Kathmandu: By all accounts the Maoists are here. The burning of the vehicles in two private schools in Kathmandu and the absence of the police who were forewarned of the action only shows the virtual paralysis of the law and order machine in Kathmandu valley itself. Talks with the Maoists student movement have only naturally broken down and so the private schools have closed for a week. Occasional corner meets of the Maoists in the Capital are designed to display the presence. It is this gaining strength in the urban areas of the insurgents that must be watched.
The established political parties have their own reactions. The congress insists that their integrated development approach is the sole panacea. They have claimed success in mobilizing the Army for the approach. The Army has moved no doubt. But the insistence is that the movement is not counter-insurgency one. Any attempt at a counter-insurgency role for the Army must be backed by “national consensus”‘.
The UML has been caught on the wrong foot. They do not agree with the integrated development actions. They have come public on their stance that they will not allow the forthcoming budget session of parliament to resume business until Prime Minister resigns. The Prime Minister is not resigning. UML street actions in Kathmandu are drawing “less crowds”. Most Left parties are threatened by the Maoists attraction of their cadre. Regardless of the fact that the UML anti-government campaign now leads the minor Left outside the ML, the waning strength of the country’s largest opposition on the street may provoke a change in strategy. One indication is that a UML “intellectual”‘ gathering was critical of the party’s stance in the winter session of parliament. The other signal comes with the UML recognition that the Maoists are the “fourth force”‘ in the country.
The RPP, evidently cashing in on UML setbacks has launched its own programs for a “national consensus”. Although both congress and the UML appear non-takers, this is unlikely to prevent a change in the party strategy. There is already talk of the RPP sitting in parliament this budget session. Understandably perhaps there are talks of the possibility of the Prime Minister rewarding the RPP with seats in a government that could be formed on grounds of the “national consensus” that is now a near common plea.
A ‘Girija babu-Surya babu-Gajju babu’ alignment is no longer an impossibility, observers say. Much will then thus depend on the role of Girija babu rivals in the congress in parliament. If the Maoists can openly host Daman Dhungana in the Butwal congregation last week, the distance between the Girija lobby and the Maoists is further accentuated by the congress rivals.
If the Maoists problem is the government’s principal problem, the congress differences become more pressing agenda for the Prime Minister. RPP and Sadhbhavana numbers alone will not suffice to prop Girija babu in power. And so the role of both the UML and the disgruntled congress in parliament becomes key for the success of the business session of the parliament. The PM is assuming an increasingly belligerent role regarding the opposition in his party and his detractors are hardly budging in. It is this stalemate again that must be watched.
At another level, the general consensus now is that both the congress and UML who together refuse to acknowledge it publicly are totally incapable of handling the current crisis. If the RPP now publicly demands along with the ML a role for the monarchy in solving this situation, the congress and the UML workers in private now often voice this viewpoint. The UML for one has not ceased its demand for a constitutional reform. However, they fall short of inviting a role for the monarchy in bringing about this change publicly. As yet the constitutional process will remain incomplete until the privately voiced opinions of the two largest parties in parliament regarding the King’s role surface publicly in line with the general perception that the monopoly political organizations are no longer equipped to handle the mounting crisis on their own.