By Dipta Shah

“The beginning of the end” read an article published in The Kathmandu Post. But really, “The end for whom?” questioned a friend.

Although largely speculative, an answer may be sought from the flurry of activities that have unfolded in India over the past week. With the shuttling of politicians to Delhi and the publication of the 12-point common agenda (between the 7-party alliance and the Maoists), the pieces of the puzzle are gradually coming together.

As the saying goes, “(the) beauty (of this outcome) is in the eye of the beholder.” For the Nepali people, the prospect of Maoist integration into mainstream politics is a positive outcome. After over a decade of senseless violence, at least a glimpse of peace rests on the horizon.

For the ever-agitating political parties, their claim to have brought the Maoists into the mainstream is an achievement that will partially exonerate their past ills. The long overdue “self-evaluation” undertaken and the commitment “not to repeat mistakes of the past” are appreciated. Adherence to these vows in practice will be the real test of commitment.

Although kudos may be shared by the whole seven-party alliance, Madhav Kumar Nepal in particular deserves recognition for steering this initiative to fruition. This leader’s interpretation of the attrition of his party base as the UML’s infiltration of the Maoist rank (and his determination that the Maoists can be enticed to join the mainstream) have been proven correct – at least for now.

As for the Maoists, the reduction of their demand from abolishing the monarchy to “establishing absolute democracy by ending autocratic monarchy” is a gigantic compromise. Clearly a crawl in the right direction but a fraction of the distance that must be traveled to absolve the Maoists of crimes against humanity. This significant point aside, it must be said that the Maoist compromise is a positive one (if sincere).

Now, moving on to what has become the default point of deflection (rightfully or wrongfully) for all of Nepal’s woes – the monarchy.

Based off initial reports that have surfaced in the media, it appears that the 12-point agreement between the parties and the Maoists has sealed the fate of the Nepalese monarch. As clearly outlined in the 12-point agreement, the certainty of an end to direct rule is evident.

However, also glaringly evident is the absence of a term that has come to symbolize the 7-party movement and one that has remained at the core of Maoist demands – “republic.” When evaluated in light of this realisation, the 12-point agreement is simply an alternative to proposed elections that the 7 Parties (for various reasons) are unable to participate in.

The agreed upon path to first restore parliament, then form an all-party government and then hold “elections to a constituent assembly through dialogue and understanding with the Maoists” is a rather long-winded plan. In a lay man’s terms, this amounts to keeping the Maoists “hooked,” the monarchy in “tow” and giving the mainstream parties sufficient time to re-group and re-establish contact with their rural electorate.

Although negotiations between the Maoists and the 7-party alliance have been progressing for some time, it is unfathomable to assume that informal dialogue between agents of the Maoists and those of the Palace have also simultaneously progressed? As for interaction between the King’s representatives and the 7-party alliance, a recent function organized by the Carter Center, the National Democratic Institute and Liberal Democracy Nepal was a much publicized (and to a large degree), successful confidence-building event.

It takes little imagination to comprehend why certain media segments may jump to conclusions regarding the end of monarchy in Nepal. However, this bland interpretation does not do justice to the immensely complex message encapsulated within the 1,008 word translation. It is unlikely that even 10,000 words would resemble a marginally sophisticated transcription.

So, without delving into too much detail on the text of the agreement, one may start by evaluating the circumstances that culminated in the formulation of the 12-point agreement. To accomplish this, one must first evaluate the Indian psyche and its role in the events that have unfolded in Nepal.