By Dr. Thomas A. Marks

Even as I write, events in Nepal unfold as if a Broadway play – nary a miscue from the script passed out months ago in the Nepalese media.

Having declared a “ceasefire inside the Kathmandu Valley,” thus to gain the media “spin” that would necessarily come from “peaceful protestors” being “attacked,” the Maoists proceeded elsewhere in the country to attack positions. The Butwal attack is only the most recent example.

Open use of violence “outside” the urban centers has been accompanied by orchestrated rioting “inside.” That the foreign media (with the help of the anti-government sectors in the Nepali media) persist in calling such “peaceful protest” only demonstrates how thoroughly detached they are from the reality of the people’s war approach.

From the Maoist Playbook

To outline the Maoist strategy for those who were not present at the auditions for parts:

● Overload the security forces “inside” while attacking with main forces “outside.” Claim to be only supporting “peaceful” forces for change.

● Use government troop deployments to advantage. If the security forces must move more men inside, flow into the vacuums left behind. If they move outside, send urban partisans inside.

● Exploit every death and claim that any setback (e.g. failure to overthrow the government) proves that only the violent way is left to install “absolute democracy.”

● Break the RNA at all costs. RNA is the one real obstacle remaining in the quest for power. So caught up is the SPA in its short-term effort to remain relevant that it is oblivious to long-term peril. SPA can be counted upon to mindlessly perform on cue.

● Move now to exploit the opening provided by Indian perfidy. New Delhi senses an opportunity to at long last create of Nepal a dependency that will do as it is told.

From the Maoist perspective, they have adopted a “win/win” course of action: no matter what actually happens, they will benefit.

By declaring a “ceasefire outside Kathmandu Valley,” they seal off the battle area, declaring that it will be a fight between rival bodies of manpower. They feel that the SPA manpower on the streets can overwhelm whatever the police and APF (the backup) can put on the playing field.

When the authorities make mistakes, which ultimately they must if SPAM plans go off as scripted, the government is again “human rights abusers” — and the howls can already be heard from the usual suspects. Some elements of the Nepali media appear to be working deliberately to fan the anti-government flames.

Further, the violence allows the Maoists to claim they at least gave “peace” a chance.

The dream scenario, from the SPAM perspective, is to replay 1990, with masses rushing across the open boulevard leading to the main palace gate, the troops forced to open fire, bodies filmed by international media and beamed worldwide, India declaring it can no longer stand by “as democracy is crushed.”

Role of India

India’s role remains to be untangled, but no one who was in Sri Lanka in July 1987 – as I was – can overlook the startling similarities. The Indian invasion, conveniently disguised as the IPKF (Indian Peace Keeping Force), was but the culmination of half a decade of support for Tamil insurgents/terrorists that New Delhi thought it could “manage.”

Then, as now, the shape of the international arena played a significant role. India, many have forgotten, had sided with the Evil Empire. There were some 6-7,000 Soviet advisors in the country. It was the first country outside the Warsaw Pact to receive the MIG-29 fighter, the first (and only) ever to be rented a nuclear submarine.

Beyond all else, in a relationship only now emerging from files of the KGB spirited out of the country prior to the resumption of the authoritarianism, the government of Indira Gandhi allowed itself to be fed Soviet disinformation that convinced it Sri Lanka was a threat.

Alleged “special intelligence” provided by Moscow purported to prove Colombo was on the verge of granting Washington basing and spying facilities, India became involved with the Tamil insurgents, eventually training, arming, and basing them. When an initial massing of forces to invade in early 1984 was warned off by the Reagan administration, Delhi simply waited for a more propitious moment. This came in July 1987, as the Sri Lankans moved to crush the trapped insurgents in Jaffna.

What that moment shares with the present is the astonishingly bad “intelligence” that drove Indian policymaking, as well as the claim that “foreign hands” support the monarch. Putting the word in quotation marks only highlights what Indian field commanders realized within days of landing in Jaffna – there was little they had been given in their briefing packets that was accurate.

That India’s Research and Analysis Wing (RAW) had produced “analysis” every bit as flawed as any in the annals of intelligence debacles has since been recognized by no less than India’s imperious Proconsul at the time, J.N. Dixit (now deceased) – though he continued to claim, even in his last writings, that India’s information on America’s intentions was completely reliable.

That India had completely botched its assessments of Sri Lankan ground realities would not surprise anyone who has followed what has emerged as the dominant government position in the present Nepali crisis. Indeed, Indian participants in panels held in Washington, DC, such as S.D. Muni, have distinguished themselves principally in what can only be characterized as willful ignorance of SPAM pronouncements and motives.

