As the major political parties are ‘reluctant’ to kick off their election campaigns, citing security reasons, the future of November mid-term polls hangs in the balance. The government knows holding elections is next to impossible unless the Maoists are engaged in some sort of peace talks. But the initiative is not forthcoming. And time is running out.
By BHAGIRATH YOGI
Nearly seven weeks to go for the mid-term polls 2002. But there are no banners, no pamphlets, no wall paintings, or anything in any part of the country including capital, Kathmandu. All this shows that these are not normal times. When Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba, on May 22, recommended the King to dissolve the House of Representatives and call fresh polls on November 13 amid intense infighting in the ruling Nepali Congress, many wanted to give him the benefit of the doubt.
People power : Ignored
People power : Ignored
The premier’s decision not only resulted in a vertical split in the ruling party, it also isolated the government from major political parties and the people at large. By harping on the need to combat Maoist violence through use of force alone and shutting all doors to a political solution, the Deuba administration seemed to be ignoring the ground realities of the country.
The fierce attacks by the Maoist rebels on police and army bases in Sindhuli and Arghakhanchi districts early this month, killing over 100 security personnel, exposed the myth that the rebels had been fairly weakened after the nine-month security operations launched during the nation-wide state of emergency. As the Maoists continue their spree of killing, abduction and physical abuse of political activists in the rural areas and destroy development infrastructure, the government continues to sit helpless in Singha Durbar.
So, could the general elections pave way for a resolution of the crisis? “No,” said Hridayesh Tripathi, general secretary of the Nepal Sadbhavana Party. “In fact, the election itself has turned out to be a crisis.”
And, the situation is such that failing to hold the elections on schedule would push the country towards a constitutional deadlock. Different interpretations have come up regarding the use of Article 127 of the constitution in case the elections are not held (See separate story). But nobody is sure how normalcy can be returned in the country in the middle of relentless violence and killings ?
Crisis of Confidence
Khadka : We will hole elections
Khadka : We will hole elections
The delegates taking part in the all-party meeting convened by the Election Commission on Tuesday morning were surprised when Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba, accompanied by Home Minister Khum Bahadur Khadka, dashed into the conference room. Despite his assurances that the government was determined to hold the elections by mobilizing all security organs, political leaders at the meeting remained unimpressed.
“The prime minister did not furnish any blue-print of how the government would provide security to the voters and candidates during and ahead of the polls,” said senior CPN-UML leader Bharat Mohan Adhikary. “If this government can’t hold elections, then other democratic options should be explored,” he asserted.
The standing committee meeting of the UML last Saturday accused the government and the Maoists of conspiring to disrupt the polls and lambasted the Election Commission for turning into a “mute spectator”. Accusing the caretaker Deuba government and the Maoists of working as tools of “reactionary elements” to disrupt the polls, the party said the chances of the polls being held in November had become very feeble amid growing Maoist violence.
“We have postponed the dates for making our election manifesto public and announcing the names of candidates in the wake of growing uncertainties,” said standing committee member of the party, Radha Krishna Mainali.
As part of the ongoing exercise to bring together all political parties that agree upon the broad framework of the country’s constitution under the same umbrella, a meeting of six political parties represented in parliament met in the capital on Monday and constituted a task force “to identify the main national problems and recommend ways to resolve them.”
“None of us felt that the mid-term elections could be held under the situation existing in the country,” said Nepali Congress spokesman Arjun Narsingh KC. “(We have demanded that) the government should resolve the Maoist problem through talks and create minimum basis for conducting the mid-term elections.”
The situation is such that though the Election Commission has to make public the election programs by Friday (September 28), the government has failed to assure it regarding the provisions of security and phases of elections. During the series of meetings over the last two weeks, officials presented conflicting views. Their latest position is that the elections should be held at least in seven phases at the gap of 15 days each.
The opposition parties don’t agree. They have maintained that the elections should be held in no more than four phases and at a gap of around one week. As the Election Commission is least likely to find a common ground to resolve the issue, a face-off between the government and major political parties can’t be ruled out, sources said.
Maoist Game Plan
As the pro-parliament forces are caught in a quagmire, the underground Maoist party, which doesn’t believe in the politics of ballot, has unveiled its strategy to disrupt polls at any cost. In a joint statement issued on Saturday, chairman of the underground party, Comrade Prachanda alias PushpaKamal Dahal and leader of the “United Revolutionary People’s Council” (the embryonic parallel government of the Maoists) Dr. Baburam Bhattarai have called a three-day nationwide shutdown strike (Nepal bandh) from November 11 to 13 coinciding with the polls.
