Maoist’ harsh conditions come as a bolt from the blue

July 30, 2003
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Kathmandu: The fresh Maoists response to the government made public Monday afternoon has created ripples in the political circle. Presumably, the response from the Maoists side must have jolted the government and the mainstream political parties as well.

The fact is that the Maoists letter released Monday demands full guarantees from the King, the Army and the establishment now led by Thapa.

Undeniably, some of the conditions put forth by the Maoists are not only difficult to comply with but could have its impact felt in the mainstream political parties if the demands were met with by the government prior to the resumption of the much awaited third round of talks.

The fact is that the political parties now in agitation whom the Maoists prefer to call as “status quoists” too appear reluctant in accepting some of the harsh conditions put by the Maoists given the strategic balance existing in between the three forces e.g. the Palace, the political parties and the Maoists. In their opinion, if the government accepts the conditions of the Maoists in toto, the delicate power balance will have shattered whose ultimate political benefit will go to the bags of the Maoists.

The political parties also appear scared of the Maoist designs, if any, for the insurgency has recently predicted that if the agenda and directionless agitation of the five parties continue for long might bring about a split in the agitation making half to support the regression and the rest toeing their cause of the forward looking movement.

This prediction in effect has stirred the leaders handling the agitation. Their suspicion grows more when they see that the agitation is becoming more and more weaker by every passing days to the extent that the leaders have devised a new face saving formulae: to halt the agitation till the monsoon is over. This means that the agitation will remain in media headlines for full three weeks henceforth.

The gist is that the political parties internally have concluded that they can’t linger the agitation for good. They have concluded that the people this time around have not supported them and will perhaps continue to do so unless the leaders in the agitation repented for their past Himalayan blunders. The other reason could be that they felt that if the agitation continued then the chunk of the political benefit might go to the bags of the Maoists who of late have applied a new pressure tactic to force the State to yield to their dictates. Matured leaders in the agitation also apparently have hinted their leaders that it was time not to sit in the opposition to the king but instead a time to shun the differences with the King and strengthen the hands of the establishment.

Good or bad, the mainstream political parties prefer the constitution be changed that addresses the issues raised by the Maoists. This means that they would prefer to go with this constitution. The Maoists reject their preference and wish the drafting of an entirely new constitution that goes their way. The tussle lies here.

The mainstream political parties apparently have also felt that the Maoists recent strong posture could have been the result of their growing differences with the King, which the Maoists wish to cash to the hilt.

Be that as it may, while the political parties wish the King to yield to their demand but would not prefer a King yielding totally to the demands and the conditions pushed for the talks by the Maoists in the recent days. However, the fact is also that the Maoists have appealed separately the leaders of the UML and the Congress to be of some support to their cause in the context of the fresh letter. This means that the Maoists if seduced could forge a front against the King whose corollary would be that the existing power balance will go in favor of the political parties and the Maoists.

But then the political parties appear puzzled over the Maoists keen desire to see the King in person. This stance makes them to suspect the very motives of the Maoists for the parties feel that if the Maoists and the King came closer would mean yet again the change in the existing power balance.

This means that each force of the three would wish the one among the remaining two to come closer and change the strategic balance.

In the process, the Maoists have already forwarded their wish that they would remain ever obliged if the political parties supported their cause. If this happens would mean exerting of an extra pressure on the monarchy and his government in order to extract greater concessions. Nevertheless, the ground reality is that the political parties can’t exceed their political limits and join heads with the insurgents. Their quarrel is with the King but not with the monarchy. This is what Koirala has been saying. At best the political parties could remain friendly with the insurgents till the monarch yielded to their own political demands.

The conclusion: the existing power balance has got to be maintained. Any slightest change in this delicate power balance would push the country to an abyss. A tripartite compromise is a must. No other option is left. The King is also suggested to act fast before it is too late.