Analysis:  Is resumption of talks with Maoists possible!

January 23, 2002
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Kathmandu: Two sets of diametrically opposed theories are at work concurrently regarding the continuation or of bringing about an abrupt end to the state of emergency in the country.

The first set is very powerful in the sense that it is being backed up by nation’s major political parties including a section of the ruling congress itself. This group wishes an early scrapping up of the state of emergency. This set apparently needs the withdrawal of emergency from the country for exclusively three reasons.

Firstly, this camp alleges the government that it is heavily misusing the state of emergency and is harassing the men belonging to other parties plus the common men in the Maoists affected areas. Secondly, this group claims that the military men must not be left to act on their own and that there is no as such any mechanism yet formulated or devised by the government in order to assess the excesses of the army men.

Thirdly but perhaps most importantly, this set believes that once the military men out of their barracks, it would be really very difficult to see them returning back to their barracks.

The third point is indeed very important one in the sense that this set apparently senses a sort of fear that what if the military’s ambitions grew in the meantime? A very important questions indeed but then till to day the military men have not exhibited their extra-political ambitions. Unless found in words or even in deeds there is perhaps nothing to panic.

However, what is for sure is that the military will remain out from their barracks until the government under Deuba so wishes. Deuba has made it abundantly clear that the army men will continue to remain engaged in their declared mission until they bag success.

It is altogether a different matter as to how long it would take to bag the success mentioned by Sher Bahadur Deuba. By the same token it is also unclear is that to bag that success what cost the national population or for that matter the nation will have to pay economically speaking.

However, the second set, which favors the continuation of the state of emergency, too has two reasons to support their theory.

Firstly, this set believes that after the mobilization of the army men, at least the national population has taken a sigh of relief and a sort of peace has again prevailed in the nation as before. A secured and peaceful life apparently guides this set. All that this camp needs is the prevalence of a permanent peace in the country immaterial of the cost involved.

Secondly, this set concludes that the morale of the military men will be weakened if they are told to come to their barracks without accomplishing their declared job for which they have left their barracks.

This notwithstanding, there is yet another theory that is some what different from the previous two sets of theories

The third theory talks more of making an atmosphere conducive for the resumption of the now abruptly suspended talks with the Maoists.

This set concludes that talks and only talks could be a solution to this overly stretched imbroglio. The advocators of this theory believe that since at the existing situation when the Maoists insurgency has pretty weakened strength-wise and that in the process they have lost thousands of their hardcore activists, it could be the best time to invite the insurgents for the talks. If the government does so would send positive signals to the other camp that will in all probability take this gesture as a genuine effort of the State for arriving at a solution to the issue, opines this camp.

Fortunately enough, the nation’s Prime Minister too has hinted that the talks were possible with the insurgents provided they disarm themselves first.

How the government or for that matter the insurgents take the third theory is uncertain. However, what is certain is that talks if resumed would not only stop killing of a Nepali by another Nepali but would also save the country from the approaching economic collapse.

It is here that the government has to exhibit its magnanimity and by the same token the insurgents must also respond to the government’s gesture with equal sincerity.

It is high time that the civil society members, human rights organizations rise up to the occasion and help save the country from going to the brink for obvious reasons.

But who will take the timely and prompt initiatives in this regard is a trillion-dollar question indeed?