To cite but the most egregious example, the Indians continue to claim SPAM is willing to negotiate for itself a role in a parliamentary framework headed by a constitutional monarchy, even as the Maoists give press conferences claiming they will try the monarch in a people’s court.

There do seem to be analysts who have correctly identified the astonishingly strategic myopia involved in destabilizing Nepal further even as India itself grapples with its own growing Maoist challenge. In his recent “India, Maoism and Nepal,” former Finance Minister Madhukar S.J.B. Rana hit the nail squarely on the head when he wrote, “India is playing a dangerous game of pure real politic where it seeks to intervene in Nepal militarily by using the Maoist [as published] as proxy under the unbelievable propaganda ‘to secure peace and democracy for the Nepalese people and to arrest the impending refugee inflow into its own territory’.”

Change a word here and there, and the logic is identical to the debacle that became IPKF. It is further noteworthy that in the three bloody years that followed July 1987, IPKF acquitted itself well in “India’s Vietnam” (as it was called by the press), even as Indian policymakers sought to cast blame for the blunder on anyone and everyone except themselves. (The most ludicrous position, of course, was the very one the Maoists advance now: it is all the fault of American imperialism.)

Where to From Here?

As irony would have it, it is the growing amicability of India and the US which has served as the strategic cover for New Delhi to bring Kathmandu to heel. Nepali sources have become increasingly blunt (and strident) in the same manner as the Sri Lankans all those years ago, as the Indian ties to Nepali violence become more clear.

One does not have to engage in plot mongering to posit that India is making a major policy error in steering its present course. Neither does one have to cast aspersions to point out the obvious: the SPA portion of SPAM has been willing to play the quisling for momentary political gain.

For it will be momentary, come what may. Let us suppose that the present government collapsed tomorrow. Where would that leave SPA? With two useless pieces of paper and a worthless sheath of promises.

What is tragic is that very little would seem to separate the sides at the moment save profound mistrust. The king agrees that parliamentary democracy should be restored with a constitutional monarch. The Maoists claim they will accept a democratic republic of whatever sort is decided by a constitutional convention. SPA claims the same. SPAM as a whole claims to desire a “ceremonial monarch” (but the “M” has been unwilling to desist from claiming a trial or exile is the only way out for the present monarch). RNA would become a true “national” army, which, not surprisingly, it already thinks it is.

It is important to interject RNA into the discussion, because the shape of any successor organization was a major sticking point in the previous 2003 round of ceasefire talks. SPAM seems to think this institution will simply agree to dissolve itself without discussions of what this entails.

That this will not happen was put to the Maoists directly in 2003, but they were as unwilling then to grapple with the complexities thus raised as they appear to be now. Yet the growing stratum of combat-tested, politically astute officers is not simply going to go as lambs to the slaughter.

Thus a great deal more thought is required upon the part of all sides. This will not take place as long as SPAM persists in its present course.

Dr. Thomas A. Marks is a political risk consultant based in Honolulu, Hawaii and a frequent visitor to Nepal. He has authored a number of benchmark works on Maoist insurgency. Please send your comments to [email protected].

(Editor’s Note: Nepalis, wherever they live, as well as friends of Nepal around the globe are requested to contribute their views/opinions/recollections etc. on issues concerning present day Nepal to the Guest Column of Nepalnews. Length of the article should not be more than 1,000 words and may be edited for the purpose of clarity and space. Relevant photos as well as photo of the author may also be sent along with the article. Please send your write-ups to [email protected])

Nepal is out of the AFC Challenge Cup after losing to Sri Lanka 5-3 in penalty shoot out of the semi-finals at MA Aziz Stadium, Chittagong on Wednesday.

Pradeep Maharjan squandered two spots kick to dash the hopes of the Nepalese team reaching the finals of an international tournament since 1993, when they defeated India in the final of SAF Championship in Dhaka, Bangladesh.

Nepal was awarded an penalty in the 63rd minute when Lankan goalie Sugath Thilakarathne pulled down Basanta Thapa inside the box. Nepal’s hopes of going ahead 1-0 was dashed when Pradeep Maharjan missed the penalty kick.

The Lankan team took a huge boost from the miss and thwarted the Nepalese den two minutes later. Weerarathna Jayasuriya bamboozled the Nepalese sleeping defense line capitalizing on the free-kick from Mohamed Izzadeen to shoot past goalie Bikash Malla.

However, the Nepalese team continued its attacking attempts and were rewarded when Bijaya Gurung showed a classy move to supply a superb pass to Basanta who didn’t miss the sitter to level the score. Nepalese skipper Basanta Thapa, Vishan Gauchan and others missed several chances throughout the match. Sri Lanka also had some attempts late in the second half but their attempts were denied by Bikash Malla.

