically important place would result in tranquility and peace in the region. Sandwiched between two Asian powers – India and China which are yet to settle their long border disputes in Himalayan region – the challenge for Nepal, which has been suffering from fear psychosis of its neighbors, is how to grasp the new opportunities lying just north of its border. Whether somebody likes it or not and irrespective of the nature of government in Kathmandu, Nepal, which may have to suffer more painful situation in coming days, has to live with the new reality. At a time when Chinese authorities have already expressed their willingness to bring the railway connection to the border points, it would also influence Nepal’s future geo-strategic position
By KESHAB POUDEL
Less than twenty four hours after the inauguration of Qinghai-Tibet railway, the first rail road linking Tibet with the rest of China, by Chinese president Hu Jintao, a group of Tibetan refugees in exile in India organized a demonstration in their headquarters Shimla, a state capital of Himanchal State of India, terming the scientific miracle as a black day. The refugees also drew the conclusion that the rail way is a threat to their motherland as well as security of India.
Although the rail way, observers see, paves the way for close cooperation between countries in the Himalayan region, the demonstration organized by Tibetan refugees gave a different message that India is yet to reconcile with China despite the opening up of Nathu la Pass trade route and confidence building measures between them.
Chinese mandarins view the strong presence of Tibetan refugees in India as a security threat to them, how China will take this kind of threat issued from the Tibetan refugees in India is anybody’s guess.
“Yes, it has brought a hope to entire region but it is just an outmoded and narrow-minded view to see it as a security threat to India. China definitely has a military capability to create threat to any power in the world. But, the way China has modernized its economy, slowly and gradually, its society also tends to open and liberalize. There are well-educated persons in press and politics in India who don’t distrust and mistrust China’s bonafide intention to be a partner in development,” said a political analyst. “China is definitely in a competition of a very vast scale and faster speed but that is mainly on its economic development and linking its economy with world economy. That way, the trend of development in China is for global partnership for peace and independence.”
Other scholars, too, argue that China threat continues to haunt the Indian mindset. “However, the China threat continues to dominate the Indian strategic horizon. The China factor has been a critical and constant element in the Indian security equation since 1962 – Sino-Indian war through the first Chinese nuclear test in 1964,”writes Pal Singh Siddhu and Jing-Dong Yuan in the book “ China and India Cooperation or Conflict.” “Until now the absence of a railway network meant that only the limited network of narrow roads could be used to deploy the infantry. However, the move to build 1,118 Kilometers railway line connecting Golmud in the western territory of Qinghai to Lhasa, the capital of Tibet, which is expected to be completed by 2005, is likely to dramatically improve China’s military capability in Tibet.”
Despite all out efforts, the Himalaya region is yet to find the respite from hostility, covert and overt, between the two big powers. “The Himalayan region occupies a strategic position between China and India. Although factors of tensions and instability are always present in this region- because of unresolved territorial disputes and also political upheavals in Nepal – a new era in regional diplomacy is about to start as China takes steps to realize its priority for economic development in a peaceful environment. “As the hinterland of the Himalayas, Tibet is at the forefront of China’s strategy in this region. The impact of that strategy on China’s perception of the Tibet issues needs to be reassessed in the context of China’s “Go West” policy and trade diplomacy toward South Asia,” writes Thierry Mathou, a carrier diplomat and an associated political scientist with the Department of Himalayan Studies of the National Center for Scientific Research, Paris, in his article “Tibet and Its Neighbors, moving toward a New Chinese Strategy in the Himalayan Region” published in Asian survey issue of July August 2005.
“Until recently, China’s strategy in the Himalayan region was essentially conservative because of recurrent tensions with India and a defensive approach to the Tibet issue. With the easing of tension and implementation of its western region development program, the People’s Republic of China is reconsidering the role of Tibet within its own territory and also in the Himalayan regional context. This does not mean, however, that China is taking a new approach on the Tibet issue; it only implies a change of perspective in geopolitical terms. From being an underdeveloped and landlocked area located in the backyard of the Chinese territory far from Beijing, the Tibetan Autonomous Region could become a bridge between China and South Asia,” Mathou writes.
According to the analyst, China is a factor in the international politics which cannot be ignored. “In the first phase of development, China developed certain economic zones. In the present stage, China has a priority for development in its interior backward parts including Tibet. The massive infrastructures of roads and railways in Tibet have opened a possibility of closer economic cooperation with India and other countries south of the Himalayas. It has equally posed a serious security challenge to India from north. Apprehending the implications of developed infrastructures in Tibet, India has increased worries about its security in the north. Its hectic activities have far fetched reflections in Nepal which needs no elaboration,” said the analyst.
