The priority should be peace process, not the polls that are boycotted by political parties
By Dr. Som P Pudasaini
King Gyanendra on the completion of one year of his takeover on 1 February 2006 claimed that security and people’s confidence improved and international “prestige and credibility” was restored. He promised peace and prosperity within one year and to reenergize democracy through elections at all levels by April 2007. He termed the continuing Maoists violence as “petty crimes” and advised them to enter the mainstream through ballots. Then on the Democracy Day message he called on all “willing” political parties for a dialogue and granted audiences to three dozen politicians and public not too opposed to his February takeover. The mainstream political parties rejected the call for dialogue terming it meaningless. International community continues to be concerned with the crisis and absence of concrete steps towards negotiated settlement. Can one hope for peace, prosperity and restoration of democracy in the coming year?
The Maoists, who still call shots in most of the rural areas, have attacked several urban centers, including Tansen and Ilam, in the past several weeks and destroyed life and properties of many people, including security forces. Many of their cadres have also been killed and wounded in the process. Bandhs and blockades, reported to cost one billion rupees a day, are on the rise and disrupting normal life. The cumulative death toll of over 13,000 is rising unabated. In spite of some military successes, people across the country are terrorized and feel unsafe in view of the increasing action of the Maoists and the security forces.
Political parties, civil society, media and professional organizations are continually agitating. The agitation has now broad support but is yet to develop a full steam. Human rights violations have unacceptably risen. The Maoists and the seven-party alliance have signed a 12-point understanding to fight against the “autocratic monarchy” and resolve the prevalent crisis of security, peace and politics through a constituent assembly election. The alliance is not happy with the implementation of the understanding by the Maoists and they do not seem fully comfortable with them yet.
The municipal elections concluded on 8 February 2006 with no participation of recognized political parties and marred by curfews and arrests of political and civil society leader was termed “hollow” by the international community and a “complete farce” by political parties. Almost fifty percent of the seats were left uncontested. Most of those elected are without proper experiences and qualifications to be suitable for the challenging tasks in the municipalities. Only about 21 percent of vote was cast. While the government claimed that the elections were successful and held without “booth capturing and manipulation,” it was largely seen as a waste of resources and a bad omen to the usefulness of elections proposed for 2007 under the royal proclamation.
The king’s February roadmap is unlikely to ensure peace, democracy and economic wellbeing in the coming year without peace and reconciliation with the political parties.
On 13 February 2006, the Supreme Court scrapped the Royal Commission for Corruption Control (RCCC) and declared all its actions null and void. The landmark judgment also clarified that the king neither has the “authority to assume sovereignty vested on the people” nor the “right to exercise unlimited powers going against the constitution”. Additionally, the article 127 can be used only to remove difficulty in implementing the constitution not to “curtail citizen’s rights guaranteed by the constitution.” It was a clear guidance that the king must give up direct rule and reconcile with the people’s representatives to resolve the conflict and restore democracy.
The economy is not doing well at all. It is growing at a meager 2.3 percent rate per annum compared to over 6 percent envisaged under the Tenth Plan and 7 and 10 percent achieved by our neighbors, China and India . Tourist arrival has dipped by 45 percent between 1999 and 2005 from almost 500,000 to less than 290,000. Both business and pleasure is affected by power “load shedding” of 35 hours a week and will affect more in the coming weeks. Revenue mobilization is poor. Donors are reducing their support. Development work is almost standstill. Security expenses are accelerating.
The international community supports restoration of democracy and resolution of conflict through negotiations. It has expressed its displeasure with the royal take over, including by reducing financial support and by stopping supply of lethal weapons.
India supports constitutional monarchy and multiparty democracy. It wants the king to talk to the mainstream political parties and negotiate with the Maoists. President George W. Bush in New Delhi on 2 March said that India and the US “agreed that the Maoists should abandon violence and that the king should reach out to the political parties to restore democratic institutions”. US Ambassador James F Moriarty on 15 February declared that the authoritarian rule by the king has been “unsuccessful” as it has “emboldened” the Maoist insurgents and widened the division between “the parties and the king”. He advised reconciliation between the king and the political parties. The Ambassador’s antagonism against the 12-point understanding and suggestion to isolate the Maoists has been controversial.
China has begun to encourage reconciliation. Japan has now expressed its concern with the state of affairs, including with the illegal arrests and detentions of leaders. The European Union has been pleading for restoration of democracy by the king and renunciation of violence by the Maoists.
The king’s February roadmap is unlikely to ensure peace, democracy and economic wellbeing in the coming year without peace and reconciliation with the political parties. No lasting peace is possible without dealing with the Maoists. There is no military solution to the insurgency. After one year of royal rule and ten years of insurgency, as the International Crisis Group (ICG) suggests, the priority should be “peace process, not polls” that are boycotted by political parties or a general election “planned by a coterie of hard-line royalists.”
(Dr. Pudasaini has served as Representative of the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) in Sri Lanka and Yemen and as country director for Maldives. Please send your comments to [email protected] or [email protected])
(Editor’s Note: Nepalis, wherever they live, as well as friends of Nepal around the globe are requested to contribute their views/opinions/recollections etc. on issues concerning present day Nepal to the Guest Column of Nepalnews. Length of the article should not be more than 1,000 words and may be edited for the purpose of clarity and space. Relevant photos as well as photo of the author may also be sent along with the article. Please send your write-ups to [email protected])