Deuba’s fate hangs in balance

January 12, 2005
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Kathmandu: Time is running out much to the discomfiture of Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba and his colleagues in government who prefer going to the elections should the Maoists cross the January 13 deadline offer for talks.

By time this newspaper reaches to the readers, a complete day would have been left with the government to decide on how to proceed with the country’s politics if the Maoists do not respond to the government’s call for talks within January 13, that is tomorrow.

The fact is that neither Deuba can declare polls as announced earlier nor he can wait the Maoists to come to the talks sine die. The chances of his being sacked once more are very high. Expectedly, Deuba should have become pretty nervous. Poor Deuba!

The Maoists, to whom the call has been made by the lame-duck government, have so far not even provided slightest hint that they favor talks or wish to honor to Deuba’s requests.

The fact is that Maoists straight no to talks does speak so many things at a time.

Firstly, the Maoists continue to consider this government as an establishment that enjoyed no authority or whatsoever so far it were concerned with the commanding the activities of the Royal Nepal Army.

Secondly, the Maoists still consider that this government, even if it claimed the other way, can’t take decisions at time of the talks when it came to the to the talks of the demand for a constituent assembly or for that matter having a round table conference and an interim arrangement as demanded by the other camp.

Thirdly, the Maoists conclude that since this government would not bring in the good offices neither of the UN nor of some internationally recognized mediators or facilitators for a variety of political reasons.

To recall, the Maoists of late have not been insisting on the UN involvement at time of the talks, however, have hinted that they would be more than willing to attend to the talks provided some recognized and reputed international institution were invited to the scene at time of the talks. In saying so perhaps the Maoists fear that if by chance they came to the talks and certain points were agreed upon between the two, the government might retreat out rightly should some invisible forces forced the establishment to do so. This possibility perhaps has been impelling the rebels to go in for a recognized mediator which is very much understandable.

Thirdly, the Maoists conclude that since the Nepali army remains unconditionally loyal and honest to the King and thus there was no point in talking to Tom, Dick and Harry who neither can convince the military nor possess the capability to do so.

This means that the loyalty of the army towards the King could be a strong point which discourages the Maoists to come to the talks with a government that they presume was more close to the palace than even the palace authorities.

As if these allegations were not enough, a section of Deuba’s own party men subscribe to the view that the Royal palace becomes stronger as and when Deuba is the prime minister.

Could be a mere conjecture indeed but the allegations are there. Deuba is the victim of these allegations fortunately or unfortunately.

It is not for nothing perhaps as to why the Maoists at times speak out their mind hinting that they would be willing to talks straight to the King in order to get their demands agreed upon. In saying so perhaps they indicate that their selection of the King for talks is right for it is the King who can only satisfy their demands. Its corollary would be to think that the Maoists understand better that the political concessions, which they were demanding, could only materialize if the King willingly yields some of the powers which the rebels would wish to get from him.

The fact is also that any team acting on behalf of the government at time of the talks can go up to a desired limit and can’t cross the threshold when it came to the curtailment of the King’s powers. In effect the team entrusted to talk to the Maoists would have a limit over which political demands could be met with and which to be rejected. Under these circumstantial limitations attached with the existing constitutional authority of the monarch, the team could do little to satisfy the radical demands of the Maoists.

It should be these factors which should have guided the Maoists of late that they would prefer to talk to the King or his close aide.

The constitutional provisions, however, do not allow the monarch to come to the talks with the Maoists. Neither he would do so nor he could be pressed for that, say constitutional experts.

Nevertheless, at best what the monarch can do is to send signals to the other camp that well these were some points wherein he could agree with the other side in the name of the nation.

But then the million-dollar question is that will the King agree to hand over his exclusive powers under the pressure of the Maoists?

The Maoists would not settle for less. The King is not going to yield to the Maoists pressures. The fate of the nation thus appears to continue in limbo for some more time to come.

Reports have it that the Deuba government is devising some fresh mechanisms on how to bring the rebels to talks and is expected any time from now to announce its fresh initiatives.

High placed sources say that the imbroglio would continue until the King is back from his India trip, which is materializing soon.

Should this mean that the key to the Nepal’s Maoists issue laid in the Indian hands? Things associated with this question would come to picture after King’s Delhi visit.

Nevertheless, the arrival next week of Samuel Tamrat, the UN Secretary General Kofi Annan’s special envoy here is significant.