Thanks to the political instability and disruption in the economic activities, job market continues to shrink as a large number of youths have difficulty to land a job. As the country’s youth, educated as well as uneducated, are not finding any job in the market, they seem to have emerged as a major force, which is exploited to prolong political instability and engage in destructive activities. At a time when generating employment opportunities seem to be nobody’s agenda, the country will have to face many phases of similar political disruptions in the future until and unless these youths are ensured decent jobs

By KESHAB POUDEL

Ganga Bahadur Thapa, 20, a resident of Taruka VDC of Nuwakot wants a job. Thapa, a bachelor student at Mahendra Ratna Education Campus, has roamed scores of places including the houses of senior bureaucrats, industrialists, political leaders and relatives. But he has obtained nothing but empty assurances. He was asked to wait till the return of normalcy and growth of economy.

Pressed by his family members back home, Thapa is desperate to have a job. As a sympathizer of the CPN-UML student wing, finally Thapa knocked the door of a student leader to explain his predicament. Thapa was assured of a good job once the movement against regression becomes successful. To secure the job, he is now taking part in the agitation.

“Our leaders have already declared that we will be awarded in accordance with our role in the agitation. If I were injured and treated at hospital, it will be an additional qualification for employment opportunity,” said Thapa.

Krishna Phuyal, 21, a resident of Thulopakhar of Sinhupalchowk district has a different story to tell. With the dismissal of Deuba government by King Gyanendra in October 2002, Phuyal was among the first youths to join the demonstration hailing King’s actions. Phuyal, an undergraduate, took part in a number of demonstrations holding the slogans hailing the role of King, lured by the promise of a job in a private bank. Frustrated by the dilly-dallying tactics of one of his leaders, Phuyal is now considering to shift his loyalty to other agitators.

“If I could not get a job, as assured, I will be in the street supporting the agitation against the regression,” said Phuyal. “I now realize that their assurance was just to keep youths like us in their fold so that they can organize big rallies.”

Thapa and Phuyal are not the only two examples how unemployed youths are becoming easy prey to political agitations. There are many others who are taking different sides in hope for an employment. But nobody knows whether their quest to secure the job will be fulfilled?

Like Thapa and Phuyal, an estimated 300,000 youth enter the job market every year but only a few lucky thousands – around ten percent – can expect to secure jobs. Recent political instability and violence have reduced the economic growth, which has, in turn, shrunk the employment opportunity.

Rural Unemployed

In rural areas, the problems of semi literate and illiterate youths are different. Since they don’t have any option in securing job, they are prepared to do anything for the sake of employment.

Along with the educated but unemployed youths of urban areas, there are a large number of unemployed and underemployed youths in rural parts of the country. In every household, there are at least a couple of youths searching for job.

Since the insurgency has already disrupted the process of self-employment in the rural areas, the youths are moving to urban areas. In Kathmandu alone, there are a large number of migrant workers working in the service sector.

Thanks to the construction boom in the valley, many youths were absorbed by this sector. Those youths who can afford initial costs, are eyeing the foreign market.

Following the closure of public sector enterprises and reduction in the government jobs, the rural youths had very little chance to secure a permanent job.

The private sector is also not in a position to create massive job opportunities. Despite being labor intensive, Nepalese laborers have little chances to secure jobs skill-oriented industries like carpets and garments.

Agriculture Sector

Agriculture sector is still the largest sector of employment but it is yet to modernize so that it could absorb more number of people and generate more income. The agriculture pattern is still subsistence-based and there is no possibility to secure the cash benefit.

Economic reports show that the contribution of agricultural sector to national economy has been declining in recent years. Its share of GDP has been below 40 percent for the last 3-4 years, probably due to the faster and dynamic growth of non-farm sector as well as labor migration.

Because of geographical and climatic varieties, Nepal has a huge potential to increase investment in the agriculture sector by developing the supply of the off-season vegetables and fruits to the neighboring countries. Since school education here lacks any approach towards self-employment and entrepreneurial skills, every one prefers to join salary-getting jobs rather than engaging in creative ones.

“We need to attract the rural population in the agriculture sector by giving them training and skills to produce more cash crops including vegetables and fruits,” said an economist. “This will give good opportunity to the rural population and generate the employment opportunity back home.”

But this is easier than done. In the last eight years, the Maoist insurgents have virtually destroyed the limited infrastructures including the banks and micro-credit centers leaving the villagers without such basic institutions.

“I see many possibilities to revive all these institutions in case the country secures peace,” said Dr. Shankar Prasad Sharma, vice chairman of the National Planning Commission (NPC). “There is potential to achieve higher economic growth.”

Education And Employment

In a country where more than 15 percent of educated youths are unemployed and more than 42 percent of them are underemployed, there are always possibilities of seeing them being used as regular foot-soldiers by various elements to create uncertainty.

Since the Maoist violence and political instability continues to disrupt the process of industrialization, there are few possibilities of creating massive job opportunities back home. Many youths even with higher education degrees, nowadays, apply for jobs in the Gulf and other south east Asian countries. “Only a high economic growth can generate employment opportunities but it requires political stability,” said an economist.

There is no hope for the immediate relief to these youths. Despite the assurance of different governments, no one is seriously making efforts to open up new opportunities for them. State has not taken the problems of youth seriously.

