Maoists are steering the political agenda in a direction where the destination is unclear
By Ashok K Mehta
Peace processes have their own dynamics and longevity. The one playing out in Nepal is surely unique: The political settlement was cobbled together even before the armed conflict had ended without any outside facilitation. And the speed with which agreements are being churned out in Kathmandu is both surprising and spectacular.
Till recently Nepal was being called a failed state and likened to the tunnel at the end of light. The dramatic turnaround and euphoria is being cautiously ascribed to the “Nepali way” of conflict resolution and numerology. Count the points. A 12-point letter of understanding, 25-point code of conduct, 10-point parliamentary proclamation, 8-point summit accord and so on. Aggregated, these exceed the 43 demands put up by the Maoists a decade ago. Make no mistake. The Maoists are steering the political agenda in a direction where the destination is unclear.
Accompanying the revolutionary change to a new Nepal is inelegant haste and constitutional confusion. In 15 days an interim Constitution, in 30 days an alternative arrangement to the reinstated Parliament replaced by an interim Government and other unrealistic demands and deadlines which are now being contested by the Seven-Party Alliance (SPA). Many Ambassadors are cooling their heels, unclear about whom they should present their credentials to. Two of them simply went to the King who is keeping a very low profile these days.
Prime Minister Girija Prasad Koirala.
(Photo source : AP)
Who or what in Nepal is the legitimate authority? Parliament? The People? Or Prachanda? Power at the end of the second Spring Revolution in Nepal has got diffused. There is no longer a sole pole. Eager to transit from non-state to state category, the Maoists want to grab the political space. Hence, the urgency to join an interim Government.
An ailing Prime Minister GP Koirala – with two Deputy Prime Ministers and a powerful Speaker in tow – is also a man in a hurry. He wants multi-party democracy restored and embedded in his lifetime but with some space kept for a ceremonial monarchy. This has drawn a lot of flak. He has drawn India into the process of rebuilding Nepal. Prachanda, his eminence grise, is opposed to any role for the King and India. As differences and disagreements remain despite all the agreements, hearts and deadlines are bound to be broken.
After Mr Koirala the divisions in the SPA will come out into the open. It will then be advantage Prachanda. A Nepal without Mr Koirala at this time is unthinkable. Only he is capable of containing Prachanda. India and the international community have to act as a buffer between the SPA and the Maoists. Having helped craft the 12-point letter of understanding between the two last year in New Delhi, India has a responsibility in monitoring and guiding both the peace and political process. Alas, India has developed a penchant for acting only in crisis.
Maoist leader Prachanda.
(Photo source : hindu.com)
Prachanda’s political performance at his first Press conference in Kathmandu recently was breathtaking. He praised the revolution but castigated the Government and the Nepal Army, saying all it had done was kill people and rape women. As none of the political leaders sharing the dais with Prachanda cared to defend the Army, it fell on the official spokesman to repudiate Prachanda’s charges. But it was Prachanda’s day. ‘The Furious One’ was in total command as the SPA leaders minus Mr Koirala were spellbound.
If the current peace and political process is to remain on track and glitch-free, certain correctives have to be applied to the existing agreements. First and foremost, Maoists have to match their deeds with words and give up their bad habits. The Maoists and Government ceasefires have to be merged into a formal ‘Cease Fire Agreement’ (CFA) signed by Mr Koirala and Prachanda.
The Maoists, while joining the political mainstream, should declare an end to their armed campaign. The 25-point code of conduct and the Cease Fire Monitoring Mechanism being imprecise, have to be refined. The role of the 31-member Civil Society Monitoring Mission is equally vague. Some of its members, including the chairman, have declined to join it. It was patently unwise equating the Maoist Liberation Army with the Nepal Army. But so great was the revulsion for the King’s Army that both sides acquiesced to it easily.
The Maoists need to declare the strength, location and weapons of the PLA so that it can be registered prior to the UN managing and monitoring the arms and armies of the two sides. How demilitarisation will lead to decommissioning of Maoist arms is still unspecified. The process of Demilitarisation, Decommissioning and Reintegration (DDR) is very complex and sensitive. The Maoists are estimated to have an army of 7,000 with approximately 3,500 hand-held weapons. While the strength of the Nepal Army is 90,000, the Armed Police Force is 40,000 and the Police, 60,000. As the agreements were made without conflict experts, many issues remain to be addressed before management of arms and armies is taken up in the run up to elections to the Constituent Assembly.
The Maoists need to declare the strength, location and weapons of the PLA so that it can be registered prior to the UN managing and monitoring the arms and armies of the two sides. How demilitarisation will lead to decommissioning of Maoist arms is still unspecified.
Elections to the Constituent Assembly is not an end of the democratic journey for constitutional forces. It is no secret that the destination the Maoists are seeking is a Communist Republic of Nepal. It would be singularly imprudent on the part of the Government to further demoralise the Nepal Army as long as the Maoists retain their guns. The Government, in its urge towards confidence building and appeasing the Maoists, has committed the cardinal error of releasing the Maoist prisoners. It is the only leverage it has in ensuring that the weapons held by the Maoists are decommissioned.
India has wisely chosen to become the key stakeholder in Nepal’s economic reconstruction. Much was made of Mr Koirala on his recent visit to Delhi. It was he who got the peace process restored and an agreed political package in place. Unfortunately, the joint road map hastily assembled has many holes.
The Indian Government has some responsibility in shaping certain aspects of the plan for a new Nepal. Besides helping in remaking democratic institutions, it must assist in the reconfiguration of the Nepal Army right from its motto to morale and operational thinking. The Indian Army, with its Gorkha battalions outnumbering the entire infantry of the Nepal Army, can turn it around into a professional and apolitical force, which is an asset for nation building. India should also offer to help under the UN flag in the management of arms and armies during the election process.
But all these offers of help are contingent upon both sides in Nepal agreeing to India’s shared participation in building a new Nepal. The most crucial issue in the evolving peace process is the question of Maoists arms (and intentions). They cannot realistically expect to becoming part of an interim Government with their arms in hand. Let the gun be muzzled and the people of Nepal determine the Prachanda-power.
Major General (Retd.) of the Indian Army, Mehta writes on security related issues and Nepal-India relations. This article has been reproduced here courtesy: Pioneer, a leading Indian newspaper.—Ed.
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