By Anga R. Timilsina

Nepal’s peace process has been stalled over the issue of “arms management”, a sticking point between the Maoists and the Seven Party Alliance (SPA) upon which the success of Nepal’s peace process largely depends. The SPA wants the Maoists to separate the arms from their army before they join the interim government; however, the Maoists arguing that they will only do so given two conditions: either the SPA theoretically agree on a republican set-up or Nepal Army separate its arms as well. Some argue that it is a “hard bargaining” strategy of the Maoists. Others argue that the lack of trust between the SPA and the Maoists is at the heart of the problem. Nonetheless, it seems obvious to many that the government and the Maoists want CA elections for different reasons: the government with an aim to disarm the Maoists and resolve the Maoist insurgency problem, whereas, the Maoists with an aim to establish a republic Nepal.

The Maoists suspect that the interim government led by Prime Minister Girija Prasad Koirala is plotting a so-called “grand design” to maintain the status quo by saving Nepal’s monarchy, and thus, asking the Maoists to lay down their arms before the CA elections. On the other hand, the SPA and the government fear that the long-standing Nepal’s insurgency problem may not be resolved even by the upcoming CA elections so long as the Maoist arms are not separated by the Maoist Army. Although the Maoists have pledged to accept the outcome of the elections even if it is against turning Nepal into the republic, many doubt the Maoists sincerity and suspect that it may continue the arms movement for a republic Nepal unless its arms are effectively managed.

It seems reasonable to argue that like the Hamas of Palestine or the Hezbollah of Lebanon, the Maoists cannot be a part of Nepal’s government so long as the Maoist Party has a separate military wing. It is likely that just agreeing to keep their armies and arms in camps or barracks under UN supervision and leaving the bulk of the Herculean task of disarmament to the post-conflict period will further add the complexities in disarming the Maoists. Many analysts argue that in order to sustain peace in Nepal, both the Maoists and the government at least need to agree on two things before the CA elections: Separating the Maoist arms from their army and signing a scheme to merge two armies.

However, the Maoists have also raised a valid point that the demilitarization of politics is equally applicable in case of Nepal Army, too. Given its long tradition of loyalty to the monarchy, it is a wishful thinking to believe that Nepal Army is now fully under the control of current civilian government. The laws can be changed in days but the intuitional transformation, which involves cultural change, cannot be done overnight. The biggest fear harbored by the Maoists is this: How can one be fully assured that the same army which used to be fiercely loyal to Nepal’s monarchy and still has many generals, who have close ties with the palace, will not be used and misused to save Nepal’s monarchy? It is because of this suspicion that the Maoists are reluctant to lock up their arms unless the same provision is applied to Nepal Army.

Is Nepal’s peace process on the verge of collapse? It is likely that the Maoists may not desert the peace talks but they may not lay down their arms so easily either. This was apparent when Dr. Baburam Bhattarai, Maoist chief ideologue, recently said, “We are not ready to lay down arms unless a democratic army is formed. The effort to make us lay down arms unilaterally will only derail the peace process.”

What is the way out of the crisis then? Some people argue that the issues of arms management should be left to the team of Mr. Ian Martin, Special Representative of UN Secretary-General. However, Nepal’s case is so unique that the UN cannot do much unless both the SPA and the Maoists agree on the modality of arms management. Moreover, it should be noted that UN doesn’t have any ready-made models for Nepal borrowed wholesale from previous experience. The modality of arms management varies from country to country and is based on the characteristics of conflict and the nature of settlement. Of course, the UN has directly played a vital role in Cambodia, Mozambique and many other conflict-emerged countries where it had the mandates given by the Security Council and the Peace Accords to maintain security during the transition period of those countries. However, the UN is in Nepal to help in the peace process but not to monitor and enforce the Security Council’s mandates. So, the primary responsibility of arms management lies with the Maoists and SPA. Nevertheless, Mr. Martin is doing his best by sharing his views and consulting with the SPA and the Maoist leaders.

Now the question is: What would enable the Maoists to agree on the separation of their arms and army? In order to persuade the Maoist for disarmament, both the Maoists and the SPA need to agree on a “Comprehensive Framework for Arms Management” which will include several components: A roadmap for transforming Nepal Army, a plan for decommissioning the Maoists, and a scheme for reintegrating the Maoists into the transformed Nepal Army.

During last three months, Nepal witnessed several transformations. The name of army was changed; the king’s privileges including the title of the Supreme Commander of the Army have been stripped away; and new law has put Nepal Army under civilian control and parliamentary oversights. However, the army has to go a long way in order to fully institutionalize these changes. Most importantly, Nepal Army’s negative image among the public will not go away unless it clearly distance itself from the palace, revamps promotions and leadership development and improves its records on accountability, transparency, and human rights. Moreover, there is a need to downsize Nepal’s army in order to make it more professional and efficient. However, before deciding the size of the army, the following things should be taken into account: an assessment of the national defense environment to include challenges and threats, and an assessment of the purposes and roles of military forces; an assessment of operational requirements, current military capabilities, and the gap between them; and a complete plan for transition to capabilities, structure, armaments, personnel and resource requirements, and an assessment of the costs to implement the plan and to maintain these structures once established. A detailed study can follow up the agreement and the UN experts can be of great help for this purpose but the SPA and the Maoists should initially agree on to: (1) downsize Nepal Army by providing a package for retirement for those who have served more than 15 years or more; (2) Hold the army fully accountable by taking strong actions against those who have been involved in gross human rights violations including disappearance and torture; and (3) Commit fully to implement the findings of the Rayamajhi Commission and punish those to be found guilty of unlawful killings during the April protests.

Second, the Maoists should agree on separating their arms from their army with the following additional agreements: (1) Create a new ministry to oversee the Maoist Army and their expenditure. During the interim period, assign this ministry to a leader from the Maoist Party; (2) Put both Nepal Army and the Maoist Army under the control of National Security Council chaired by the Prime Minister but the Council’s decision should be approved by the interim parliament; (3) Agree that the Security Council will serve as the integrated headquarter of both armies. With the help of UN experts, the Council will develop a plan for merging two armies within next four months or so and the plan will have to be approved by the cabinet and the parliament. The merging will start immediately after the CA elections; and (4) Agree that the access to the arms and armies, will be limited to the UN representatives and the Security Council.

Third, in order to make sure that the arms will not fall into the hand of the Maoist militia, the king’s supporters and any kind of criminal elements and to create an intimidation-free environment for CA elections, both the Maoists and the government should agree to confiscate the weapons and prosecute people caught with weapons after the completion of the cantonment process.

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