Kathmandu: – Things inevitably will await His Majesty’s return from London a fortnight hence by which time the course of Nepali politics will have crystallized at home. There is little chance that the Maoists will set the date for the next round of talks by then since their posture is that they are talking to the “OLD REGIME” of which the King is the kingpin. Focus thus shifts to actions of the five agitating parties who claim that a decisive agitation is underway.

The parties who hold monopoly of political organizations have been pulling their nationwide cadre to Kathmandu for street demonstrations. Their presence in class and professional organizations give them the advantage to stir public services and the threat is to paralyze essential delivery systems in government. The academic sector which compose the vanguard of any political agitation in the country are already astir.

So much is obvious. What is not is the government reaction is the government reaction to this pre-announced movement. A safe guess is that government will resort to administrative moves to counter the agitation. The chances that alternative political sectors will be mobilized to fail the movement appear dim. Thapa’s own party is not with him and the streets will be the agitator’s monopoly if Thapa is not to unleash the police.

Perhaps to strengthen his democratic image, Prime Minister Surya Bahadur Thapa will allow the demonstrations a limited presence and call for restraint. But this is hardly to suit the decisiveness of the agitation. Of course, no violent political movement apart from that underway by the Maoists is announced as violent. The agitating parties claim that their demonstrations will be peaceful. But it is certain that it will be violence that will provoke government reaction to expose its “undemocratic nature”.

So much is nearly certain. The guesswork will have to be on what will follow. How the Maoists will take advantage of this organized show will have to be awaited. How government will take on both fronts at this crucial juncture is what matters. It is clear that by time the King returns, Nepal’s fluid politics will have been made ripe for major change. Which way the change will be is what is anticipated.