By Ms Uttara Ghimire

Nepal and China are celebrating the 50th anniversary of the establishment of their diplomatic relations through the holding of several programs all throughout this year. Dozens of seminars, workshops, bilateral to and fro visits, art and dance troupes, circus shows, signing of commercial agreements, bus service, etc. have taken place.

What made this event grand was the February 1st move of the King and the distancing of major donors of Nepal inter alia the UK, India and the US. This gave the Chinese the desired opening to maneuver inside Nepal in a spectacular fashion. In March this year, the Chinese Foreign Minister visited Kathmandu to express solidarity with the Nepalese government followed by the landmark visit of Nepalese Foreign Minister Ramesh Nath Pandey to China where he had a rare meeting with Chinese President Hu Jintao along with other senior ranking leaders.

Why this was a ground-breaking visit was because of the Chinese pledge to give Nepal 12 million dollars of budgetary support in cash which Kathmandu can “use in anything that it wishes.” Even major donors of Nepal seldom provide cash support directly to the government and most of their assistance is in the form of aid or loan that normally go to NGOs. The latest visit of the Chief of the Army Staff of Royal Nepal Army Gen Pyar Jung Thapa comes as no surprise as the ground-work of the concreteness evolving in Sino-Nepal relations was being laid out from quite some time.

Nepal closed down what it termed the “illegal” office of the Dalai Lama in Kathmandu for reasons of sponsoring pro-Tibet activities; a decision Beijing is deeply grateful for. Nepal did not support the G-4 resolution in the United Nations which although the voting never took place has made Beijing forever indebted to HMG. Last week, Kathmandu and Beijing both supported each other’s candidature at the UNESCO executive board and got elected. The Chinese have now reciprocated by pledging their support to help the Royal Nepal Army. On his arrival at the Tribhuvan International airport, Gen. Thapa disclosed that China has promised to provide eight million Yuan (approx. Rs 72 million) as military aid to Nepal. He said the assistance could be used by the RNA for its development.

Although the pledged military support to the RNA is meager compared to the Indian and US support, there is one question that remains to be answered. Did Gen Thapa disclose everything of the understanding that was reached in Beijing or are there some more things that he doesn’t want the Nepali public and the international community to know? Either way, it is a diplomatic collapse of major countries such as India and the United States that have had decades of political leverage inside Nepal and the Royal Nepal Army which is basically trained, equipped and groomed by the armies of those two countries.

By relying on the false propaganda that Nepal was “being isolated and beleaguered to restore democracy at the earliest”, and the self-assurance that Beijing would not come “to aid Nepal by antagonizing its relations with Washington and New Delhi”; what the governments of these two major countries have managed to do was clearly push Nepal into the Chinese lap. Fortunately or otherwise, Kathmandu is now benefiting from a new ally in the north what the Nepalese Foreign Minister has termed “an all-weather friend.” The tactical blunder on the part of Delhi and Washington was first they entwined themselves with Scandinavian countries and the UK that have absolutely nothing to lose from a Nepal becoming another junta led Myanmar, tough North Korea, prosperous Szenchen or a nuclear Pakistan. Second, by placing themselves at the high moral ground of democracy and not supporting the announcement of municipal and general elections they have further reduced their chances of advantage inside Nepal’s shaky politics. Now, either way they are bound to lose.

The Chinese are so smart and clever in expanding their area of influence especially around their immediate neighborhood that their competitors sometimes cannot even realize that the game is almost over. The fact of the matter is that the Dalai Lama office in Kathmandu was closed down by the Sher Bahadur Deuba government in January this year, not by the royal government headed by King Gyanendra. It is the same Deuba who is a darling of the US. and whose release from the prison Delhi has publicly called for. It is Girija Prasad Koirala who as Prime Minister signed major contracts, financial deals and projects with the Chinese such as the Rasuagadhi-Syafrubesi road, the construction of the Sushma Koirala hospital, telecom projects, and a long list that cannot even be duplicated here is considered a close friend of Delhi, although not even a single key project was ever executed by Kathmandu with India during his long tenure.

