Ashok K Mehta
How many zeroes does it take to make Girija Prasad Koirala smile? At least three – quipped a wag, as mandarins in the Ministry of External Affairs sweated in the Delhi heat to create an aid package that would meet the expectations of India’s neighbour and friend perched in its Himalayan splendour.
And smile Mr Koirala did; and a lot. There was much to smile about. The final economic package that Nepal got following Mr Koirala’s visit to New Delhi, exceeded their expectations. Direct budgetary assistance of Rs 1 billion, increase in Delhi’s annual budget outlays for Nepal from the present Rs 650 million to Rs 1.5 billion, soft loan assistance of US $ 100 million…
New Delhi announced it had decided to write off debts worth Rs 1.5 billion from Nepali Defence Ministry, which has been receiving military assistance from India since 1964. It also decided to defer the recovery of dues of about Rs 5 billion from Nepal Oil Corporation. According to Finance Minister Ram Sharan Mahat, the Indian side responded positively to Nepali demands that “unlimited seat quotas” be granted to Nepali airlines operating in various Nepal-India sectors. India also renewed its commitment to develop infrastructure projects like the 1,500-km Hulaki Highway in the Terai region, Budhi Gandaki hydroelectricity project, the East-West Railways and set up a Polytechnic School in the far West.
But it was not the battle of the budget that India won as it savoured its victory, it was the battle for the hearts of the Nepali people. Rather like the way India tried to impress George Bush (but left him amused instead), the visiting Nepalese Prime Minister was drowned in hospitality and attention. A cavalcade of 40 cars, exclaimed Finance Minister Ram Saran Mahat with awe. For us! This is the kind of reception George Bush got!
Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh broke with protocol to greet Mr Koirala at the airport and grasping him warmly by the hand, told the venerable 84-year old patriarch: “You are South Asia’s most towering leader. There is no one like you in the subcontinent…”
And this much is true. There is no one quite like Mr Koirala. Frail, carrying the remainder of broken ribs, a glancing blow on the head during the recent anti-King struggle and lungs that are lined with nicotine, he can be stubborn, doctrinaire and appear shortsighted. But a man who has been part of a struggle for 60 years must know his way around. That is why it is important to underline that Nepal has no leader of the stature of Mr Koirala.
This is both the solution and the problem. The programme of the Nepalese Prime Minister had to be spread out over three days to accommodate his age and his health. At 84, though he’s weak in body, Mr Koirala is intellectually more agile than men half his age. The only other parallel that comes to mind is JR Jayewardene, the complex and enigmatic President of Sri Lanka who coincidentally also at 84, managed to lead the 40-something Rajiv Gandhi to an impossibly sorry dance.
But where Jayewardene was calculating, Mr Koirala is direct and straight; where Jayewardene was seemingly flexible, Mr Koirala is seemingly rigid. What is common to both is a failing: Neither spent too much time grooming successors. Therefore, Mr Koirala has managed to create an edifice out of the debris of the trust deficit in Indo-Nepal relations. This is palpable now, while he’s still around. But what will happen to this once someone else replaces him is another issue altogether.
There are a lot of people in Nepal who are worried about precisely this. It was all businessmen would talk about – not just about who after Mr Koirala but also what after him. Would the Maoists take over? And what if they don’t believe in private property? But maybe when they came to power they would be more amenable to the idea? In other words, unless a second line of leadership is visible to investors’ naked eye, they will be niggardly with investment.
How vulnerable the Nepalese Prime Minister was clear last week when, in order to accommodate the demand of the Maoists for the immediate dissolution of the existing Parliament, the body was suspended till July when Nepal holds its budget session. Left to him, Mr Koirala would have used the time to put into place, some important reforms. But with the Maoists breathing down his neck, it is hard to implement agendas. The Maoists now want the constitution scrapped. Drafting an interim constitution is not an easy business. But that is what they demand.
What is worrying is the growing assertiveness of the Maoists, especially when it is not clear just whom do they represent. When political parties sought to revive the Village Development Councils (VDCs) they encountered so much resistance from militants groups that the idea was dropped. What is needed instead is a restructuring of institutions of State power to give representation to neglected communities. But the Maoists have a dream. They must have it and have it now!
Mercifully, the Maoists have broadly voiced their approval of Mr Koirala’s visit and India’s role. And after months of passivity, it is time for India to play the elder brother. A member of the Koirala delegation said that as India had helped draft the 12-point letter of understanding between the political parties and the Maoists, it needed to take this process further.
Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s own declared priorities concerning neighbouring countries were spelt out by Finance Minister P Chidambaram in his Budget speech: That India felt responsible for its neighbours and would work to develop their economy even to the detriment of India’s own. If it is agreeable to both sides, India should contribute to the Cease Fire Mechanism as well as the exercise of handing over arms by Maoists before the election.
After all, Gorkha Signallers in the Indian Army helped with Nepal’s first multiparty elections in 1960. Democracy and elections are something India knows and understands. Why not give Nepal a hand with it? By releasing Maoist prisoners in jail earlier this week, the Koirala Government has lost the only leverage it has with the Maoists. This is not wise as, after the smooth ride so far, the road ahead is likely to bumpy and tricky.
Mehata is a former senior official with the Indian Army. This article is reproduced here courtesy, Pioneer, a leading Indian daily newspaper.–Ed.
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