“Nepal can settle the Maoist problems and political difference sooner or later but this nation has to enter a difficult cycle of growing population and unemployment,” said a western diplomat. “You can perhaps tackle the Maoists but it is not so easy to open the new industrial establishments to recruit youths.”

According to the Tenth Plan, produced by the National Planning Commission, out of Nepal’s 23 million population 10.4 million are expected to be economically active population. At the end of ninth plan in 2001, 9.9 million people were employed and only 5 percent of the populations were fully unemployed; 32.3 percent of population were underemployed and this was equivalent to 12.4 percent of total unemployment – making the total unemployed population at around 17.4 percent.

The National Census Report 2001 of the Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS) shows that more than half of the population in Nepal is between 14-29 years of age. The present age structure suggests that a large number of youths are coming in the employment market and they also need resources to increase basic facilities such as education, nutrition and health.

“If we are talking about total unemployment, it is only five percent but underemployment is 32 percent. If we convert that underemployment into total unemployment, it comes to around 17 percent. If we take this in general, the situation is quite alarming,” said Dr. Shankar Prasad Sharma, vice chairman of the NPC.

Youths have been the part of the political disruption since the restoration of democracy in 1990. Whether during the tenure of the government of Girija Prasad Koirala or CPN-UML or Sher Bahadur Deuba, these youth forces were part of the political instability. From burning public properties to causing heavy damage, the jobless youths remained strong forces that were exploited to create anarchy in different periods of time.

According to a report prepared by Narayan Manadhar, executive director of Industrial Relations Forum, the number of workers in the established factories continues to fall over the years. In 1991/1993, there were 2575 establishment with 347,164 workers and workers per establishment were 134.82. In 2000/2001, the number of establishment went up to 4296 with 394,541 workers. Interestingly, the number of workers per establishment went down to 91.84.

The number of industries fell down since many government undertakings were shut down and many workers were laid off in the last few years. New industries were hardly established. In 1995, 2,575 establishments were registered but only 282 industries were registered in the last six years.

Thanks to the political instability and growing violence, the trend to establish the industries have almost grinded to a halt.

Political Parties

Nepal’s main political parties absorb tens of thousands of youths under their various wings. CPN-UML is said to be the largest political industry in terms of the number of youths it has absorbed followed by Nepali Congress.

According to the party sources, CPN-UML has more than 300,000 youth members actively working through student wing, democratic youth wing, people’s volunteer wing and women wing.

Nepali Congress, country’s largest democratic party, too, is not far from recruiting the youths. The party claims that it has more than 200,000 youth members who have been participating in the political process through Nepal Student Union and Tarun Dal.

Other political parties including Rastriya Prajatantra Party and other smaller communist outfits also have student wings to attract the youth workers. Even the Maoists have powerful student wings. Luring youths in their own organization is one of the main targets of all the political parties and organizations.

At a time when the country does not have new industries, many youths see taking the membership of different political parties as a good way of securing job later on when the party comes to power.

“It is interesting to note the same faces of youths taking part in anti-corruption rally denouncing the followers of previous government. Next day the same faces could be seen taking part in the destruction of public property at the call of five agitating parties,” said a senior police officer, who has been discharging duty in the valley for the last two years, on condition of anonymity. “There are groups of youths who seems to have specialized in the agitation.”

Sociologists, too, agree that one of the Nepal’s major challenges in future will be to adjust a large number of youths. If the state cannot provide employment, they will be a force of destruction and instability forcing every government to bow down.

“You don’t need Maoists to create troubles in future. The present unemployed students will be enough. Now these youths are under the discipline of political parties, tomorrow if some other unsocial elements take them under their control, the situation will be out of control,” said Dr. Rishikeshab Raj Regmi, an anthropologist. “The society will have to face more instable situation in future,” he predicted.

The unemployed youths were headache for then prime minister Girija Prasad Koirala when the youths were used by his rivals to destabilize his government but now all other political parties see them as messiah of democracy. Unlike in the past, many Nepalese are now fed up with the disruption caused by the protesters and many accuse them as being Nepalese who are working against Nepalese since the roadblocks, general strikes and other disruptions affect none others but their own brethren.

Foreign Employment

At a time when the country’s industrial sector is not showing any good trend to absorb the country’s growing labor force, the foreign employment has been an only outlet. According to the recent figures by the Department of Labor and Employment Promotion, 260,000 workers went to overseas from 1993 till the end of last fiscal year. This is the government data whereas the major bulk of overseas workers go on their own. As such, the actual number of such overseas workers is much more.

The country’s labor plans include ambitious target for expanding the number placed in foreign employment from 104,739 to 550,000 in 2006/07. According to the Population Census 2001, national report, published by the Central Bureau of Statistics, there were 762,181 Nepalese working abroad during the period of census and that 589,050 of them were working in India alone.

“The government has not yet realized the beauty of foreign employment and the benefits from remittance. In the home front, a workable modus operandi to activate foreign employment opportunities should be developed which demands formulation of Acts and implementing rules,” said Dr. Bishwambher Pyakuryal, a renowned economist.

Despite formulating new programs that target the youths, there continues to be a large number of youths who are unemployed. If immediate actions and plans are not executed, these youths will work to destabilize the political and economic process pushing the country into perpetual chaos.