Peace Talks and Post Conflict Roadmap

July 2, 2006
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Chances for building peace and new Nepal are now quite high but not assured. A lot can still go haywire

– By Dr. Som P. Pudasaini

The entire nation is anxious to get out of the decade-old conflict and seeks to understand post-conflict roadmap to find out if we will safely land in a peaceful, inclusive, just and brighter landscape. Peace talk is at a fragile and critical but a hopeful stage. Post-conflict picture is not yet visible as post-conflict planning has either not started or is at an embryonic phase. The uncertain peace talks and hazy post-conflict Nepal is a central concern in the contemporary national psyche.

Negotiations with a rebel outfit that has led a violent insurgency with a radical, complex and far reaching agenda for over a decade is unlikely to be easy and forecasting its outcome with any certainty is impossible at this stage. However, one may attempt to gauze its prospects within a framework of 5 C’s: clarity, confidence, compromise, continuity and commitment.

First of all, a successful negotiation demands a minimum clarity on negotiating position or “bottom-line’. An unconditional election of a constituent assembly and a multiparty democracy are the “bottom-line” for the Maoists and the state respectively. The Maoists and the state are in agreement on the bottom-line. Secondly, adequate confidence between the negotiating parties and amicable chemistry between negotiating teams are essential to sustain talks to logical conclusion in the face of many unexpected roadblocks. Release of Maoist detainees, removal of terrorist tag, permission to freely conduct political activities in rebel held areas, continuing informal consultations and concrete decisions during formal sessions etc exhibits existence of a reasonable mutual confidence so far.

Thirdly, compromise or flexibility to adjust expectations, egos and positions as per the unfolding reality remains at the heart of sound negotiations. Two rounds of talk, the summit meeting between Prachanda and the Prime Minister Koirala, Prachand’s reentry to Kathmandu to sort out confusions reflects a decent built-in flexibility mechanism to guide negotiations. Fourthly, continuity is indispensable for successful negotiations as building confidence and reaching agreements on a myriad of complex issues requires much more time than any genius can predict in the beginning. While talks have continued so far, it would have been more pragmatic to schedule 3-5 rounds of talks at the outset to assure predetermined continuity. It never hurts to agree on few more rounds as insurance against premature breakdown and any rounds unused after dealing with regular agenda can be utilized to thrash out other important issues such as restructuring, post-conflict plan, donor support.

Lastly, without a rock-solid commitment nothing succeeds. The parties in conflict have so far demonstrated commitment to bottom-line and negotiated settlement. It will be important to see if the commitment holds once more contentious issues such as arms management, interim constitution, formation of interim government, dissolution of the reinstated house of representative and Maoist local government confronts for decision. The tacit Indian support also helps strengthen the commitment of the parties in negotiation regardless of its other real or imagined implications.

Are there any critical components necessary for lasting peace and building a post-conflict Nepal missing? Rather than a “Ceasefire Agreement” that legally binds, only a code of conduct is in place. Instead of a strong truce monitoring mechanism managed by neutral and qualified persons, a politicized hotchpotch monitoring commission is being belatedly cobbled together. The Peace Secretariat lacks adequate capacity and leadership. Independent and visionary chief, qualified experts, proper documentation center, strengthened analytical capacity and lesser politicization and bureaucratization would offer effective support to the Peace Committee, the Monitoring Commission and the Negotiating Team.

Neither restructuring nor Relief, Rehabilitation and Reconstruction Plans are in the serious making. Reconciliation and penalization strategies are yet to be considered. Decommissioning, management of weapons and small arms, reintegration of the combatants, mechanisms to deal with crimes and ethnic and geographic tensions that may rise must be considered without much delay. The sooner the remedies for root causes of the conflict-ethnic, linguistic, regional, gender inequalities- are discussed and devised the better will be the prospects for a lasting peace as over 40 percent of conflicts are reported to return within 5 years and 50 percent within 10 years if they are not handled adequately.

Whether SPA can move together by discarding their old habit of playing unduly partisan and power politics is central to the success of the peace process and reform envisioned under the parliamentary “Declaration 2063”. Political polarization is already in the process. A democratic force lead by Girija Koirala with focus on liberal economy, ceremonial monarchy and milder restructuring of the state and a more radical left led by Prachand with a strong republican agenda and radical reform are in the offing. UML and Congress Democratic are stressed for effective space. RPP and RJP will have to earn relevance through renewal, modernization and unity.

Managing India and US for mainstreaming the rebels, including the fallouts of 8-points agreement of 16 June is likely to be trickiest of issues. The Chinese are quietly watching unfolding developments and must be assured of our mutual goodwill and interests. India, China, US, Japan and EU will have to be cultivated to be eager partners for implementing a comprehensive post-conflict roadmap.
Managing India and US for mainstreaming the rebels, including the fallouts of 8-points agreement of 16 June is likely to be trickiest of issues. The Chinese are quietly watching unfolding developments and must be assured of our mutual goodwill and interests. India, China, US, Japan and EU will have to be cultivated to be eager partners for implementing a comprehensive post-conflict roadmap.

Chances for building peace and new Nepal are now quite high but not assured. A lot can still go haywire. Economic issues and post-conflict planning are still in the backburner. Political resolution does not automatically ensure economic progress. People can’t eat or live on a good constitution even resulting from CA. It must guide everyone to deliver food, education, jobs, health services and opportunities to catch up with the fast moving neighbors and the rest of the world.

The Maoists have committed to competitive politics, peacefully negotiated settlement and liberal economy with safety-nets. They deserve everyone’s best wishes and blessings for their bold steps. They must, however, translate promises to actions and prove even to the worst of their doubters that they are not just “singing any tune” to grab power. The SPA will have to unitedly move ahead with the new vision beyond petty interests by mainstreaming the Maoists and constructively engaging any other relevant national and international forces to shape up a ” Sunder Shanta Sampanna” Nepal dreamt by the martyrs and the common folks alike. Otherwise, people may have to rise one more time to tame the Maoists and the parties as they did to tame the monarch last time. No one wants that at the moment.

– This is the synopsis of a talk delivered by Dr. Pudasaini at the Management Association of Nepal (MAN) last week. He has served as the Representative of United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) in Sri Lanka and Yemen and Country Director for Maldives and can be reached at [email protected]

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