Deuba’s days numbered

August 25, 2004
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Kathmandu: Nepali politics is poised for a change.

High placed sources say that the political change in Nepal would have already taken place by this time had the incumbent prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba not been invited by Indian government to pay an official visit.

High placed sources in Kathmandu say that the Palace is not that happy with the functioning of the incumbent Deuba government which has so far failed to even manage the announcement of a ceasefire with the Maoists let alone the talks.

Add to this, the Palace is also presumably not pleased with the ever-deteriorating security situation in the country more so in the valley.

The Maoists of late have stepped up their violent activities right inside the valley and around thus signaling the establishment that every thing was under their target if they so desire and thus have already demonstrated by killing police men and some innocent civilians and making explosions here and there in Kathmandu.

Media reports have it that the Maoists have managed the entry of some thousand of their trained cadres in the valley to shake the Deuba establishment.

STF-special task force is what the Maoists claim have supposedly entered into the capital and are learnt to be in a mood to terrify the government to the extent that it ultimately agrees to the Maoists demands for the talks on their conditions.

Perhaps it is this realization that the government now talks of the talks and has openly invited the insurgents for talks and that too unconditionally provided the rebels stop killings and terrorizing the people henceforth.

The fact is that the Maoists have time and again reiterated that they were in favor of the talks. Similarly, the government states that it is in favor of the talks. However, analysts’ questions if both the sides long for talks then why are the talks not taking place?

Is it that some international players are blocking the peace talks?

Or is it the issue of the constituent assembly as demanded by the Maoists is not being digested by the other camp?

To recall, most of the major Nepali political forces, save the establishment side, have expressed their preference for the constituent assembly if that in any way restored peace in the country.

Sources close to the government say that it is still thinking the pros and the cons of the constituent assembly option. But how long it would take to decide on that is a question that is puzzling the people.

A section of the intellectuals and media say that since the government can’t declare its preference for the assembly option and hence the King has to speak his mind on this Maoists adamancy and preference.

But will the King speak himself? Or he would do so through the government will have to be watched.

Government sources say that Deuba during his sojourn in New Delhi will have talks in detail on how to tackle the Nepalese Maoists issue. Nepali presumption has been that since India herself has lately perceived a threat from the growing links of the Nepali rebels with its own insurgents and thus would come to the rescue of the Nepali establishment engrossed in the issue since ten years or so.

However, India, say analysts, could also impress upon Deuba not to bring in the mediation of the UN for certain exclusive reasons. This means that the question of UN being invited to act like a broker of peace will have to get clearance from New Delhi. If Nepal invited the UN would mean that Indian acceptance was there and if not then that would mean India disapprove the idea itself?

However, what is not clear so far is that why India should object to the UN presence in Nepal? In what manner it harmed Indian interests?

All these put together what could be concluded is that politics will come to action once Deuba is back from Delhi.

It is altogether a different matter whether Deuba survives after his Delhi trip or not given the rumors in Kathmandu that his days were numbered in the government.