Even as large swathes of the country continue to be ravaged by heavy rainfall this week, the dry June has farmers worried over their productivity
By SANJAYA DHAKAL
Nepal continues to be haunted by extreme swings of monsoon this year. While this week witnessed deaths and destructions in many parts of the country due to floods and landslides, relatively fewer rainfall during the month of June is feared to affect the agricultural output.
The delayed monsoon showers in most parts of country has triggered fears of significant effect on the agricultural productivity in the coming year of this agriculture-dependant impoverished Himalayan Kingdom.
In the absence of cushions like irrigation facilities and subsidies on power, fertilizer, seeds and so on, Nepal farmers depend wholly on the nature of the monsoon. “Since November 1999, the government has withdrawn all kinds of subsidies like on the price of fertilizer, seeds, irrigation services and food procurement at the pressures of donor organizations, rendering the agriculture to be wholly dependant on monsoon,” said Dr. Bishwambher Pyakuryal, Professor of Economics at the Central Department of Economics of Tribhuwan University, the largest university of Nepal.
Therefore, it came as no surprise when on the first week of July hundreds of people from poor Tharu community engaged in a bizarre tradition with the ‘belief’ of pleasing the rain-God. Helpless and frustrated over the lack of rainfall, the womenfolk belonging to Tharu community of Banke district in mid-western Nepal wore male attires and plowed the fields. Whereas, the menfolk wore female attires and assisted them by delivering lunches at the field – the total switchover of traditional roles. The Tharu community had no other option than to expect divine intervention as there is no facility of irrigation and their farms were drying up due to delayed monsoon showers. “I am worried we might not even get works, if it does not rain,” said Barshanta Tharu expressing the woes of landless people who depend upon agricultural labor for their livelihood. Elsewhere, farmers engaged in worships of Lord Indra – the mythical God of Rain in Hindu religion – for rainfall.
Narayan Sapkota, a farmer from Kavre district, nervously looks up to the sky. “Every time the dark clouds gather, my heart warms up. But, unfortunately, the rainfall has not occurred on time. Now I am worried how I would support my family since productivity is sure to decline this year,” he said. Sapkota has a field that is just able to support the food requirement of his family of six the year round. “If the late monsoon affects the productivity, I do not know what I would do,” he added.
Similar is the story of Bhishma Khadka of Sindhupalchowk district. Khadka largely depends on the rice he grows on his field for not only the food requirement of his family but also to buy clothes and other items. “Last year, I had a good harvest and could buy new clothes for my family members. This year, I don’t think I am going to be that lucky,” he said.
Monsoon generally enters Nepal on early June and remains active till September. This is the period when 80 percent of the total annual rainfall occurs. The majority of the farmers in Nepal plant rice – the staple food – in the mid-June. This year most of the farmers have not yet started the plantation. Those who managed the plantation during the early showers are worried that the saplings might die due to lack of adequate moisture.
“This year, although the monsoon did enter on normal time, it failed to become much active in the initial weeks. In fact, during the third and the fourth week of June, the most parts of the country witnessed dry spell,” said Krishna Bhakta Manandhar, a weather forecaster at the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology. And these two very weeks were the most crucial ones as far as rice plantation season was concerned. The rainfall was at a normal trend till mid June. But the sudden dryness that developed subsequently left total rainfall in June to a mere 183 mm, the least in last 13 years.
The average rainfall for June is 252 mm. Before this year, the lowest rainfall was in 1991,when just 114 mm rainfall was recorded in the month, according to the Department of the Hydrology and Meteorology.
“In the absence of irrigation facilities, the farmers have to depend on monsoon and they have to time their plantation very delicately. Particularly, in the hilly regions, if the farmers cannot plant rice during mid-June, the productivity just slacks down,” said Bhola Man Singh Basnet, chief information officer at the Nepal Agricultural Research Council (NARC) – the leading government body engaged in agriculture research. “Any delay in monsoon shower will most definitely hurt the farmers because once planted, the rice will require adequate temperature, which will not be available in hilly region if they miss that key period,” added Basnet. He added that the panicles or the ear-heads of the rice does not develop properly in the absence of adequate temperature. “If the rice plants do not receive rainfall on time and if they do not get adequate temperature, the grain-filling does not occur rendering the cr op useless.”
Hilly areas cover 68 percent of total land mass of Nepal – 17 percent is covered by plain areas called Terai and 15 percent by mountainous region. And the hilly areas are responsible for producing 30 percent of the total volume of rice produced by the country and 70 percent of maize – whose plantation season also coincides with that of rice. Likewise, hilly areas produce 50 percent of wheat. Rice, maize and wheat are considered the three most important cereal crops in terms of food security in the country. Out of the three, rice is considered the most important.
Even as weather forecasters say that the monsoon this year will be normal in the end, the farmers are already worried about the impact the delayed showers will have on their rice and maize productivity. “I see there is going to be at least 5-7 percent decline in the rice productivity next year,” said Keshab Badal, a leading peasant movement campaigner and an agricultural scholar.
“Monsoon, by nature, are erratic. Sometime they come at normal time and sometime they don’t. This year, although the monsoon clouds had arrived on time, their activity was obstructed by dry westerly wind that came from Arabian sea,” said Manandhar.
At present, with the share of 40 percent and 80 percent in GDP and labor force respectively, the agriculture plays a key role in the overall economy and society.
In the year 2003, the country had witnessed a bumper harvest of rice – with the growth of 7.8 percent compared to the previous year – which propelled the overall economic growth to just over 4 percent despite gloomy predictions based on grinding effects of the spiraling insurgency. “If agriculture productivity is even slightly affected, the national economy will have to bear significant shocks,” said Dr. Pyakuryal.
In the current fiscal year (2003/2004) – which will end on mid-July – the total rice production is expected to exceed 44,56,000 metric tons – a record yield that coincided with the UN-declared International Year of Rice. Due to good monsoon, the year also witnessed record growth in the production of major cereal crops. Over 56,53, 385 metric tons of the crops (including rice, maize and wheat) were produced in the year as against the total national requirement of 46,19,982 metric tons, according to Basnet. “We are gradually becoming self-reliant on food production,” he added.
But all these achievements could undo in the coming year. Keshab Badal believes that until and unless scientific irrigation system is put in place, the Nepalese farmers will continue to have to depend on the mother nature.
“It is found that there is co-relation between the incidents of poverty and scarcity or inaccessibility of water. Even the land endowment would not bring more income if there is no water for cultivation. As such, the irrigation facilities can contribute towards national and household food security, better facilities and opportunities to the land owners,” said Prachanda Man Pradhan, an irrigation expert and chairman of Farmer Managed Irrigation Systems Promotion Trust.
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Experts have said that although around US$ 1 billion has been invested in the irrigation sector in the last 50 years, it could not bring any change in agriculture as well as food security scenario.
Out of the total cultivated area of 29,68,017 hectares, only 985,546 hectares of land have irrigation facilities available. All round the year irrigation is available to only about 30 percent of the irrigated areas.
“The growth in agriculture sector is vital for overall economic growth of the country,” said an official at the Ministry of Agriculture, who revealed that the Ministry was yet to assess the impact of delayed showers on the agricultural productivity. “ The government’s National Planning Commission plans to irrigate additional 200,000 hectares of land in the next three years.