Surviving as an independent nation in equilibrium between two big powers of Asia , Nepal has been facing attempts by its neighbor to undo the hard geographical reality – which dictates terms and conditions for Nepal ’s destiny. Nepal –which is the only country in the modern world surviving in the equilibrium of two big powers- does not have facility to align with one or another neighbor. The recent joint letter sent by the government and the Maoists inviting the United Nations in arms management and for other observer roles show that efforts made by one power in the last twelve years through a proxy force to change the heard reality in its own security and strategic favor has not worked. Experiences have shown that a neighbor, howsoever powerful or big it may be and howsoever close geographical proximity it may have, also cannot change this hard reality of Nepal

By Keshab Poudel

After more than a month long debates and disputes, the government and the Maoists finally sent identical letters separately to the United Nations seeking its role in the area of arms management and in observer roles in holding of the elections for Constituent Assembly.

Nepal : Always a yam between tow boulders
Two weeks before sending letters to the UN, the cloud of uncertainty and possibility of breakdown in the fragile peace process had hovered in the Nepalese sky. Maoist leaders – who are now facing resistance from a Terai Liberation Front in southern plains – even issued statement threatening the government to withdraw from talks.

From civil society members to other political leaders, too, went to press prime minister Girija Prasad Koirala. Suddenly, but surprisingly, Maoists leaders, who threatened to break the peace talks, changed their tone and agreed to send a joint letter to the UN with the government just after twenty-four hours after the statement.

The result came not just because of seen games but many undercurrent incidents that took place before writing of the joint agreement. Just a day before the agreement for joint letter, Indian ambassador to Nepal Shiv Shanker Mukherjee and new British ambassador Andrew Hall met with Koirala. India – which has the highest security and strategic stakes in Nepal and who played a major role to prepare the 12-points agreement between Seven Party Alliance and Maoists in November 2005 – reportedly came to rescue the peace process this time also.

Tang Jiaxuan : Stressing on Nepal’s independence
When Nepal’s political forces and civil society members were taking credit for their role in bringing the government and Maoists together, India’s leading newspaper the Times of India – which has the record of toeing the line with Indian government in the foreign policy matters – reported how Indian involvement saved the negotiations from the virtual point of collapse.

According to The Himalayan Times, Indian foreign secretary Shyam Sharan in meeting with Nepalese finance minister Dr. Ram Sharan Mahat, who was in New Delhi to participate in the ninth BIMSTEC ministerial meeting, welcomed the latest political developments in Nepal and reiterated that India is ready to cooperate. According to Dr. Mahat, the talks focused on letters sent to the United Nations following the agreement between the government and the Maoists.

Upset by constant demands for laying down of their arms, the Maoists seem to be happy pressing the government to sign deal favoring their stand to keep the arms with them. “The agreement signed between the government and the Maoists has cleared the cloud of uncertainty,” said Maoist leader Prachanda to the media in Bhadrapur while returning from Silguri, an eastern Indian city of West Bengal state on Sunday.

At a time when various Indian intelligence agencies are blaming Nepalese Maoists for supplying arms to Indian Maoists and other Mafias, Maoist leader Prachanda and his colleagues traveled to Silguri, one of the most security sensitive and strategically important part called ‘chicken neck’ of India without any interruption.

UN’s Role

Initially, there were heated debates over whether to allow the UN in the arms management and monitoring the rebels. Finally, all parties agreed to give limited mandate to the UN in the conflict. Although the UN has very dismal performance in settling the violent conflicts in other parts of the world, Nepal does not have any other option other than rely on it.

Saran : Huge Stakes
“Earlier, the involvement of the UN was highly objected to deal with the conflict. Now it is useful by consensus to save the faces and prestige of dominant and defiant power. After the UN’s involvement, the phase of Maoist insurgency seems to be closer to an end but its pain will be there for ages to come in the families and communities of Nepal . Nepal has been passing through a great upheaval and its leverage is still in one place – which is beyond the apprehensions of average Nepalese,” said a political analyst.

