A leading analyst on Nepal affairs, Rhoderick Chalmers, has warned that palace hardliners are the greatest threat to the future of the monarchy in the Himalayan kingdom.
His Majesty King Gyanendra (File Photo)
His Majesty King Gyanendra (File Photo)
In his latest commentary on the long-drawn political impasse in Nepal, Chalmers said, “At the moment, as thinking royalists have long realised, palace hardliners are the greatest threat to the future of the monarchy.”
In an article carried by The Indian Express, a leading Indian newspaper, on Monday, Chalmers wrote, “The palace now seems to have acquired a taste for replaying history. With only days to go before the anniversary of the last royal takeover, (last Thursday) Kathmandu once again awoke to cut phone lines, curfew orders and news that most democratic politicians had been detained.”
“Whatever his critics say, King Gyanendra’s steadfastness has pleased his supporters. He promised unwavering leadership and has stuck to his vow that “[outsiders] will say what they have to say but I will do what I have to do”. His refusal to bow to external pressure has played well among Nepali nationalists and he has successfully called the global community’s bluff. Those who never welcomed multiparty democracy have applauded the iron fist he has shown to the parties. But has he done what he had to do?,” he asked.
Addressing November’s SAARC summit, King Gyanendra explained that he would be able to hold municipal elections in February thanks to the “improved security situation”. His ministers have been boasting of having “broken the Maoists’ back” and insisting that the polls will, as promised, reinvigorate democracy. But the Maoists have now struck at Kathmandu militarily and all major parties, including royalists, are boycotting the elections, said Chalmers—who is associated with the International Crisis Group (ICG), a Brussels-based think tank..
We should not be surprised that the putative roadmap for democracy is also going astray. Holding elections amidst armed violence is always risky. Misjudged polls often serve to inflame conflicts rather than resolve them. The fact that the royal government chose not to consult its own peace secretariat on the potential dangers of the exercise is telling. For the palace, the polls seem to be part of a strategy of confrontation, not reconciliation. The king’s honorary aide-de-camp Bharat Keshar Simha, a retired general and president of the World Hindu Federation in Nepal, told Tehelka that elections will go ahead “irrespective of how many people die.” Some royalists would rather have a bloody showdown than risk losing face, wrote Chalmers.
Rhoderick Chalmers (Photo source : indianexpress.com)
Rhoderick Chalmers (Photo source : indianexpress.com)
The article further says: Nepal’s democrats are also hoping history will be replayed. As winter draws to a close the season of political agitation begins. It was in the spring of 1990 that the democracy movement gathered momentum. But the parties should not expect a simple repeat performance. Their own credibility has been tarnished by their poor record in office. And the king has made it clear he will not compromise in the face of popular protest as his brother did.
Chalmers—a visiting fellow at the Tribhuvan University– insists that Nepal’s conflict is still soluble. The party-Maoist agreement did not insist on republicanism; it deliberately left space for accommodation with the king.
“If King Gyanendra is willing to take a risk for peace he can recover respect for the monarchy by cancelling the flawed and misconceived elections and working towards the settlement Nepalis long for. Of course this will not be easy. But the easy options will lead only to continued bloodshed and political collapse,” he added.