The CPN-UML on the same vein publicly claim themselves to be following the same model adopted by Deng Xiaoping and that the “two communist parties of the two countries are closely interlaced like brothers.” It is the leaders of the CPN-UML that have visited China at the invitation of the Chinese government the most number of times in the last 14 years of multi-party democracy.

The Maoists on the other hand have no grievance against Beijing and would not want to provoke the country of Mao-tse-Tung, their dear leader. It is not certain whether the 7 agitating political parties are obliged towards India or the US-UK alliance for their supposed backing to their agitation which itself has been a non-starter. Some leaders publicly opine that India forever plays a double game and fiddles into the feuds of internal politics of Nepal. Anyway, the self-styled leaders are famous for their ungrateful and selfish attitude and time will only tell how the support from the donor countries especially India and the US has changed their mentality.

This leaves the world’s only Hindu King who is revered also by all the Nepalese and Tibetan Buddhists and the Royal Nepal Army – the last citadels of power in Nepal that the Chinese would want to allure into their fold. Thanks to the ridiculous policy adopted by India and the US, their traditional hold over these two conventional forces is now in shambles. The European Union too led by an unnecessarily blunt British envoy has damaged its long-term prospects in Nepal without any of its own fault. The British Ambassador’s recent criticism of announcement of elections hasn’t done any good to the EU’s image of an unbiased and non-partisan donor. The Chief of the Indian Army Staff who is also the honorary general of the RNA has not visited Nepal after he took his office, an exceptional faux pas that the Indian Army is likely to face the brunt for a long time inside Nepal. The lethal supplies continue to be halted by both India and the US leaving a cavity for the Chinese, Russians and the Pakistanis to come and fill in.

The last time that Nepal purchased arms from China was in 1988 resulting to the economic blockade by the then Congress (I) government in India. But this time round even that option seems to have been cleverly weighed and examined by Kathmandu. The Chinese have now “donated” cash to the RNA with which it can “ask” whatever it wishes without disclosing what the material is and without disturbing the 1950 Treaty. Afterall the Chinese aid is to facilitate the RNA which is fighting terrorism against an outfit outlawed by Delhi and Washington not Beijing.

Furthermore, the oil and gas pipelines from Central China are already in operation till Lhasa and is being brought to Shigatse which is just across the border of Nepal. In the eventuality of a border closedown, another panorama of opportunity will just be opening from across the border with Tibet. Even the leverage of energy security that India has against Nepal will swiftly tumble leading to a total breakdown of Indo-Nepal relations from which both Beijing and Kathmandu will have little to lose and other countries such as Pakistan will then harvest the maximum from.

King Gyanendra can then go along the roadmap that he has charted for his country and his subjects without anything plausible to fear of. The Maoists too will be crushed with the Chinese help and Nepal will then position as a secure kingdom with massive Chinese investment and hardware. Fearing the Chinese veto at the Security Council, it is highly unlikely that the UN Human Rights Commission can go beyond the usual censoring of Nepal. The examples of Serbia or Rwanda do not imply to a favorite middle kingdom on the laps of the dragon. Where in China’s neighborhood has the UN succeeded to send its peacekeeping troops except in Cambodia after it was too late?

The only method to correct this trend is a win-win situation for all-the monarchy, the political parties, the Maoists and the major donors inside Nepal. The holding of free and fair municipal and general elections will ensure a democratic path for Nepal and the Nepalese and a respectable position for the monarchy which no doubt is the only stabilizing factor left inside the country. The monarchy and the parties together then stabilize Chinese interests, American lobby and Indian pressures. It will also be a victory for India and the US that have been clamoring for democracy from the last 9 odd months. An elected parliament can then begin negotiations with the Maoists.

The only problem in this sensible way out of the present crisis is the obstinate mind-set of the seven agitating parties that want the power to be handed over without getting elected and the obtuse Nepal-policy adopted by the major donor countries that has locked themselves with their own key. If they wish to reverse this trend, they urgently need to impress on the seven political parties to forget about agitation and participate in the forthcoming municipal and general elections.

The only riddle is that the Chinese too have not supported the announcement of municipal and general elections. They don’t need to. Whether it is held or not and whoever wins, they know they have already won the Cold War inside Nepal.