Kathmandu: With the change in government in Singh Durbar, definitely the government-Maoist talks got a brake.
However, both the sides concerned have so far not ventilated their feeling going against the resumption of the now stalled talks with each other.
In the mean time, the government under Thapa has already provided two good names who will be the in charge for the talks. It has also been reported that some members of the previous team will be told to continue their duties as usual.
The Maoists, however, appear harassed with the sudden change in the leadership in Singh Durbar and opine that the political events that were taking place in the country at the center were all to sabotage the talks.
The Maoists, in the process, do not hesitate in blaming the external forces to have been engineering ploys to damage the prospects of the talks with the government. The government denies any role of the external forces and is determined to go in for talks with the Maoists but only after carefully analyzing the agreements thus far agreed in between the two parties.
Clearly speaking, the government under Thapa is politically disturbed by the agreement reached by the government of his predecessor on limiting the mobilisation of the army to a periphery of five-kilometer range which meant that beyond that periphery, the men from the People’s army will rule the roost.
This agreement invited scathing criticisms from all and sundry. In the process, the men in the previous team tried to convince the public that no such agreement had been arrived at in between the government and the Maoists. The Maoists say with full force that such an agreement had been reached and that the agreement should be a binding one.
The two way allegations and counter allegations does hint that some thing very special could have been agreed in between the two but when criticisms started pouring in against the government, the latter tried to cover up its blunders committed at time of the negotiation in the second round of talks.
Dr. Bhattarai, an acclaimed ideologue of the insurgency, has time and again said that the government is trying to sabotage the prospects of peace by going against the already reached agreements. He and his colleagues send warning signals to the other camp by saying that if the agreements were not complied with would mean that they will have to think of yet another devastating war against the old-regime.
The government is listening to their threat loaded statements and making no retaliatory remarks for it believes that the Maoists will in all probability not enter the “jungles” for obvious and understandable reasons.
The Maoists perhaps know that the government understands their internal weaknesses. The fact is that the Maoists will prefer not to go to the jungles for they know that the international wind is blowing against them. Add to this the BJP government toeing the American line which is against terrorism. This means that the BJP led government in India will not provide them shelter for fear of inviting the US wrath.
The Maoists also remain abreast of the fact that the US and the British government have vowed that they will support Nepal ad infinitum in order to contain the threat of the resurgence of terrorism in Nepal.
A quick look at Sir Jefferey James’ statement made on 12 June amply reflects that the United Kingdom will continue its support to Nepal in this regard. According to Sir Jeffery James: ” Britain is committed to training and other non-lethal assistance to enable the security forces to counter any resumption of hostilities, in compliance with international standards”. This amply means that while the UK side welcomes the ceasefire arrangement in between the government and the Maoists, it also appears prepared to support the Nepali establishment should the peace talks fail and the Maoists resume their hostilities.
The ground reality is that the government is receiving or will be receiving arms and weapons from friendly countries to maintain the security system in the country intact, the Maoists perhaps been denied of this opportunity for obvious political reasons. The fact is that the RNA is guarding the borders carefully which is sure to cut the supply of the arms to the Maoists. If this is the case then what is for sure is that the Maoists are already short of arms and can’t meet the challenges posed to it by the other side should the talks fail and they forced to go to the jungles.
Let’s talk positive now.
Thanks that the Maoists have not so far declared that they will refrain from the talks. Most of the leaders from the camp of the insurgency have come up with the statements that they will resume the talks. This is no less a matter of consolation to the peace loving Nepali population.
Analysts hope that the government with all sincerity resumes the talks and vice versa.
But how the government will settle the issue related to the People’s militia of the Maoists? How these military men will be assimilated in the existing security system of the country? What would happen if the RNA and the government together can’t find a fitting solution to the issues of the people’s militia? How the militia men react to their own leaders if the latter fail to address their issues?
Analysts say that this issue might be a major problem that will confront the both parties at time of the third round of talks.