Kathmandu: Analysts conclude that the days ahead are definitely very tough if not worse for the Maoist rebels.

The reason is very simple and clear as well.

The events that are unfolding in the neighborhood, the region, and the world at large and the now established supremacy of the lone super power, The United States, forces one to conclude that the Maoist rebels in Nepal will be pressed hard and will be tentatively forced to join the country’s main stream politics.

What is also becoming clear is that if the Maoists do not come to terms with the government of the day and continue to toe the line of violence and terror of the sort of what they practiced till the other day would mean acquiring a devastating posture for themselves.

The threat loaded statements that have come from various quarters or are pouring in from various countries all hint that the Maoists will have a tougher time in the future and will have to console themselves for meager concessions from the establishment.

What is surprising is that the threats from various places, countries and the likes have come almost at the same time which analysts guess could have been made so in order to settle the Nepali imbroglio at the earliest.

The prediction could also be otherwise but the timing of the statements assume significance given the rebels from the “New Regime” agreeing for talks with the “Old Regime”. Question could be raised as to why the statements from three different quarters and three different countries have coincided? Were it a deliberate effort to terrify the rebels who have already concluded their first round of talks with the Old regime? Or is it a diplomatic tact of the countries involved in sending chilling signals to the Maoist quarters to hasten the talks and bag whatever is provided to them? Have the statements come to strengthen the hands of the Nepali establishment at time of the talks with the rebels? If it is so then its corollary would be that the statements have come to weaken the “morale” of the rebels.

Analysts opine that the three different statements must have jolted the Maoist rebels from within. It is altogether a different matter to presume that the said statements could have weakened the morale of the rebels or not. But the fact is that such threat loaded statements does have its impact.

To begin with, it was India’s Home Ministry that declared recently that since the Nepali Maoists have connections with the People’s War Group, PWG, and hence the activities of the rebels must be carefully watched.

According to India, a corridor does exist that links the Nepali Maoists with the PWG men in Andhra Pradesh.

This Indian declaration has come at a time when the Nepali rebels have sat for talks. This has also come at a time when Indian side is yet to lift the terrorist tag from the Maoists. In effect it was India which labeled Maoists as terrorists much ahead of what the Nepali side did. This Indian apprehension has most significantly come after the Nepali Maoists demanded that the 1950 treaty with India be abrogated and the Open border with that country be regulated. This is significant and speaks of so many things unspoken.

Add to this the recent declaration of the Indian COAS Mr. Viz that a sizeable chunk of the Arms were to be soon dispatched to Nepal. This is loaded with political significance indeed.

All put together, what comes to the fore is that India is not happy with the Nepali establishment for having invited the rebels to talks.

But the hard fact is that if it is so then it is India again which had provided shelter to the Maoist rebels. This is surprising indeed. Keep on analysing.

The second major onslaught has definitely come from the lone super power-the United States.

Only recently the US signed an agreement with this country and assured the latter that she would continue her support to Nepal to curb the menace of terrorism. As if this were not enough to jolt the rebels, the United States the other day made it known to all and sundry that the Nepali Maoist insurgency in their eyes were a terrorist outfit.

Elaborating the US annual report which dubbed the Nepali insurgency as terrorists, the US Ambassador Michael E. Malinowski, Monday evening, however, made it amply clear that the Maoists here have been kept in the second list and that those falling in this second category are allowed time to correct themselves.

“Definitely, we are watching the activities of the Maoists. It is not the United States that put them in this place but their own acts of violence and terror has made them to be kept on that list. But yet when they have come for talks, we hope that the talks will succeed and the Maoists join the mainstream politics”, so said the US Ambassador.

Analysing the Ambassadors’ comment what could now be fairly concluded is that the US possesses both carrot and stick for the Maoists.

Carrot for the Maoists is in the form of a hope that the Maoists join the mainstream politics and contribute to the development of the country. This is a carrot also because the list wherein the Maoists have been put is just a list which means that those falling in this category will be watched and if they mend their ways would be spared from the American wrath.

If not then the US will retaliate come what may. This was the implied message what the US Ambassador wished to hint the Maoists who have come to the table. This should be considered to be the stick.

How the Maoists will react to this Interview is not known. However, the Maoists leaders are supposed to have met one US Embassy Staffer, (Ms. Mahoney or Mr. Boggs?) recently apparently after the US signed an agreement with Nepal regarding combating the scourge of terrorism.

This should mean that the Maoists now wish to mend their differences with the Americans and appear to be in a mood to convince the US of their all-good intentions.

The third jolt came from the RNA quarters. The RNA TV program telecast Monday evening (the same evening when US Ambassador’s interview was telecast) which summarily hinted that the Nepali Army’s superiority over the Maoists insurgency have all been attained and the Maoists rebels will be at a loss to face the “highly equipped Nepali Royal Army” should the talks unfortunately failed. The RNA also made it clear that if the rebels once again entered into the jungles and tried to disrupt peace in the country would mean a disaster invited solely for themselves.

It is altogether a different matter whether it was a timely act of the RNA to send warning signals to the rebels at a time when they are on the table to settle the matter amicably or just the otherwise.

All put together, the Maoists are apparently being pressed from all possible quarters. Whether they would yield to these threats or retaliate in their own manner will have to be watched. It will also have to be watched as how these statements make an impact on the second round of talks with the government.

It will also have to be watched as to whether these warnings act like a catalyst or impedes the peace negotiations that are on at the moment.