After completion of regulation time, the teams played to a scoreless 30 minutes of extra time and settled for the penalty shootout for the victory. Sri Lanka began the shoot out with Kamaldeen Fuard, Chathura Madurange Weerasingha, Chathura Gunarathna and Ediribandanage Channa converting their penalties. For Nepal Anjan KC, Tashi Tsering and Nabin Neupane converted and it was Pradeep Maharjan’s turn to kick to level the score. But his kick sailed over the bar and when Lankan Jeewantha Dhammika Ratnayaka netted a cool spot kick, the celebrations started for the Lankan side victorious 5-3.

“We were bereft from lady luck and it is hard to believe that Pradeep missed a spot kick as he is our best shooter,” Nepalese coach Shyam Thapa told reporters. “However, I am satisfied with their play,” he added. Sri Lanka will now travel to Dhaka to play the winner of the second semi-final between Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan to be played on Thursday.

The final will be played on April 16. nepalnews.com bt Apr 13 06

Tens of thousands of people joined a major demonstration organised by the seven opposition political parties in Bharatpur in the southwestern district of Chitwan on Thursday.

General people, seven-party activists, human rights workers and professionals gathered in Bharatpur from different parts of Chitwan and neighbouring Nawalparasi district in the afternoon and defied the curfew orders imposed in the town, reports said.

The demonstrators who assembled to protest the government clampdown on seven-party agitations around the country in recent days chanted slogans demanding ‘total democracy’ and end to ‘royal autocracy’.

The Chitwan demonstration is said to be biggest in recent days after the launching of nationwide general strike by the seven-party alliance on April 6. Local leaders of the alliance claimed more than 100,000 participated in the rally.

Unlike in the past, security forces did not intervene into the mass rally even as it defied the curfew orders, reports added. nepalnews.com mk Apr 13 06

A day after the announcement to close down the consular office and the American Library indefinitely, the US State Department has at the recommendation of the US Embassy in Kathmandu authorised US mission officials and their families to leave Nepal voluntarily.

”At the recommendation of the US Embassy in Kathmandu, the State Department on April 12 authorized departure from Nepal for non-emergency US Mission personnel and families. “This authorization means non-emergency employees, their family members, and families of employees who must remain at post can opt to depart Nepal in coming days,” a press statement issued by the US Embassy on Thursday said.

The Embassy recommended this step following a week of widespread demonstrations, violence, and growing instability throughout Nepal, the statement further said.

Similarly, the State Department in its “updated Travel Warning for Nepal” said, “American citizens are urged to evaluate their personal security posture and consider whether it is appropriate to remain in Nepal. American citizens also are advised that His Majesty’s Government of Nepal continues to use curfews to control the growing number of large and widespread demonstrations.”

“Department of State urges American citizens to defer non-essential travel to Nepal and urges those Americans currently in Nepal consider departing in light of the information noted below. This supersedes the Travel Warning issued on December 15, 2005,” the updated travel warning posted in the State Department’s website said. nepalnews.com mk Apr 13 06

Foreign Minister Ramesh Nath Pandey has said that the United Arab Emirates and Qatar have agreed to provide more employment opportunities to Nepalis.

Pandey who returned from a visit to those countries on Thursday said that the UAE has also agreed to conduct a feasibility study to set up a special economic zone and that it was also positive about investing in Nepal.

According to a Foreign Ministry release, Qatar has also agreed to provide employment on security-related sectors and to invest in some special economic zones. nepalnews.com pb Apr 13 06

The UNICEF has expressed its deep concern at reports of children being beaten and arrested by the security forces in recent demonstrations organised by the seven opposition political parties in Kathmandu and other cities. The UNICEF also expressed concern over the participation of children in the demonstrations.

“Children have no place being near demonstrations that could turn violent,” UNICEF’s Nepal representative, Dr Suomi Sakai, was quoted as saying in a statement issued by the UNICEF Thursday. She added, “It is of great concern that children, some under the age of 10, have been seen taking part in demonstrations and have been injured and arrested.”

Saying that children are entitled to freedom of expression under the Convention on the Rights of Child and that their parents and guardians also have the right and responsibility to ensure that rights, the UNICEF statement said, “Organizers of any demonstration or public gathering have a responsibility to ensure that children are out of harm’s way, particularly children without family, such as street children who have no-one to look after them and are even more vulnerable.”

