Beginning Of The Great Game

June 23, 2006
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Keshab Poudel
After the signing of a new eight-point agreement between the government and the Maoists ( June 16), Nepal has entered into a new phase of political uncertainty and chaos as whatever was achieved after the promulgation of the Constitution of Kingdom of Nepal 1990, all seem to be on the verge of demolition one by one. Insurgency was able to destroy mainly the physical infrastructures inside the country. The leaders of reinstated House of Representatives under the august leadership of octogenarian leader Girija Prasad Koirala has destroyed the whole values and precedents of democratic governance that had evolved step by step during the last fifty years. Sandwiched between China and India , two big powers with unsettled borders problems, Nepal ’s geo-strategic reality and its position cannot be changed just by drafting new constitution, roadmaps or adjustment and readjustments of political alliances

By KESHAB POUDEL

The CPN-UML general secretary Madhav Kumar Nepal, who is used to play all kinds of roles in the great game of political destabilization in the last fifteen years and who was instrumental to prepare a highly controversial proclamation of the House of Representatives, faced one of the hardest time in his political life to convince his party comrades at the standing committee about the need to endorse the eight-point roadmap signed between the seven party government and the Maoists.

Resentments expressed by CPN-UML’s top body was understandable as the new roadmap is a death warrant to the House in which the CPN-UML and its members were enjoying all kinds of state privileges as the second largest party.

Similarly, the voices of dissensions are also emerging from other members of seven party alliance. From ruling Nepali Congress to Nepali Congress (Democratic) and Nepal Workers and Peasants Party (NWPP) to Nepal Sadbhavana Party-Anandidevi and two factions for Rastriya Prajatantra Party, all of them opposed the way the roadmap was prepared hastily declared on June 23.

“The important issues like the dissolution of the House of Representatives and the formation of a committee to draft the interim constitution were taken without any prior discussions among the seven party alliance,” said Narayan Man Bijukchhe, chairman of Nepal Peasant and Worker Party. Prime Minister Koirala signed the new road map following his meeting with Maoist chairman Prachanda in Baluwatar on Friday (June 16).

Even many senior leaders of prime minister Koirala’s party including Ram Chandra Poudel and Arjun Narshing K.C. were unaware about the new development – which was announced following the one-to-one meeting between PM Koirala and Prachanda. They are still unsure how the new deal will be implemented.

It is reported that Home Minister Krishna Sitaula and NC leader and nephew of PM Koirala, Shekhar Koirala were the main players behind the latest roadmap.

“Party leaders must answer who proposed the dissolution of House of Representatives and the formation of new interim government when Maoists are yet to give up violence and terror in the country,” demanded NC leader Arjun Narshing K.C. “As long as Maoists do not shun the violence, there is no question of bringing them in interim government.”

There are opposition within the political parties and their leadership regarding the new roadmap and the question of its implementation. After the promulgation of interim constitution, the life of House of Representatives, which itself unconstitutionally claimed to be the supra constitutional body, is going to be the first victim.

“Leaders – who were confident to be the prominent and lasting beneficiary of the changes, have lost their confidence. In a new situation, leaders of the political parties in the parliament are the greatest losers – perhaps more than monarch. The King has, at least, an assurance of ceremonial role till now but the present leaders in the parliament have no assurance for even status quo until the elections for CA is held. After prime minister Girija Prasad Koirala returns from health treatment in Bangkok , all the politicians of present parliament may have to go out lock, stock and barrel,” said a political analyst.

Although there are massive opposition within the parties’ ranks and file, no one is in a position to challenge the roadmap and condemn the agreement publicly. The leaders of seven parties – who had committed the unconstitutional work through the House of Representatives to the extent of declaring themselves as the state – have now option now other than to search for their places in the new political reality.

“For the sake of peace, we need to respect the agreement signed with CPN-Maoist. If Maoists honestly follow it, the country will see a new phase of peace and development,” said CPN-UML general secretary Madhav Kumar Nepal , addressing a joint press conference with the Maoists. A day after signing the agreement he complained that he did not find enough time to correct it.

Many political leaders vehemently opposed the agreement privately but they are compelled to support it in public. Though hastily formed interim constitution drafting committee does not have representation of women, Dalits and Janajati, no political leaders had the guts to come out against it.