Turmoil in Nepal
Following the beginning of construction of Tibet Railway in June, Nepal has seen many tragic political situations with unmanageable level till now. From massacre of Royal family members in early June of 2001 and ascending to the throne by inexperienced but arrogant King, Nepal’s five years political history has seen many ups and downs.
Following the intensification of Maoist insurgency in 2001, Nepal has lost almost all institutions built in the past step by step. Following the dismissal of elected government led by Sher Bahadur Deuba in October 4, 2002 by King Gyanendra, the pace of destruction of political and other traditional institution accelerated.
After April 2006, along with the Constitution of Kingdom of Nepal 1990 all institutions and practices developed in the last five decades are on the process of destruction. In a fragile situation, nobody knows what will be the fate of the country and who will be the next victim of political change.
China’s Rise
For smaller countries like Nepal with long border with China, it cannot ignore the rise of China at its policy level. The government, of any form and color, may come and go but this reality is going to be there.
“For perhaps the first time in Asia’s history- certainly for the first time since European colonialism- a security architecture that is continent-wide security interdependence, which is converting the landmass called Asian into a region, is clearly linked to the rise of China. In other words, if a rising China did not exist, there would be no Asia- in geopolitical terms. However, China is rising, and every one of China’s neighbors has to make this fact an integral part of their policy calculus,” writes Varun Sahni, professor of international politics at Jawaharlal Nehru University in New Delhi in his article India and the Asian Security Architecture in current history. “India’s emergence, of course, cannot be considered in isolation. It is occurring against the backdrop of the rise of China. Beijing is working hard to signal to its neighbors that its rise is “peaceful,” the odyssey of a large country on the road to development rather than the onward march of a rising power.”
On the eve of growing political tensions ,China sent a senior official Tang Jiaxuan, state Councilor of the People’s Republic of China to Nepal in March. “China and Nepal are close neighbors on the two sides of the Himalayan Mountains and have a long history of friendly ties. It is said that more than two thousand years ago, Manjushri came all the way from the Wutai Mountains in China to Nepal. Historical records show that the friendly exchanges of China and Nepal date back to as early as the mid-7th century,” said Jiaxuan in his statement in Kathmandu. “We consistently support Nepal in its effort to safeguard sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity. Nepal is a sovereign country, and its internal affairs shall not be interfered with in any way by any outside forces,” he added.
Despite efforts to build confidence, there are still some irritants in India-China relations. “Although highly publicized, especially in China, India’s declaration that it “recognizes that the Tibet Autonomous region is a part of the territory of the People’s Republic of China and reiterates that it does not allow Tibetans to engage in anti-China political activities in India” did not depart from New Delhi’s traditional policy toward the Tibet issues. China, on the other hand, prefers to downplay politics, at least for the time being, in order to clear the ground for its economic strategy,” writes Mathou.
Whether one likes it or not, the railways have ushered in a new era in the Himalayan region. “Geopolitically speaking, this is most unprecedented development and credit goes to science and technology,” said Dr. Upendra Gautam, general secretary of China Study Center Nepal. “In trans-Himalayan relationship, the impact – which it will create in Trans-Himalayan relationship – will be historic. The railways integrates Tibet with rest of China. In terms of China’s international relations, it is unprecedented. It will contribute to the mobility of people. Tibet is no more remote part of the world,” he said.
Implications For Nepal
Chinese leaders have already declared that the railway is going to be extended further south including to the border areas of Nepal. In the future, the main railway could be extended from the Lhasa to the border area in Southern Tibet.
“Although the adequate sources of financing are often lacking, considerable attention is also being paid to road building and renovation of existing state high ways. Special efforts are being made to strengthen the so-called ‘ three vertical and two horizontal links’ namely the China-Nepal, Qinghai-Tibet, Xingjian-Tibet, Tibet-Sichuan, and Tibet-Yunan highways that are supposed to place the TAR in the middle of a hypothetical network stretching form central to South Asia. The development of a rail link between Tibet and Inner China will further exacerbate the trend of integration and development. In the medium term, an extension of the rail link could also facilitate communication between Tibet and other Himalayan states and regions and benefit Tibet. The consequences could be strategic as well as economic. With the extension of the transportation network in the border areas, China intends not only to enhance its capacity in terms of border defense and internal control but also to create the conditions for transforming Tibet into a trading hub in the Himalayan region, which has become one of the objectives of Beijing’s bilateral diplomacy towards Nepal, India and Bhutan,” writes Mathou.