“ Nepal is in a peculiar geographical setting in which it cannot choose one neighbor against other. That compulsion of geography is not there with any other South Asian country even to the extent of Afghanistan and Myanmar . These countries can align against one power or another but Nepal hangs between two gravitational centers. That fact has always been there and it has become more alive at present,” said a political analyst. “Occasionally, attempts are made to change this balanced position of Nepal but that has always been subsided after unpleasant conflicts and destructions. That attempt –which prolonged for more than a decade under the facade of a totalitarian ideology – was made this time also,” added the analyst.

After accepting the role of the UN, all those attempts have turned into a fiasco after causing many bitter and painful stories for the common people of Nepal . Many developmental infrastructures and grass root level institutions –which were built in the last five decades – have been destroyed. Concealed behind populist slogans, attempts have been made to create disharmony among various ethnic, regional and linguistic groups.

Despite the claim of Maoist insurgents not to return to jungle, many widows and orphans have heart-rending stories to tell. Already the family members of dead security personnel and of injured security personnel as well as the Maoist victims are demanding the due compensation by organizing demonstrations in the capital.

“My husband was killed by the Maoist and my property was confiscated. I want compensation for my property so that I can live with my two sons and a daughter in the village,” said Thuli Tamang, 38, displaced from Ramechhap. “The government and Maoists cannot ignore our demand,” said Tamang, who has been staging demonstration in front of Singha Durbar under the banner of Maoists Victim Association.

Maoists At End

After suffering a lot with thousands of cases of human tragedy, Nepal ’s current phases of violent insurgency seems to be on the last stage. “We will not return to the jungle anymore. We will bring about a republic legally by staying in the cities,” said Maoist leader Prachanda who still wants to retain weapons to guarantee the security of his cadres.

Even if Prachanda determines to go back, it may not be possible for him and his cadres to do so now as the pressure of international community, particularly the American and western countries, is such that they will not be receiving the logistic support they used to get from across the border till a few years back. Instead, the new indication coming through Terai Liberation Front is that Maoists will have difficult days ahead.

“The decade-long conflict has come to an abrupt change merely by international pressure rather than internal acumen for reconciliation and mutual adjustment. Terrorism, has all over the world, been used as a proxy war to achieve a result in which many innocent and idealist persons are trapped as fighters for proxy war have hardly any capacity to know. This has been done in Nepal also,” said the analyst. “After a stage, even they are disillusioned with a fanatical idea; they don’t get opportunity to salvage themselves. That is the problem in Nepal at present.”

Although ideological Maoist front has already been exposed, the new front of ethnic, linguistic, religion and regionalism is gradually opening which will be more dangerous and they can burst any time. The game of divide and rule still continues.

Of course, it is not going to benefit anybody but this game of religious, ethnic or geographical divide is not going to serve any interest of the power which is instigating to do so also.

Phase of Interdependence

Unlike in the past, the technology has increased the interdependence among nations. Only through close cooperation, nations can achieve their economic growth rate. The old and outdated security perception is gradually being replaced in the present-day world.

“It was a wrong thing to do with Nepal with an outdated outlook of strengthening the national security. The science and technology has forced the life of interdependence among nations,” said the analyst.

Following the opening of rail way to Tibet , the overall strategic position has changed now. “We in Nepal highly value the unprecedented geo-political importance of this new railway link. I firmly believe that this faster transport network will provide a unique opportunity to enhance our over two thousand year’s old Trans-Himalayan social, cultural and economic ties and bring our two countries closer than ever before,” said Madan Regmi, chairman of China Study Center . “Everlasting relations with China , we must be able to take care of Chinese sensitivities and should acknowledge their security concern. Our national interest is vital for us and we firmly believe that a China-friendly Nepal government alone can ensure Nepal ’s sovereignty, independence, territorial integrity and our national interest.”