Interestingly, the Maoist leaders said their party was ready to withdraw the protest program and observe a “cease-fire” if the government was ready to opt for a positive political way out. The underground party has been demanding the formation of an interim government and elections to a constituent assembly as the political solution to the impasse.
The government, for its part, has been saying that talks with the rebels were not possible unless they lay down their arms. “No democratic head of government can be against talks and dialogue,” Premier Deuba told official RSS news agency this week. “But for a permanent resolution of the problem, the Maoists have to present to the Nepali people proof that they are serious and honest,” he added. (See Box)
As the security forces are stepping up pressure against the rebels in their strongholds in Rukum and Rolpa districts (over 100 rebels were reportedly killed during security action in the last three days), the government is said to be weighing the option of resuming peace talks, sources said. While it has been the strategy of the Maoist leadership to throw the proposal of “dialogue” after their guerrillas make daring raids in different parts of
the country, the government, too, is under tremendous pressure this time to open channels for peace.
A group of 10 political parties, including the Nepali Congress and UML, have criticized the government for not responding to their call to take initiative for resuming peace talks with the insurgents. Different human rights groups and members of civil society have also called upon both the sides to end the fighting and start talking.
Amid pressure from within the cabinet to extend the state of emergency when it expired on August 28, Premier Deuba asserted that the emergency would not be imposed ahead of the polls. Will he demonstrate similar courage this time?
According to Shyam Shrestha, editor of pro-left Mulyankan monthly magazine, the situation is such that the Maoists are ready to respond and declare a cease-fire if the government calls the rebels for talks. “But for this, the government will have to withdraw the label of terrorists against the Maoist leadership and the bounty declared on their heads,” said Shrestha. “The government looks indecisive. But if it doesn’t take any initiative, the country will be heading towards a deadlock.”
Though they stepped up violent activities as the state of emergency was to expire, the Maoist leadership issued eight statements over the last two months saying they were ready for talks if the government agreed to go for a positive political solution.
Interestingly, the Maoist leadership, too, doesn’t want to share the blame for walking out of failed peace talks in November last year. “There have been repeated insinuations that since we had broken off the formal talks last time it is now our turn to make a new gesture for the talks. What is basically missed, while making such allegations are that talks are not held between two belligerent groups just for a tea party but for concrete political solutions to the shared problem,” wrote Dr. Bhattarai, in a recent article posted on the Internet. “It should be known to everybody that the other party by not agreeing to our political proposals and not advancing any alternative proposal of its own had in effect closed the door for any political solution and broken off the talks.”
As the crisis of confidence continues between the Deuba government and Maoists, the political parties, too, seem to have come to the conclusion that the forthcoming polls will not help resolve the present crisis unless the peace process is started between the government and rebels. At the same time, they don’t want to portray themselves as being against the ultimate democratic exercise: elections.
A solution to the present impasse doesn’t seem coming from anywhere. “It seems the country is in a ‘chakra byuha’ as narrated in the Mahabharata, which you can enter but can’t get out. Our political leaders don’t know how to get out of the vicious circle they have created,” said Professor Dhruba Kumar, a political scientist at the Tribhuvan University. “Now the country is really in a state of emergency.”
According to Prof. Kumar, at a time when the Maoists are trying to prove that the 12-year-old parliamentary polity in the country has lost its relevance, the political leadership would have to take bold steps to take the country out of chaos and political instability. “First of all, they should deny tickets to corrupt people within their fold and commit for forward-looking socio-economic reforms in their election manifestos,” said Prof. Kumar. “By taking bold decisions even before elections, the political leadership can narrow down the space gained by the Maoists. For this they have to reconsider and re-evaluate the present scenario. And they have to start from themselves.”
As the crisis in the democratic polity and socio-economic spheres intensifies, it is bound to have far-reaching adverse impact on the country’s sovereignty and national security. In such a situation, going to the people and seek their ultimate verdict would be the best possible solution. Only a new government with strong popular mandate would be in a position to start afresh to address existing problems on the basis of national reconciliation and international support. But will the political leadership act? .