Kathmandu: Clearly Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba is all set get the elections announced soon.
One can call this as his adventure or even mis-adventure.
In effect it is both.
It is an adventure in the sense that despite the adverse and even chaotic conditions prevailing at the moment in the country, it is Deuba who is prepared to throw the country to the polls.
It is his sheer mis-adventure and a sort of folly that he is prepared to get the dates for the elections declared when he is well aware of the hard reality that a host of political parties, in the streets and in his cabinet, appear reluctant to embrace the polls.
Add to this the Maoists threat loaded statements served to Sher Bahadur Deuba January 13 which stated that the rebels would very much create disasters if the polls were declared. The Maoists’ declaration should be taken seriously for their expressions go against the happening of the polls which means that if the polls were declared they would do all possible to make it null and void.
This means, the parties in the streets, a set of political parties housed in the cabinet too appear hesitant in joining the poll fray.
The UML that speaks double more often than not is under hard pressure from its cadres which has suggested its high command even to quit the government and wage a sort of movement to garner support for drafting a new constitution altogether. This means that the UML would think twice before providing its nod in favor of the polls if declared by Deuba.
The student wing of the UML the other day challenged its central leadership stating that “it should not be the dictates of a few landlords seated at the high command of the party to determine as to what the party should do and what not”.
This strong statement in a way is directed towards the UML leader, Madhav Nepal, whom the parry cadres allege that he is a man who could yield to any one and could even sacrifice the party’s objectives and prime interests if he were allowed to share the booty in the establishment.
Its corollary would be that the UML’s lower rung cadres consider Madhav Nepal as the man who has brought about a slide in the popularity and the very prestige of the party in the recent months.
Gone are the hegemonic days of Madhav Nepal, it appears.
The RPP led by Pasupati Rana too is in a fix. Logically, he can’t say no to the elections. However, the fact is that the party at the moment is a divided lot and hence any decision to jump to embrace the elections might damage winning prospects.
Talking of the NSP under minister Badri Mandal, what could be better said of this party is that save a few prominent leaders of this party, the rest were less influential in their own constituencies. Add to this the other faction of the NSP which is in the streets too could damage the prospects of the previous NSP if polls are declared.
To add insult to injury, even Deuba’s own intimate colleagues in the NC-D party appear more than reluctant in accepting the challenge of the polls, which their own leader is to announce soon.
The party is divided on this count.
The sum total of this scenario is that Deuba can declare the elections but he can’t assure even his own men in the party of emerging victorious.
It is this divided attitude that some NC-D men appear more interested in the restoration of the parliament as demanded by Girija Prasad Koirala and his men in the streets.
The parties mostly residing in the Ratnapark Island have more or less hinted that they would boycott the polls. If the street agitators do what they have declared would mean lesser participation in the polls which would allow the agitators to dub the election results as a rigged one.
Now the question arises: whether the country should go to the polls or not? The second question is should the country go to the hustings without taking the parties in the streets and the Maoists into confidence? The third question is whether the King is interested in the polls or not at this critical juncture? And finally what the men belonging to the international communities say of elections in Nepal?
The first question could be a matter of serious debate. But then yet as a democratic country, neither Nepal as a nation-state say no to the elections nor those political parties in the streets.
Elections are a must provided a friendly atmosphere persisted. The second question more or less is related to the security matters. All that the parties in the streets are saying that until and unless security situation comes under control by convincing the Maoists, the elections should be shifted sine die. The parties in the streets have not said that they will reject the elections altogether. They demand security system to improve which is only possible when the Maoists sit in talks with the government. The Maoists have time and again stated that they will not talk with Deuba government.
As regards the King’s inner intentions, analysts say that the monarch is bound by his own commitments for a democratic system and more over while appointing Deuba as Prime Minister he is on record to have instructed Deuba to go in for the polls. This means that the King is out and out in favor of the polls.
Presuming that the King favored the polls would give some hidden messages, which appear positive ones. For example, if the King really favored polls means that he is ready to handover the power to an elected parliament, which is what the parties in the streets have, been demanding.
Secondly, this also means that the King is less interested in giving continuity to his present role that more often than not brings him into political controversies here and there. Instead he would prefer a government of the people through elections who could steer the nation much the same way prior to October 4, 2002.
Conversely, had the King nurtured intentions to linger the polls, he could have done so easily. But Deuba’s hurry to go in for the polls also indicates that the King will summarily dismiss him if he failed in holding the elections on time. Deuba rush to go to the polls appears more guided by a sense of fear psychosis of being sacked by the King than by bringing in the derailed constitutional processes in its original track.
Analysts say that if the street agitators suspect the very credentials of the monarch that with an election not participated in by major political actors, the King would manage or would prefer to bring in parliamentarians who would toe his line later, the best idea that could be furnished to those who suspect the King’s motive would be to accept the challenge of the polls and damage King’s inner desires if any.
Deuba knows well the Maoists will every thing to disturb the polls. He also knows that the commander of the street agitation, Koirala, would prefer his ouster prior to going to the polls. He also knows that Madhav Nepal would very much want Deuba being sacked and replace him.
Now talking of the international community whether they prefer elections or not, well what could be said of them is that they being democratic nations would perhaps not reject the idea of going to the polls. Concurrently they would wish the Maoists to be brought to the talks.
Deuba’s assertion that he has already read the minds of the international community should be taken in this light. Deuba said that his foreign friends have not objected to his idea of going to the polls.
Should this mean that Deuba enjoys international support in his adventure or mis-adventure?
How Deuba manages the polls will have to be watched.