If the current weather pattern is any indication, Nepalese farmers may have to brace for more hostile conditions in the days ahead. As the monsoon is still the determining factor for the entire agriculture cycle, any disruption in annual rainfall and rise in temperature will have a significant impact on food production. Because of delayed monsoon and inadequate rainfall, the far-western and mid-western regions of the country are facing a major drought. As the government is yet to announce a relief package, those supposed to feed the rest of the country are on the brink of starvation.

By KESHAB POUDEL

agun Chaudhary, 35, a resident of Dumki village in the far-eastern district of Kailali, did his best to plant paddy in July. He joined fellow villagers in propitiating the rain god. But nothing seemed to work. Around the same time, farmers in the eastern part of the country were battered by rainfall. More than 300 people died in floods and landslides triggered by torrential rains.

River in hilly region : Heavy erosion
River in hilly region : Heavy erosion
Despite the drought in the mid- and far-western regions, the Ministry of Agriculture is yet to announce a package to deal with the emergency. “After the collection and analysis of data, we will prepare a package for the far-western region,” says a spokesman for the Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives. “Since the weather pattern in August was slightly better than the previous two months, farmers have heaved a sigh of relief. But we will announce a relief package for farmers.”

Had the government announced such a package in early July, the situation might have been slightly better for Chaudhary and his fellow farmers. Since June and July mark the beginning of main paddy season, any break in rainfall during the period has a major effect on overall production. Farmers expect production to fall by at least 50 percent.

Although the slightly better rainfall in August has brought a sigh of relief to farmers, it is too late to make a difference in the total agriculture production. Marginal farmers like Chaudhary are confronting a bleaker future.
Amid limited resources, the government is forced to make hard choices. “As the government is busy assessing the damage done by the floods and landslides and providing immediate relief to the victims’ families, we are yet to assess the impact of the drought,” says an official at the Ministry of Home.

On what basis will the government announce the relief package in the drought-affected areas, then? Few seem to know. It is certain, nevertheless, that the large number of marginal farmers in the mid- and far-western regions will require some sort of urgent package.

As delays in the onset of the monsoon and declines in rainfall have occurred several times in the past, the government must work to expand irrigation facilities in the terai, the breadbasket of the country. In Kailali, ensuring adequate discharge of water in the Mahakali irrigation canal could reduce farmers’ dependency on rainfall. Speeding up work on the Babai irrigation project would support farmers in Bardiya and Banke districts. The government should consider exploiting ground water in areas of the terai where surface water is not available.

“This year’s monsoon played a chaotic role since its arrival in the country,” says Madan Lal Shrestha, deputy director of the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology (DHM). “Spatial variability of the monsoon conditions brought natural calamities like devastating floods and landslides in the eastern and central regions, whereas severe drought conditions prevailed in the western region.”

Widespread precipitation occurred throughout the country, with rainfall exceeding 1,000mm in many places of the central and eastern regions. Lower rainfall was recorded in the western part of the country. Precipitation exceeded normal levels in the central, eastern and parts of western hilly regions. Below-normal rainfall was observed in the rest of the kingdom, with a nearly 50 percent decline in the far- and mid-western regions.

Pokhara, Kathmandu, Dhankuta and some other places of the central and eastern regions received record high rainfall in July. Kathmandu, Dhankuta, Hetauda and Rajbiraj received 177 mm, 142 mm, 302 mm and 245 mm respectively. Meteorological centers in the far-west recorded their highest-ever monthly temperature, according to the DHM.

Just a few months before the onset of the monsoon, the country saw an upsurge of malaria in the far-western and central regions. Other diseases broke out in Chitwan and other parts of southern plains. This supports the conclusion of some scientists that the weather is becoming not only warmer but also more extreme.

Although Nepal is yet to draw firm conclusions, these trends, each in its own way, has ominous implications in the productivity of the country as well as in the spread of infectious diseases in the terai region.

Research has shown that weather patterns in Nepal have been changing over the years. Over the last few decades, Nepal has seen a drastic shift in the meteorological conditions. Kathmandu is witnessing more and more hazy days, while rainfall has become increasingly erratic. According to the DMH, the 1980s recorded some the warmest years in average temperatures.

The weather and climatic conditions are dictated by topography. In a country like Nepal, having a complex topographical feature, the task of predicting and responding to climate changes becomes all the more challenging.

There were significant levels of precipitation in the monsoon season (June-September), with July having recorded the maximum. The annual total precipitation over Nepal is 1906 mm.

In recent years, Nepal has been experiencing fluctuating weather conditions that go on to change the social and economic structure of the country. Bad weather causes hardships to the people and massive loss of life and property. If the rain falls on time, the people have more food to feed.

Although Nepal is encouraging its citizens to use nature-friendly energy and practice sustainable forest use, the country suffers from the “Asian Brown Cloud”. The new weather phenomenon, primarily caused by wood smoke, vehicle exhaust, and industrial fossil fuel burning, was the focus of a United Nations-backed study by 200 limatologists.

The ‘Asian Brown Cloud’ is a cocktail of pollutants up to three kilometres thick, stretching from Afghanistan in the west, over India, Burma, southern China, large parts of South-east Asia, and ending over the Pacific.

As well as causing respiratory diseases, the cloud prevents up to 15 percent of sunlight reaching the ground, retarding plant growth. It is believed to be responsible for bizarre weather patterns, increasing rainfall in some areas while reducing it in others.

“The weather pattern is gradually changing in Nepal and there have been frequent disturbances in the monsoon,” says Dr. Shrestha. “This year the strong presence of western disturbances stopped the monsoon’s westward expansion from the east.”

Although Nepal emits very small amounts of green house gases, it continues to face growing levels of pollution in the sky. In Kathmandu valley, the growing number of vehicles has sharply increased pollution levels.

According to the DHM, this year’s monsoon advanced into the eastern and central regions on June 15, covering the remaining parts of the country by June 23.

This year’s monsoon, which was delayed by five days, was preceded by good spells of rainfall in May. “But the first surge of monsoon remained weak in the kingdom,” says Dr. Shrestha.

Although many meteorologists in the region blame the brown haze for the recent change in the monsoon pattern, Nepalese experts are yet to confirm such a link. The record shows that rainfall was comparatively lower than last year’s (2010mm in most parts of the country except a few places in the western and eastern regions). The highest monthly rainfall (850.1mm) was recorded in Syangja in June. Dhangadhi observed the lowest monthly total of 47.8 mm, a 34-year record.

Because of weak monsoon, the rainfall was poor in June, pushing farmers in many mid- and far-western regions to leave their lands barren.

The rainfall declined by 50 percent in Dhangadhi, Jumla and Tamghas. The mean temperature, the DHM says, remained close to normal this month, with slight warming in most parts of the country and slight cooling in some parts of terai and high hilly region.

The longer term perils of erratic temperature fluctuations have been predicted by scientists working for the United Nations Environment Program and the International Center for Integrated Mountain Development.

According to their studies, 20 glacial lakes in Nepal could soon overflow, imperilling tens of thousands of people. The scientists say the lakes are filling up because rising temperatures are melting the surrounding glaciers and snowfields that feed them.

From China to South Asia to Europe, nature’s havoc has been particularly harsh this year. The search for lessons continues.

Flood defenses tend to be neglected when severe floods have not occurred for a long time. River systems change, naturally and as a result of development. Deforestation and development around rivers reduce the ability of the ground to absorb water, leading to more rapid run-offs.

The time has come for Nepalese experts and officials to study the changes in the climate more extensively so that people can make appropriate adjustments and respond in a better way.