China and India have been making efforts to come closer. The technological development has gradually increased interdependence among the nations. Although the initial response of India towards Railway to Lhasa was not much positive, all the powers have to adjust with this new technological reality.

“ China ’s strategy to develop its western regions and the launching of the Qinghai-Tibet railway imply that it is a long-term trend for China and South Asian countries to surmount various difficulties to expand economic cooperation through utilization of geographic advantages,” said Chinese Ambassador to Nepal Sun Heping. “The newly launched railway will help pave the way for trade between China and South Asian countries including Nepal to expand more conveniently by providing much easier access to the Chinese hinterland instead of a detour by marine route to get to China for trade and business.”

According to the analyst, both Indian and China have come to a point where contact and cooperation are more beneficial to them instead of maintaining a posture of hostility. There was no sense to destroy the stability of Nepal by proxy actions to gain some strategic advantage. This creates unnecessary misunderstanding and brings out multiplier threats.

Realization in Neighborhood

All recent events indicate that policy makers in south are realizing the disadvantage of violation in Nepal but it is appearing slowly and gradually into action. There was a limit of instigating one political force against another. Though that was done, now the main problem is that of managing crisis before it goes out of control.

Whatever political influence the southern neighbor has on political parties in Nepal , it must concentrate for order and stability. Nepal ’s stability and prosperity is vital for India ’s interest also.

In every field, Nepal has suffered much but it didn’t have leader like B.P. Koirala’s moral courage to tell the truth to the world and neighbors. Even his own brother G.P. Koirala – who is now heading the government – cannot speak his mind.

“I have been telling people that it is our patriotic duty to be very friendly with Peking . But, it must be clearly understood that there are greater compulsions for being friendlier with India than China . The friendliness of the Chinese must be reciprocated. India should not demand that we toe their line and adopt a hostile attitude towards China ” said B.P. Koirala, answering a question of Indian Journalist Bhola Chatterji. “What about your relations with China ? If Nepal cannot wish away India , neither can you wish away China ? (see Sunday Magazine July, 1979. “It must be clearly understood that I am for Nepal , but at the same time we shall have to maintain the friendliest, most cordial and intimate relations with India . One just cannot wish away with the fact of geography. With all respect to the patriotic sentiments of Nepali, we cannot afford to be anti-India; we cannot take up the cause of those countries which are anti-India. I am not a stooge of any body. I am not pro-India, or pro-China or pro-America. I am pro-Nepal,” he had stated.

“We have got marriage connections; social and cultural connections with India . Besides, there is the compulsion of geography. If there is a heavy rain in our catchments areas, it causes floods in India . So we are bound together and we have to sink or swim together,” said B.P. Koirala in his interview then.

BP Koirala : Architect of foreign policy?
As such, for the moment the Maoists have already agreed to live in confined areas, and this would help ease the psychological fear.

“The news in The Times of India is quite revealing though it was too late for New Delhi to realize the need of peace and stability in Nepal , it carries enough of hope that it will no more allow the proxy war being continued in Nepal ,” said the analyst. “A peculiar scenario, contrary to these beliefs, has also been occurring sporadically in the southern region of Nepal in name of Terai Liberation Front as it has been attacking Maoists cadres from Terai.”

Although the front has high-sounding violent utterances against the settlers from hills, its immediate target appears to be Maoists. The way southern part of country is being unsafe for Maoists, this gives the message that in future the interior hills of Nepal may also not remain safe to them.

“The way the Maoists were created with a dreadful posture, the same way they are going to disappear. After all these tragic experiments, the southern neighbor must have learnt some lessons in Nepal . It is neither the strength of Nepalese army nor the patriotic resistance of Nepal that southern neighbor restrained itself from atrocious and excessive use of proxy force. It was the geographical advantage of Nepal that any executive action or encroachment in Nepal invites retaliation in different places and in different manners. But mainly keeping its strategic interest in Nepal , whenever both the neighbors were helpful for stability in Nepal , they were not threatening one against other. The past history of Nepal has sufficient lessons for that,” said the analyst.

