Kathmandu: Rumors last week of an immediate resignation from the Prime Minister upon entertaining questions regarding the Lauda air deal from the CIAA were quashed immediately by the Prime Minister’s reply and simultaneous attacks upon the anti-corruption body of intervening in areas of jurisdiction of the elected government. Rival Krishna Prasad Bhattarai was quick to demand resignation on moral grounds no doubt, but the Prime Minister insists that the game against him is played against to “sabotage democracy” and he will not resign in order to preserve it.

Whatever, as rumors go, the Prime Minister’s resignation on grounds of principle is said to have been discussed in the cabinet and the Prime Minister’s refusal came after his “kitchen cabinet” advised him against it. Also, the Girija lobby in congress was unwilling to hand over the reigns of power to K.P.Bhattarai lobby and the possibility of a Ram Chandra Poudel candidacy for the post as deputy Prime Minister is also said to have been seriously entertained. Obviously, such a decision would have initiated a serious second-generation fracas in the congress and it is unlikely that both Girija babu and Krishna Prasad Bhattarai would want to invite this at this juncture.

The fact remains that Girija Koirala is the strongest in the congress central committee and in the parliamentary committee and thus refuses to budge. But, this very fact has succeeded in isolating the elected government. The isolation of Girija babu is complete.

It is this that suggests that a breaking point in Nepal’s brittle democracy has arrived. The image of a lone Girija tackling the country’s pressing problems with a fragmented political party providing synthetic majority in parliament is hardly conducive to a democracy threatened by an all-round non-performance and challenged by the Maoists’ insurgency. The power game is likely to shift in anticipation of the fiscal session of parliament. A non-performing parliament as witnessed in the winter session is very likely.

And then?

This politics of stalemate is being capitalized upon by the Maoists movement. The virtual breakdown of law and order is being provided opportunity for reprieve by the insurgents who are now said to be in effective control of a third of Nepal’s seventy-five districts.

Curiously, the issue of Army mobilization and the reluctance of the Army to take on the insurgence in the absence of parliamentary consensus took a back seat last week. The Girija lobby appears not to have been successful in budging the Army from its stance regardless of charges from the Girija media of alleged links between the monarchy and the Maoists; the Army and the monarchy and the Maoists and the Army.

Serious constitutional issues have been scratched at the moment outside the Maoists movement and the moral implications of the Lauda air deal. There is the fact of course, of constitutional jurisdiction between the CIAA and the elected government. But there is also the obviously somber matter of what to do with the citizenship bill now that the apex court has decided that its inclusion in the finance bill is unconstitutional and that the citizenship bill brings the constitution under review. The finance bill is by convention approved by parliament and by the monarchy.

These very fragile issues apart, a non-functioning government mired in internal conflict and pounced upon by all sectors outside its immediate lobby compound the state of affairs in the country. The delay in decisions regarding the Maoists solution, for example, is beginning to provoke other more serious questions regarding government intent. What, for example, happens if the military is invited in too late?/ Is it that the ultimate solution to the Maoists issue is sought from the inclusion of the Indian military in the movement?/ Is, for that matter, the systematic emasculation of the Royal Nepal airliner designed to ground Nepal’s direct international air links? Are, as another example, the anticipated street-designs of the opposition provoked by the government wooing a B’desh type state of affairs to abort the scheduled visit this month of the Chinese Prime Minister Rongji?

These are not negligible possibilities in the context of continuing conspiracies in a region which has just witnessed the largest Indian military exercise said to be aimed at Pakistan and China at a time when India after hosting the Russian Federation foreign minister Mr. Ivanov and is all set to play host to senior American military personals amidst shifts in postures and alignments.