Maoists serve a four-day ultimatum: Accept conditions well within Thursday or face consequences

July 30, 2003
7 MIN READ
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Kathmandu: Tighten your belts. Things have apparently become upside down. The war of letters in between the “Old regime” and the “New regime” has already taken a new and unprecedented frightening height. The last letter presumably from the side of the Old regime will probably sent to the managers of the New regime in a day or two or event at the earliest.

The fate of the nation certainly depends now on how the Old regime seduces the New regime through its response to the letter recently sent to it by the latter. The country is left with only two options: embrace a civil war or go in for permanent peace.

Fortunately enough, both the parties almost on the verge of war have exhibited their longing for peace but have said it in their own suitable and convincing manner.

Those who have read the content of the last letter sent in the name of the government by the Maoist quarter do not take much time in concluding that the men in the New Regime want peace or will contribute to peace restoration albeit only on their dictates.

The Maoists clearly wish to press the government side very hard so that the former yields to their demands and not surprisingly therefore they have allowed the government only four days to respond. The letter is almost in the form of an ultimatum which must have puzzled the brains of the men now handling the affairs in Singh Durbar.

The deadline of the ultimatum expires on Thursday-that is tomorrow. Failing to respond to the Maoists conditions and that too positively by Thursday would mean, the Maoists letter asserts, the unilateral breaking of the ceasefire agreement reached in between the two warring sides some six months ago.

“We will not be held responsible for the consequences arising thereafter”, maintains the letter which is no less weighty and powerful than a bomb itself.

What went wrong? Who played the villain? Which force(s) on earth brainwashed the friendliest insurgent leaders in the meantime? Will the talks resume given the harsh conditions put for by the rebels? Will the government accept the demands or for that matter the conditions in toto put forth by the Maoists and work for the restoration of permanent peace in the country? How the political parties other than the Maoists will react if the government accepts the demands of the Maoists? And finally, how the international community that is generally anticommunist will react to the Maoists recent political overture? Will it allow the peace process to continue the Maoists way?

These were some of the pertinent questions that have been boggling the minds of the informed intellectuals and apparently the international community based in Kathmandu as well.

Be that as it may, our analysts have concluded the following upon going thoroughly the content of the letter sent to the government which fortunately we too have in our email box.

The conclusions, in short, are as follows:

Firstly, the Maoists have tentatively concluded that it is the Royal Nepal Army that is impeding the talks. They have also said that what is the guarantee that the RNA would comply to the agreements reached in between the two regimes even if they resume the talks. The insurgency believes that the RNA in the meantime has equipped itself with the necessary arms and ammunitions to cope with any eventualities should the talks fail. Implied is that the government allowed the RNA to enrich itself with arms while they were not allowed to do the same. The gist is that the Maoists consider the RNA as their number one enemy.

Secondly, the Maoists have concluded that the RNA is being trained, armed and advised by the United States. The letter maintains that the government committed a Himalayan blunder by signing an agreement with the US on containing the threats of terrorism. The insurgency believes that the US engagement in Nepal, real or imagery, and its hob-nobbing with the RNA is solely aimed at curbing the insurgency and nothing more than that and hence they seek an immediate withdrawal of the US men from the Nepali territory. The leaders of the insurgency conclude that the US is their number two enemy. However, the letter does not speak of other “powers” which have all along been meddling in the Nepali internal affairs. Theirs singling out of the United States is loaded with meaning in the sense that some countries in the South Asian region do not wish to see the presence of any powerful country in Nepal on any pretext. Their anger with the United States is only but natural for it is the US which has put the Maoists insurgency in its list of the terrorists of the second category. It is this listing of their insurgency that must have irritated the insurgency leaders.

Sources close to Maoists say the insurgency presumes that the RNA is slipping in to the hands of the United States which neither India nor China will accept. But is that possible? After all the RNA is a traditional Nepali army that has a track record of sticking to nation, national interests and the preservation of national sovereignty.

Thirdly, their ire mixed with love is for the Nepali monarch. The ire is in the form that they conclude that it is the King who wields real powers and that the government led by S.B.Thapa is simply a dummy and hence can’t legitimise the agreements reached after the conclusion of the talks. The insurgents wish that the King make a proclamation and assuring the nation that whatever Thapa government decides at the table will be binding on him as well. The agitating parties, coincidentally, too have been talking on the same line. However, the leaders of the insurgency appear more than eager to see the King in person and to have a tete-e-tete. Their desire to see the King could have two meaning: firstly, they wish to talks straight to the King and push their demands and wish to know the King’s mind on their proposals; secondly, they wish to do so because whatever they have been demanding with the Thapa government is a political thing that is directly related with the curtailment of the King’s present powers and hence they probably wish to see the personality who is being affected by their demands. Implied is message that if they meet the King, much could be sorted out. But how the King reacts to this is yet uncertain. The King has been told to go in for a health check-up. Is it that the Maoists have planned to see the King while he is abroad? A guess work only.

Some cynics conclude that the Maoists wish an active monarch for, according to them, a constitutional monarch if attends the talks or meets the rebellions would mean that he too wishes to become active. The fact is that the letter is very tough having harsh conditions which presumably the government can’t address on its own.

Fourthly, the insurgency would like very much to study the political agenda of the government prior to the resumption of the third round of talks. In saying so, the Maoists apparently wish to feel the pulse beat of the government on their own political agenda. This is very obvious.

Nevertheless, a ray of hope is there. The Maoists haven’t stated that they will not sit for the talks. They will sit for the talks provided the government acted their way.

The situation is grave. Dark clouds have started hovering over Nepali sky. All that the national population would say is “wisdom must prevail on both sides”.

Let’s wait how the government responds to their ultimatum that will expire this Thursday.