Kathmandu: Girija Koirala sources calculatedly leak that the sudden resignation of the Prime Minister was a result of the differences with the Royal Palace on the use of the Army at Rolpa among others. The fact that the resignation was sudden is revealing in the sense that the party, the family and the coterie were caught unaware of the Prime Minister making secret summons to the official media, read the Radio Nepal and Nepal Television, where his outgoing speech was relayed directly with even the covering mediamen unaware of the sudden summons to Baluatar.
This is in contrast to the adamant posture of the Prime Minister merely the previous morning refusing to yield to demands for a resignation. Constitutionally, G.P.Koirala was the leader of the majority party in parliament. The fact that Koirala remains strong is born in the 40 votes he secured for his handpicked nominee-the party general secretary Sushil Koirala. The new Prime Minister Deuba’s 72 votes is largely a result of patchwork compromises triggered by GPs sudden withdrawal. It is this that is likely to be Deuba’s source of doom.
Indeed, this decisive parliamentary session has now not only ousted the Girija hard-line but has put as parliamentary party leader and prime minister Sher Bahadur Deuba in a position where he is unlikely to get positive support from not only 40 members of his own parliamentary party who clearly remain with Girija hard-line. Moreover, his party president and party general secretary are likely to be antagonistic to the new government. The new Deuba cabinet on the other hand is largely likely to be a result of compromises. This suggests that the ouster of the congress strongman may most likely have yielded a weak government.
This is of course, if Deuba remains by himself. His test will be in how he garners the opposition Left support anticipated on the basis of the indirect support Koirala’s party opposition received from the Left in parliament and outside. Whether or not there is this unseen alignment will be reflected this session itself. Deuba can’t but begin producing results on the matter of talks with the Maoists where Rolpa has been the biggest embarrassment. Among other things, a change in policy must emanate regarding the use of the Army given the deadlock at Rolpa.
Moreover, Deuba must set about producing the much-demanded political dialogues with the insurgents. For the UML opposition moreover, it will be how Deuba handles the much blown up corruption charges will perhaps be the condition of support.
All in all therefore, the new Prime Minister has a hornet’s nest to tackle at the very outset. Girija babu’s sudden resignation is designed to catch him on the wrong foot.
Of particular consequence will be the Koirala insinuations on the new monarchy. Given the congress history opposition activity within the congress will now center on the politics of the Palace. Anticipatory moves have already begun charging that Deuba will sell out to the Palace. This, regardless of the calculated Palace stand as the lone stickler to the constitution. It is revealing that only the congress, particularly Koirala sources, make derogatory remarks linking the Palace to the Rolpa stalemate.