Chinese Concern

Recently, Chinese scholars, politicians and officials have been officially and privately expressing their opinions regarding the importance of independent Nepal for the security of China . “ Nepal ’s independence is prerequisite for China ’s security. Nepal living under the Indian security umbrella is a constant threat to Chinese security,” writes professor Wang in his book Nepal ’s National Defense Strategy and Nepal-China Relations published in 2005.

In his visit to Nepal in March, Tang Jiaxuan State Councilor of the People’s Republic of China outlined the Chinese policy towards Nepal . “The Chinese government and people firmly pursue the principle of non-interference in the internal affairs of other countries, have never interfered with the internal affairs of Nepal and highly respect the mode of development chosen by the Nepalese people. We consistently support Nepal ’s effort to safeguard sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity. Nepal is a sovereign country, and its internal affairs shall not be interfered with any way by any outside forces,” said Tang. “We believe that the Nepalese government and people have the political wisdom and capabilities to solve their own problems.”

In his recent visit to Nepal, Chinese vice minister Wu Dawei also expressed China’s security concern in Nepal reiterating China’s stand that Nepalese can settle their problems on their own.

Recently, a f ive-member delegation led by Iping of China Association of International Understanding, an NGO associated with the Chinese communist party traveled to Nepal and discussed with various political leaders and government officials regarding ongoing peace process in Nepal . “We came here to know about the ongoing peace process and developments of Nepal ,” said Iping after meeting deputy prime minister and minister of foreign affairs K.P. Sharma Oli who is shortly paying an official visit to the People’s Republic of China .

Throughout centuries, Nepal has survived as a nation because the country stands in equilibrium of powers. Even during the empirical power, Britain always followed a wise opinion of Hastings ’s advisor’s advice not to undo Nepal ’s independent status.

“Later during the Gurkha War of 1814-16, considerable thought was given to the actual annexation of Nepal but practical considerations and advice of Lord Hastings’ adviser on Himalayan affairs Dr. Buchanan-Hamilton, militated against such policy. He noted that “ a frontier of seven or eight hundred miles between two powerful nations holding each other in mutual contempt seems to point at anything but peace,” writes A. Lamb in his book Britain and Chinese Central Asia: The Road to Lhasa 1767 to 1905. “Indian Empire, particularly during the time of the Curzon administration, and Imperial and Republican China, on the other, was to bear out Buchanan-Hamilton’s view over and over again.”

Long after, Indian scholar Ramakant had said similar thing but some short sighted illogical strategists occasionally were reminded about the hard realities Nepal . “The lesson remains the same. Some people from this country or that country will suffer and Nepalese will suffer more due to being in conflict area. But, its status as an impendent country cannot be abandoned.”

American scholar Leo Rose in his book Nepal Strategy for Survival said, “because of Nepal ’s preoccupation with mere survival, its foreign policy inevitably has a psychological orientation different from that of larger states, including India and China , whose physical attributes are in them a fairly reliable guarantee of security.”

Now what is left as a tragic task is rehabilitation of displaced persons and destitute and to rebuild the infrastructure of health, education, local governance and administrative organs. Decades of investment has been destroyed in a moment. Now the number one task before the international community is to support Nepal to rebuild the country in a large scale and for its neighbors not to disturb the hard reality of Nepal .

Whether someone vandalizes the statue of King Prithivi Narayan Shaha, the great –which was vandalized by some well-instructed miscreants in front of central secretariat Singha Durbar recently – or not, no body can change what he prescribed as Nepal ’s position “a root between two boulders.” No power can change Nepal ’s hard reality observed by him over two centuries ago. Every one has his limits in Nepal .

Courtesy: Spotlight

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