“The opening of Yadong area has been listed as a priority in the TAR’s 10th Five-Year Plan. This district, adjacent to Bhutan on the east, used to be the region’s largest land port. TAR officials expect an increase in border trade of 15 percent annually when Yadong is reopened. From the Chinese point of view, such a move is intended not only to boost the economy in Tibet but also to fuel foreign trade in China’s western areas such as Qinghai, Gansu province and the Xinjiang Uighur Autonomous Region. Currently exports from these areas to South Asian countries have to go through Guangzhou or Hong Kong. Via these routes, the transportation distance could be shorted by more than 5,600 miles.”
The train Beautiful wonder
The train Beautiful wonder
Experts argue that with the opening of the Qinghai-Tibet Railway, Yadong is expected to play an even more important role in the development of China’s western areas. Recent shifts in the Sino-Indian relationship in the Himalayas do not mean that all sources of bilateral tensions there have disappeared. The two sides have yet to fully demarcate their respective territories.
The improvement of infrastructures in Tibet in northern part of Nepal will have many implications to mountains and hilly region and it will also help to maintain supply of essential commodities to these areas. Few years ago, Nepal Food Corporation sent tons of rice to Nepal’s northern districts through the Tibetan roads.
“How China takes recent developments in Nepal will have a decisive effect upon India-China relationship at least for the present. If India emerges as a dominant power in Nepal, it would have a negative impact in the relationship of both China and India,” said an analyst.
Chinese scholars supports Nepal’s independence for their own security. “Nepal’s independence is essential prerequisite for China’s security. Nepal living under the security umbrella of India is possibly a constant threat to Chinese security. The strong presence of Tibetan separatist in India and Nepal-India open border are such matters which will not permit Nepal to be part of any country’s security umbrella,” writes professor Wang in his book Nepal’s National Defense Strategy and Nepal-China Relations published in 2005.
If Nepal’s political situation turns more chaotic, other power will definitely try to intervene. The political stability in Nepal is in the interest of both the neighbors. The recent remarks by Indian leader Sitaram Yechuri, who came to Nepal after a briefing of Indian prime minister, also points to this interest. Yechuri who was instrumental in bringing about recent changes and upheavals in Nepal stated that now the country needs stability – an indication of a larger wish among Indians. “The political developments – which have taken place in Nepal after the Delhi Declaration of November 2005 reportedly prepared with the initiative of India – have partly internal and party an external effect. Internally, it will take a lengthy and complicated process to stabilize a popularly built up political process but its external impacts have not assured even the USA and other western countries. Silence from China on this matter might be a lull before the storm,” said the analyst.
“China is relaxed and it does not have worries regarding political development,” said a Chinese diplomat on condition of anonymity. “We hope Nepal will secure the lasting peace and prosperity.”
If China responds with the same security concern – which India has in Nepal, the collision in peace may create a cold war like environment which may involve at least this region. “One cannot rule out its negative prospect observing the mind set of the security agencies and hardened bureaucracy of the South Block,” said the analyst.
Chinese scholars have already described that Nepal’s open border with India and strong presence of Tibetan refugees in India is serious security threat to China. “There are still constraints and irritants in our relationship. The strong presence of illegal immigrants from China’s Tibet in Nepal and their separatist activities being launched from the Nepalese soil at the backing of the anti-Chinese international lobby has been a constant sore in Nepal-China relations,” said Madan Regmi, chairman of China Study Center.
Course of Uncertainty
Although the railway brings an opportunity for prosperity, no one can predict the future course of the region. The changing geo-strategic position may bring about prosperity and cooperation just as it could trigger devastating results.
“It is unfortunate for whole world that a great opportunity for peace and cooperation between India and China might be wasted due to the trauma Indian security experts suffer from given the history of 1962 reversal. That leadership and attitude is not in China now but it has left scar on the relation between the two countries. And smaller neighbors are worse sufferers of which Nepal is a tragic example,” said the political analyst. “Whatever complains the people may have against King Gyanendra, declaring Nepal as a transit country between India and China cost him all his royal position.”
Chinese diplomats in Nepal argue that they don’t want competition in Nepal with other power for destruction but what they genuinely want is the competition on development and progress of Nepal.
For Nepal, there is hope as well as despair. “China has a chain of command of overall system whereas India lacks that. The disadvantage with China is a monolithic structure of the state and governance whereas positive side of India is a well built up system of open and competitive society. Chain has advanced much in defense as well as economic development. India, too, has advanced much after the liberalization from 1992. China and India are two biggest and most powerful countries of Asia at present and have possibility of emerging as global powers,” said the analyst. Despite difference in political system, China has been able to build up relations of trust and cooperation with the western world whereas that is not the same with India-China relations.