“Nepal is in a whirlpool of political instability of a unique feature in which its leaders and actors seem to be quite confused when they express their dissatisfaction in private gossip but cooperate obediently and without any note of dissent in public,” said the analyst.

Government-Maoists Agreement

Unlike previous two rounds of talks held in July 2001 and January 2003 between then governments and Maoists, the third round of talks has produced results amazingly.

Just within a month of negotiation, both the parties agreed upon a settlement package. The third round of talks began following the fourth ceasefire in April 26, 2006 . The government and the Maoists held their first round of talks in Kathmandu on May 26, 2006 in Gokarna resort. The second round of talks was held in June 15 in Hotel Himalaya. The final negotiations among top leaders of the government and the Maoists took place on June 16.

The June 16 agreement – which was signed in Prime Minister’s Residence in Baluwatar, consists of five major issues. They agreed on an eight-point agenda, which has, among others, agreed to frame an interim statute, an interim government, declare the date for an election to a Constituent Assembly and invite the Untied Nations for decommissioning of weapons, dissolve the revived House of Representatives and the Maoists’ People’s Governments based on mutual understanding.

“Destabilization of the previous order appears spontaneous and uncontrolled. An unseen power is the real determinant of the present situation of Nepal than the seen powers in the street and the parliament,” said the analyst. “This is a fact, which large number of people seem to be knowing by their own observation but there are very few who get space in the press.”

Following the agreement, the government also announced six-members Statute-drafting committee under the chairmanship of former Supreme Court judge Laxman Prasad Aryal. The members are Sambhu Thapa, president of Nepal Bar Association, advocate Harihar Dahal, advocate Mahadev Yadav, senior advocate Sindhunath Pyakurel and advocate Khim Lal Devkota.

All these events unfolded in such a dramatic manner that nobody believed the rebel leaders – who waged such a bloody war in which 13,000 people were killed – could agree in such a magical mood. At a time when many firebrand leaders in the Maoist party are yet to issue the statement publicly, nobody can predict its final outcome.

“There had been prediction of this situation by experts on Nepalese affairs like late Leo Rose and political activists like B.P. Koirala,” said the analyst. About thirty years back when B.P. risked his life, there was this apprehension in his words described in the statement issued on December 30, 1976 upon return from foreign exile, – “ Today, our country is in a national crisis. All have realized that this crisis is getting heightened since the last few years… In the history of every nation there comes moment when it its people have to risk their lives to safeguard the national identity.”

“Unfortunately, that ideal hardly creeps in the mind of even his own party’s leaders and his kith and kin. It was hardly expected from radical leftists to carry on their mission because this force has always been used as a destabilizing one and that ends once their utility ends for an unseen machination,” said the analyst.

Events After Royal Proclamation

Since the Royal Proclamation of April 24, a series of events followed one after another. Till the time of Royal Proclamation, public was given a six-point roadmap in which the most prominent was to reactivate the constitution fully through the reinstatement of House of Representatives. The parliament was ordered to be assembled by a Royal proclamation – all the members followed that without any murmur and resumed functions as parliamentarians of the normal times within the constitution.

“Soon after the reinstatement of House of Representatives, a new roadmap suddenly appeared as CPN-UML leader Subash Chandra Nembang was elected as the Speaker but he did not take oath in accordance with the constitution, which reinstated him and the HoR. In a demagogue style by framing of pledge by his own discretion, nobody in the HoR questioned the constitutionality of that pledge because no one was prepared to claim for a dignified and constitutional role of opposition leaders,” added the political analyst.

The house before the dissolution had a division of treasury and opposition benches. After its reinstatement, people suddenly found that the demarcation between the two was erased and there was not a single voice of dissent.

The next phase of politics from HoR started with an amazing concept of constitutional law. Nobody knew where and by whom the declaration of the HoR was drafted.

When it was suddenly read out by the Speaker of the House of Representatives Subash Chandra Nembang, some prominent constitutional lawyers talked about unlearning their previous knowledge of constitutional law.

