Analysis: Congress party under tremendous stress!

January 3, 2001
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Kathmandu: The stage is set for yet another fierce battle in between the two arch rivals in the congress-Prime Minister Koirala and President aspirant Sher Bahadur Deuba.

To recall, Koirala’s opposition camp led by Deuba has already filed a motion of no confidence against the Prime minister at its parliamentary party office.

Reports have it that this Thursday will decide the fate of Koirala or conversely that of Deuba at the parliamentary committee meeting that is scheduled on that day.

A question is being asked everywhere that what would happen if Koirala loses the game or for that matter Deuba meets the same fate?

To find its exact answer is quite difficult at the moment. However, what could be safely said that if Koirala is declared the loser, a sort of chaos in the party as such will prevail in the party for long and that this declaration will push the career of not only Koirala but his supporters to doom.

“More than Koirala himself, the greatest impact would be felt on the political career of the young generation leaders belonging to the Koirala inner coterie and kitchen cabinet members”, said an intellectual who possesses some sympathy for the Koirala faction.

He however, also said that as a person Koirala is an honest political creature. It is the kitchen cabinet and his inner coterie men who misguide Koirala to meet their personal ends.

Conversely, if Koirala manages victory for himself, the days ahead would be chaotic for those who sided with the opposition including Deuba himself.

A victorious Koirala will crush his opposition and will emerge almost like a dictator, say congressites that wish the party to be run with consensus. ” The party would be run then as per the preemptory dictates of Koirala and no one would dare to challenge his orders”, commented a Deubaite when asked to comment as to what would happen if Deuba’s present move goes to the dogs.

Similarly, if Deuba bags victory, that would mean that the ongoing Koirala legacy would come to a grinding halt. This in essence will facilitate the younger generation leaders to keep the party in their grips.

“If Deuba emerges victorious, not only the party but his government as well will in all probability toe the Palace line for obvious reasons”, said a Koiralaite who was asked to comment on the eventuality of Deuba bagging success in his motion against Koirala.

However, the Deubaites summarily reject this allegation and instead say that a Deuba victory would mean “early resumption”of the abruptly suspended talks with the Maoists insurgents.

“Peace would dawn in the nation through the talks with the insurgents”, divulged a Deubaite.

All said and done, the Himalayan question is that whether the impending election that is to decide the very fate of Deuba or Koirala would be conducted in an open or secret manner.

Koirala section has already made it clear that the elections during the voting should be an open affair to which his opposite camp rejects.

Deuba and his supporters appear reluctant in humiliating their own president-prime minister by voting against him openly at time of the election and hence demand secrecy. This section also holds the view that if the voting is a secret one, many declared Koirala supporters would join them in favor of Deuba.

Be that as it may, both the camps apparently remain busy in snatching each other’s voters to bring the election results in their favor. A sort of unprecedented “Horse-Trading” has already begun with the prices fluctuating in between 20 to 80 lakhs each vote. As per Punarjagran, the price has reached a Himalayan figure of one crore each vote. Sounds incredible indeed.

However, these rumors might not be correct, as there is a rule in Nepal to malign the other opposite camp with such wild allegations at times of crises of the sort of the one in which the congress is in.

The congress as a party is definitely under tremendous stress which possesses the potentials of a vertical split if things do not go in an orderly manner on the fateful afternoon this Thursday.

The Deuba camp has hinted that it can go to the Supreme Court if his rival camp insisted on conducting the elections in an open manner.

The moot question is that whether key man Khum Bahadur Khadka sticks to Deuba or changes his side. In effect it is Khadka’s favor that will decide a Deuba or Koirala victory.