Analysis:  Will Thapa resign under pressure?

December 3, 2003
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Kathmandu: The King is in the news simply because he is not listening to the demands of the four and a half party coalition against what they call “regression”.

Girija Prasad Koirala is also in the news for his vitriolic remarks continuously being made against the King. Madhav Nepal, the UML leader is in the news for his (mis)adventure that prompted him to sneak into the Indian territory to see Comrade Prachanda without informing his political colleagues in the agitation against regression.

Comrade Narayan Man of the NMKP is also hitting media headlines for his scathing remarks against the leaders of other political parties housed in the coalition. Better late than never, Comrade Narayan Man has now come to the conclusion that the Congress led by Girija and the UML led by Madhav Nepal were currently on agitation simply to bounce back to power. “They are power lust parties”, opined Narayan Man.

Nepal’s southern neighbor India is in the news for three reasons: firstly for her supposed ignorance on the whereabouts of Nepal’s Maoists leaders residing in India. The Indian CBI Chief is on record to have said that his agency was not in knowledge of any Maoists leaders taking shelter in India. He said this immediately after Madhav Kumar Nepal met Comrade Prachanda in Lucknow, India, and told the Nepali population that he had met the Maoist leader in one unidentified area in the said Indian city that is close to Nepali border in the west.

Secondly, India is in the news because Indian Prime Minister suggested, some say it were in the form of an instruction, this country to form an all-party government and face the challenges confronting the nation of late.

The third reason is that President Koirala once again has told the Nepali press that “Madhav Nepal by sneaking into the Indian territory to meet Prachanda must have embarrassed India”.

Knowingly or unknowingly, president Koirala amply hinted that the leaders’ of the Nepali insurgency lived in India.

To recall, Girija Prasad Koirala a couple of years ago while he was himself the country’s Prime Minister had point blank told that Maoists’ were receiving support from India. What prompted Koirala to say so was, however, made not clear that time.

Bajpayee’s suggestions have had its impact in Kathmandu. It rained in Delhi and all the political umbrellas were up in Kathmandu. This amply suggests that how much Indian utterances on Nepali matters mean to the Nepali leaders.

In effect, the suggestion that has come from Delhi is nothing new for Nepal. At private conversations, all Nepali leaders subscribe to the idea that Nepal be now governed by an all-party arrangement. However, Nepali ideas have simply been rejected by our own leaders because the ideas were exclusively Nepali. Now that India has commanded that Nepal should go on the lines of Delhi’s wishes, it would not be a surprise if Nepal as a nation-state accepts the suggestions or instructions coming as it does from across the border.

Some even have begun interpreting that Bajpayee’s statement were sufficient enough for the ouster of the incumbent Prime Minister Thapa. This section believes that Nepal can’t afford to disobey the Indian desires. Others maintain that it would be folly to sack Prime Minister Thapa on New Delhi’s hints.

Analysts in Kathmandu, however, possess different views. They say prime minister Thapa will continue and would work more energetically in giving his present cabinet an all-party look.

The contention is that, firstly, Thapa will not resign on his own. The King can’t tell Thapa to resign because if the King says so Thapa might inform the King that he will not resign because he is the nation’s prime minister who enjoys executive powers. This means under normal conditions Thapa will not resign. At best the King can sack him using the same charismatic article 127 which a few months back had been used to elevate the ranks of RPP leader-Thapa.

What will have to be watched is how the politics of the nation moves upon Thapa’s return from his SAARC junket.

Does this mean that the stalemate will continue for long? And what is the guarantee that the nation will take a safe road if Thapa is replaced by some other new face? After all those who are in the race for the country’s executive post were all known “politicians” who one way or the other have contributed to this country’s slide in practically all the possible sectors.