Kathmandu: There are two camps in the Nepali congress and the one is that is being led by former Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba is gaining. So much may be gleaned from the last Battle Royale in the congress parliamentary party where the no confidence motion against Prime Minister Girija Prasad Koirala was diffused by a walkover from the Deuba camp on the issue of the ruling Girija congress not acknowledging Deuba demands for secret balloting on the motion. From 36 in the last parliament, the Deuba numbers had increased to 56 in order to table the motion and the open balloting precipitated vacillation from a handful of voters. So much is real. That a sitting Prime Minister with the clout of the government and party machinery has not been able to prevent such desertions and vacillations bodes ill for Girija babu.
How this is to reflect on the all too important Pokhara convention at the moment remains unclear. What comes out from the highly conciliatory messages from both the sides of democratic practice is that no party within the two camps in the congress is willing to precipitate a permanent fissure in the congress. So much is obvious. However, Prime Minister Girija Prasad Koirala is unlikely to give up his stranglehold over the government and party machinery since it is both that keep him where he is, at the helm of affairs.
Neither is Sher Bahadur Deuba likely to leave his demands for a Girija resignation from either of the two positions, since it is this demand that is registering his gains. The Pokhara convention will legitimize Girija babu’s claim over the party, and hence his government. What is to be of the Deuba opposition?
By most accounts Deuba’s no confidence motion in pre-empted a UML led no confidence motion in parliament. One source has it that a winter session of parliament is likely to see a UML motion tabled. What is to be watched then is whether the Deuba camp will defy the congress party whip. If this emerges, is the Girija camp strong enough to take disciplinary action against the Deuba lobby.
While such scenario may help the Prime Minister pre-empt a split and accommodate Deuba demands after he ensures his preeminence at Pokhara, it may well be that the Pokhara meet will enthuse him even further to provoke the crises once and for all. It is what the Deuba camp will do that thus becomes the key question.
The UML action in the forthcoming session is perhaps a safe bet. But one extra-systemic factor remains unsure still. Even the Telegraph Weekly was not spared an anonymous electronic mail message that the hitherto underground General Secretary of the CPN (Maoists’) is coming to Kathmandu one day prior to National Democracy Day on Falgun 7 that is February 17. This signifies the movement’s gaining strength within Kathmandu valley. Given that it is widely acknowledged that the disturbances witnessed here in the last fortnight had a Maoists component to it, the calculated presence of such Maoists messages does indicate the presence of a program here that is likely to take advantage of further such weaknesses in the current political establishment.
The effort by political establishment this week to seek an overall-all party program favoring the status quo on the plea of ethnic goodwill may be one indicator of current systemic response. It is the Maoist response that is being watched.