Maoist rebels being cornered?

April 30, 2003
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Kathmandu: The Maoists are being cornered from all possible sides, it appears.

To begin with, India still appears the Nepali rebels as terrorists. This was the implied message ventilated by the visiting COAS of India Shri Viz. His statements made in an indirect fashion aiming at the Nepali Maosits must have annoyed the rebels who have just entered into the talks with the government.

The next hint came in the form of an agreement signed recently in between the United States and Nepal government which allows further cooperation between the two contracting parties in the fight against terrorism. Analysts maintain that this agreement will put more pressure on the Maoists so that the latter arrived at a compromise with the Nepali establishment and joined the nation’s mainstream politics. In other words, the agreement thus signed in between the United States and the Nepal government will put an indirect pressure on the Maoists to settle their issues “amicably” as soon as possible.

The intent could just be otherwise but the timing of the signing of the said agreement is not in favor of the maoists.

The third major indication came from the Royal Nepali Army which point blank stated that whatever happens during the talks but the talks should concentrate in making it sure that the Maoists deposited the arms and the ammunitions they captured from the states’ security organs in the past.

This means that the Nepali army would wish the talks to continue but would concurrently prefer the return of the weapons looted by the rebels in the past.

The RNA has also made it abundantly clear to the Maoists that the “assimilation” the their “people’s army” or the “Red army” into the establishment’s regular and traditional security organ would simply be impossible. The RNA also makes it clear that entering into the RNA were guided by certain established rules and procedures.

This means that the Maoists who have been hoping that they will manage the easy entry of their warriors into the mainstream RNA will have to devise some other schemes to accomplish this job.

Since the statement has come from the RNA, it is expected that the government team at the talks can’t bypass the RNA’s subtle message. It is here that a sort of clash in between the two sides can’t be overruled during the second round of talks.

Fourth problem could arise hopefully again from Indian establishment. This is because the 24 point condensed political agenda released in the presence of the media men after the conclusion of the first round of talks with the government this Sunday, Dr. Babu Ram Bhattarai says that his party would wish the reviewal of the 1950 treaty and that his camp would wish the introduction of a work-permit system for the foreigners. Dr. Bhattarai also states that Nepal-India open border is regulated henceforth.

Those who know India better say that India would never allow these two things to happen come what may for varied understandable reasons.

To recall, as and when Nepal and its leaders have voiced their concern over the 1950 treaty; introduction of work permit system and regulation of the open borders, she has retaliated in different forms.

How India reacts to Dr. Bhattarai’s pinching agenda is any body’s guess. Expectedly, if Bhattarai is sincere to his demands stated above would surely invite wrath from the concerned country.

But, to recall, the Indian establishment has time and again reiterated that she was ready to listen to Nepali grievances regarding the latter’s wish for a timely reviewal of the 1950 treaty.

All put together, the “new regime” of the Maoists will have rough and tough time in securing greater concessions from the “old regime”.