A few had been trying to do that in their faltering spirit but for most of them they were quite the exercise of stupidity. In the previous acts, some have come out with their critical views and some have made harsh comments. However, this declaration had no logical sense except to ensure the sharing of power by the present combination in the parliament.

“And soon afterwards, there came out another roadmap suddenly and out of the blue. After a so-called summit meeting at the PM’s residence – prime minister Koirala who himself was unable to appear in the public because of his health, but the destiny imposed upon him was so persistent that he had to complete that deal even from his sick bed. This has come as a bumper game to new entrants in the national politics and for too many it has come as a death knell,” said the analyst.

Like supporting HoR’s unconstitutional acts, leaders of seven parties signed the new roadmap, which is like their death warrant, prepared by Nepali Congress leaders Girija Prasad Koirala and CPN-Maoist leader Prachanda without any opposition.

Revolutionary of one time can hardly maintain their fervor appeal forever. Leaders of CPN-UML had emerged into the public in the same dramatic fashion as Maoists of present day after the change in 1990. And now a new batch of revolutionaries has burst into the public forum in Nepal to the extent of gaining the power without any competitive election by sovereign people.

Nepal has a long history of getting rules without a popular voting. Whatever was achieved after the promulgation of 1990 constitution, all seem to be on the verge of demolition, one by one. Insurgents were able to destroy mainly physical infrastructures inside but the leaders of reinstated house under the august of leadership of octogenarian leader destroyed the whole values and precedents of democratic governance that had evolved step by step during the last fifty years. Now everything appears fluid with uncertainty. “No one knows what will happen to the party which the prime minister is leading at present. In the next roadmap, it may be no wonder that even the present prime minister Girija Prasad Koirala may meet the same fate as others in the parliament,” predicted the analyst.

Until now there is no basis to suspect the possibility of holding the election for the CA. However, it is a million rupees question whether a democratic constitution may come through CA. Who is there to ensure the competition of that task by a popular vote and democratic procedures? The King has been stripped off power, the parliament will be dissolved very soon and the interim constitution is not expected to build up any popular institution overnight to get all these things done.

Nepal ’s Geo-strategic Vulnerability

As Nepal is a small buffer country between India and China , the country is always vulnerable for instability. Their small reaction can jolt Nepal ’s institutions and rock the country. India- which shares more than 1600 kilometer border has security and other high stakes in Nepal- reportedly backed the latest deal. Along with India , China – which also shares more than 1400 kilometer border with Nepal – has yet to express its views. As China , overtly and covertly, has expressed its concerns about open border with India , strong presence of a large number of Tibetan refugees in India and Nepal , the recent political events in Nepal has created uneasiness in the north.

“The present situation in which India has reportedly played unseen role must have created anxieties on the other side of this country – that is China ,” said the political analyst.

That is not a mere figment or imagination in recent political crisis of Nepal . Some clear headed journalist of India like Sunanda Datta-Ray, Swapan Das Gupta and Kanchan Gupta’s views have come with sensitive and realistic assessment. Ray described in his words in The Telegraph, “Yet, the charge that India played the mid-wife in bringing together the Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist) and the seven parties suggests just this. India has no permanent friends in the landlocked Himalayan Kingdom . It has interests and limited options.”

“The crisis of this country has reached into to such a level that it can’t remain the same for long. Either this has to come down to the previous situation of the stable constitutional process of parliamentary democracy or it will deteriorate further compelling the other power to react and retaliate,” said the political analyst.

“ Nepal is in a very delicate geo-political situation in which peace, stability and its national independence is more a guarantee of security of both neighbors. This status quo can be disturbed by any of the neighbor at the risk of inviting retaliation by the other.”

Indian prominent leader Ramakant in his book Indo-Nepalese Relations writes, “A question can be asked as to why Indian government did not annexed Nepal , which was so important for the safety of its northern frontier. Mainly it was due to the fear of Chinese.”

“This assessment is valid even now as it was during the British India . Some short-sighted chauvinists from the south seem to have prevailed over sensible persons in the power,” said the analyst. “ Nepal again is likely to suffer serious damages to prove the time-tested conclusion of the history.”

From peace to political process and fate of political leaders, the new roadmap has jolted everything as there appears fluid and uncertainty in the country where the peace is still elusive.

Courtesy Spotlight

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