“UNICEF also has received some very disturbing reports from the Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights in Nepal (OHCHR-Nepal) that children in demonstrations have been arrested, beaten following arrest and have been detained, sometimes with adults,” the statement further said.

The statement further said the UNICEF has received information of five children aged between 12 and 16 years who were arrested in locations in the Kathmandu Valley on April 10, and two 14-year old boys arrested in districts outside the Kathmandu Valley in recent days.

“UNICEF reiterates the call of the UN System last year for His Majesty’s Government of Nepal to ensure that the security forces and offices with responsibility for custody verify that any child in custody is being held in accordance with the above undertakings in Article 37.” nepalnews.com mk Apr 13 06

The Nepal Telecom (NT) resumed the mobile phone services that were snapped one week ago in Kathmandu from Thursday afternoon.

The NT had disconnected both post-paid and pre-paid mobile services on Thursday, the first the nationwide general strike of the seven opposition parties, at the directives of the government.

Telecom employees had also been carrying out protests demanding immediate resumption of services.

The resumption of the mobile phone services comes on eve of the Nepali New Year.

The government had snapped the mobile phone services twice after the February 1, 2005, royal takeover. NT officials said that net loss of Nepal’s giant telecommunication service provider has grown to Rs. 2.5 billion due to frequent disruption of services.

The NT has distributed around 500 thousand mobile phone lines across the country– nearly half of the mobile lines have been distributed to in the Kathmandu Valley.

King Gyanendra is expected to address the nation on the New Year day,while speculations of some drastic announcements are rife in Kathmandu’s political circle.

On Wednesday, after six days, the government ended the curfew in the capital as angry protests organised by the seven parties continued. nepalnews.com mk Apr 13 06

Maoists exploded a bomb at the ancestral house of Assistant Minister for Agriculture and Cooperatives, Govind Choudary, in Simra Bhawanipur VDC, Rautahat district, Wednesday night.

A group of Maoists barged into the Choudhary’s house and detonated a powerful bomb at around 9:00 p.m., completely destroying the two-storey apartment, according to the state-owned Radio Nepal. The rebels also looted properties from the house.

However, nobody was injured in the incident. nepalnews.com mk Apr 13 06

Police on Thursday intervened in a peaceful sit-in programme being organised by Kathmandu-based development agencies and took into custody over 200 of them.

Police intervened in the sit-in programme being organised by the Association of International NGOs in Nepal (AIN) this afternoon at Maitighar Mandala. Police officers told the demonstrators that all type of rallies and demonstrations were prohibited inside the Ring Road. They first asked them to disperse, when they refused they intervened and drove them away in police vans and mini-trucks.

Over 200 development workers courted arrest silently in a graceful manner. Nobody raised slogans. Placards being carried by the development workers read: We want peace, We want human rights, Start peace negotiations immediately.

Talking to Nepalnews while being escorted by policemen to a van, president of the AIN and country director of the Action Aid Nepal, Dr. Shivesh Chandra Regmi, said it is the gross violation of citizen’s right to peaceful assembly and freedom of expression.

“We have got no political agenda. We decided to express our concerns since development works have been affected badly due to the prolonged conflict,” he added.

Sixty member organisations of the AIN pump in nearly Rs eight billion every year to implement development works, provide humanitarian assistance and empower dalit, women and ethnic communities even in the remote areas where there is no presence of the government. nepalnews.com by Apr 13 06

The National Human Rights Commission (NHRC) has said that it has urged the government to take action against security personnel involved in excessive force against protestors during the pro-democracy movement.

A press statement issued by the NHRC said the commission has asked Senior Superintendent of Police Madhav Thapa for clarification over the excessive use of force during demonstration of political parties in Gongabu area of Kathmandu on Tuesday.

Nearly 90 pro-democracy activists were injured when security forces opened fire using rubber bullets at protestors in Gongabu area of Kathmandu on Tuesday.

The statement further said the commission is monitoring the protest programmes organized by seven party alliance (SPA) since April 6 from central office and regional offices Biratnagar, Pokhara, Nepalgunj and Dhangadhi.

The national rights watchdog has said that the security forces used excessive forces during the demonstration of political parties on Tuesday.

“It was found that the security forces used excessive force while arresting people and many people including doctors, human rights activists and journalists were injured when security forces opened fire indiscriminately,” the statement added.

The statement also said that it found that security forces used excessive force even after taking demonstrators under control.

The statement further said, the NHRC has recommended the government to provide free treatment to all people injured in demonstrations.

Stating that the protestors also used children and vandalized public properties during demonstrations, the NHRC asked the organizers not to create any hurdle in free movement of people and conduct their programmes peacefully. nepalnews.com pb Apr 13 06