India’s Old Mindset
The military setback of India in 1962 has had a lasting impact in the Indian mindset. “Though Vietnam and Cambodia had suffered much more with the USA in a war than any other countries but they have at present the best of economic relationship with that country. India did not have such conflict with the USA but the influence of dissolved Soviet Union has left a powerful psychological hangover. Not only communist but a substantial section of a middle class of India still has mindset that America is imperialist power which has deterrent effect in India’s closer relations with the west,” said the analyst.
The old mind set continues to influence India’s perception towards China also. In his recent article in Pioneer Daily, G. Parthasarathy, person who was one of the architects of India’s foreign policy during the heydays of Indira Gandhi, termed China as a threat to Indian security.
“Despite these developments, China remains the most destabilizing factor for Indian national security. It has consistently sought to undermine India’s influence in Asia and indeed across the world,” writes Parathasarathy.
With the opening of railways, there has opened a great chance for development and prosperity. However, the fate of this region is hanging upon whether there will be peace of permanent nature, or war of varied forms of, overt and covert, between two Asian giants.
Qinghai Tibet Railway
There are some startling facts associated with the building of the Qinghai-Lhasa railway that has redrawn the face of Himalayan region in terms of development.
The Qinghai-Tibet Railway is the first railroad linking Tibet with the rest of China. China has solved three major difficulties, frozen tundra, high altitude and plateau environmental protection, to rewrite the history of global railway construction.
None of the hundreds of thousands of railway builders died of altitude sickness during the construction. The railway is the world’s highest railway. Some 960 kilometers of its tracks are located 4,000 meters above sea level and the highest point is 5,072 meters, at least 200 meters higher than the Peruvian railway in the Andes, which was formerly the world’s most elevated rail.
The railway is the worlds longest on a plateau, extending 1,956 kilometers from Qinghai’s provincial capital Xining to Lhasa in Tibet. The newly-completed Golmud-Lhasa section zigzags 1,142 kilometers across the Kunlun and Tanggula mountain ranges.
About 550 kilometers of the tracks run on frozen earth, the longest in any of the world’s plateau railways. Tanggula Railway Station, 5,068 meters above sea level, is the highest railway station in the world.
Fenghuoshan Tunnel, 4,905 meters above sea level, is the world’s most elevated tunnel on frozen earth. Kunlun Mountain Tunnel, running 1,686 meters, is the world’s longest plateau tunnel built on frozen earth.
Upon its completion, the maximum train speed is designed to reach 100 kilometers per hour in the frozen earth areas and 120 kilometers per hour on non-frozen earth.
Construction of the Golmud-Lhasa section of the landmark railway commenced on June 29, 2001. About 29.46 billion yuan (US$3.68 billion) have been spent on the Golmud-Lhasa section which runs 1,142 kilometers.
A hard seat sells for 389 yuan (US$48.6) from Beijing to Lhasa, while hard sleeper costs 813 yuan (US$101), and the price for a soft sleeper is 1,262 yuan (US$158).
The Mountains of Tanggula, meaning “mountains on the plateau” in Tibetan, was regarded as “insurmountable even by eagles” in the eyes of locals, where the lowest temperature reach 45 Celsius degree under zero. It is also the source area of the Yangtze River, the longest river in China.
The train, “Tibet 2”, carries about 700 passengers with 16 carriages. It will run more than 2,100 kilometers across “the roof of the world” and is expected to arrive at the terminal of Lanzhou in some 30 hours.
Although the oxygen content at the Tanggula Mountain Pass is only 50-60 percent of that at sea level, no passengers on “Tibet 2 ” felt sick thanks to the oxygen supply on the train, according to Xinhua reporters on the train.
Tanggula Railway Station, the worlds highest at 5,068 meters above sea level, has no stationed workers because of the high altitude. The equipment of the station is controlled via the satellite and its operation is also under the eyes of long-distance monitoring system.
Experts and builders overcame three difficulties, namely frozen tundra, high altitude and plateau environmental protection, to finish the track-laying of the more challenging Golmud-Lhasa section in last October.
The entire railway around the Tanggula Mountain Pass runs on frozen earth, which “posed a major challenge to the railway construction,” said La Youyu, deputy director-general of the headquarters for the Qinghai-Tibet Railway construction.
“Frozen earth is vulnerable to climate change, which will thaw in summer and distend the railway base in winter,” La said. To avoid possible dangers, the deputy director-general said, designers of the railway used technology of heat preservation, slope protection and roadbed ventilation in frozen earth areas.
Courtesy : Spotlight
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